Barometric

Of ALL the charts and ALL the runs I have seen over the last decade, the ECM is quite frankly the best I have ever seen from an IMBY perspective. With not only the deep cold of the 850's you then have the surface cold from a frigid continent to factor in too. IF those charts verified and its a big IF after 120-144, then we would have snow depths rivalling 1987 if not topping it. Back then we had 2-3 days of continuous snowfall, on the ECM tonight we have literally days! I am saving this run, taking it to the bank and drawing on it straight away (obviously once cleared) Not only do we have the incredible potential from 120 onwards but we have great charts from tomorrow night for the SE and after 5 days of damp rubbish here in Kent it is such a relief to now have the cold weather here in place!! Honestly I think xmas has moved from the 25th to the 1st this year for me. We are on the cusp of something truly remarkable without a doubt. James

To be honest Neil thats probably the best attitude to have. Snow events have been known to crop up regularly within 24 hour time frame down here in Kent and it wont be any different during this spell. Hell, the cold air isn't even here yet. Like I said wait until around 9pm before getting too disappointed. Having lived in N Kent for over 20 years, local knowledge counts for a fair bit. I think it was 2005 when we had the run of very cold E-NE winds at the end of Feb begining of March. Nothing was forecast and a swathe from the Eastern end of the Isle of Sheppey right through Faversham and south had around 6 inches of powder (I think Whitstable and Herne Bay were hit badly too) and here in Iwade we didn't get a flake. As ever it depends on where the streamers take hold and at the moment the wind direction is perfect for N and Mid Kent (Swale and Medway) at least until midnight to 3am when the zone will then move to the Eastern part of the county esp around Thanet and down to Deal, Dover and Folkestone. Keep the faith guys James

I think by 9pm we will have a better idea as to the events leading into NYD. Already we have seen sleet and wet snow here in N Kent this afternoon. Its all about the radar now and I still am cautiously optimistic of seeing some falling, settling snow here by the end of the night. Anyone would think the cold spell was just about to end Next week is when the real fun starts. Happy New Year to everybody. James

Just had some sleety snow on my trip to Strood from Maidstone about 30 minutes ago. Temp was 5c when I came to work this morning at the top of Detling and is now down to 3c so all going in the right direction (from car thermometer). James

I haven't posted much on Net Weather in the past but I would like to start by saying a massive thankyou to Steve M, not only for his educated analysis but also for his enthusiasm, optimism and good old fashioned excitment for the weather in the UK and our small corner of this country especially when talking of all things wintery. I thought I would find it hard to find anyone with my enthusiasm for weather and especially cold and snow, but then realised that everyone on here has this shared passion. I will do my best to keep everyone updated during this spell and being placed on the N Kent coast just south of Sheppey, I should recieve any 'NE action' before the rest of you. If its snow here you know that downwind its definately gonna be snow as the last spell and many others have proved. We got around 5cm here yet 5 miles inland, Detling recieved 15cms and Tonbridge Wells getting on for 20cms!! Its goning to be a great 2 weeks worth of winter weather and glad I can be a very small part of it all. James

Central London would probably remain at or just above freezing during daylight hours and of course would not be effected so much by snow cover and low level cold as much as the coutryside around. Night time minima would be around -1 to -5. However, my guessing is that the longevity of the cold WILL cause infrastructure problems and thats before dismissing the distinct possiblity of frontal, convective or trough induced snowfall. IF the wind aligns itself perfectly then there is no reason whatsoever why a Feb 2008 event would not reoccur blanketing the Capital in snow. Move out of central London into the Bexley foothills to the south and east and temps would be significantly lower and also the chance of snowfall would increase too with added elevation and more exposure to a potential NE wind and associated streamers. James

I agree and over the last 36 hours the colder air has been digging down a little earlier with each run, which does coincide very nicely with our 'wind' window. Ah Dec 2005, a great little spell that one. I remember driving down to Ashford and over the N Downs just to the east (must have been 1-2 days after the snowfall and the day before the snowy, albeit brief, breakdown). 3pm, sunny and the temp was around -2. It was a stunning scene and one that I am sure will be repeated over the coming 10-14 days somewhere in the SE if not everywhere in the SE. The absolute beauty of this predicted spell is its longevity and its potential not only to deliver snowfall but also the potential for some extreme night time minima. I remember when I lived in Essex during 1981 and remember popping out every hour as an 8 year old boy and checking the temperature on the side of the shed. We had many nights in that spell where it hit -10 to -15 and many times it was that before I had gone to bed!! I could reel off so many stories of cold weather having lived through the late 70's, 80's and 90's but I am sure it would bore everyone to death. The weather fascinated me just as much then as it does now. James Your optimism always inspires me Neil LOL!! You'll get your snow between now and March, it's almost a given! James

I think there will be a few suprised people in the far SE come New Years Day. Like NSSC, I too have been watching developments closely over the last 36 or so hours and must say that I am quietly confident of a white New Year in my part of Kent. The window is admitedly, quite small (around 24 to 36 hours, the latter in E Kent) but it is there nonetheless and has the potential of delivering snow that could quite possibly lie for the next 2 weeks, especially on the N Downs and High Weald, looking at current model predictions. Plus I am sure there will be other noteable snowfall here in Kent over the coming 7-10 days, most of which will only be firmed up 24-36 hours prior to happening. For me the period to watch is midnight thursday to midday friday, any earlier than that and I think things would be a little marginal certainly here anyway, not so further inland with 200m elevation. Walking back from the village pub early friday morning could be very interesting indeed and make up for the lack of snow over christmas. James

Well here very close to the North Kent coast in Iwade the temp briefly made it to 1c before heading back down around 3.30ish. Had frost all day in the garden which for this part of the world is a rarity in itself. All eyes on tomorrow PM. With elevation I think there could be a few suprises and those east of the meridian should see the snow stay as snow. Then heading on into thursday early am and through to sat early am here in Kent we have a cracking shot at some pretty good totals. Usual suspects will do well and I expect N Kent to do rather better than those further west this time round as the wind is looking more of a NE'ly than an E'ly as it was last year, where the Thames streamer set up. I expect the Downs around East Kent to do well ie Dover/Folkstone and then along to Charing, Lenham, Detling and Bluebell Hill. The western Downs will get some but my thoughts are not as much as last year, those further east and north should do better. If I was to stick my neck out, somewhere around Charing/Detling could hit 15-20cms with low lying areas picking up 5-10cms in favoured spots. I dont really care what happens after saturday, once the snow is laying and we get some very low minima the cold could well dig in, especially if the rest of the country joins in with lying snow and also the near continent. Thats my take on it and yes it is Kent biased because I live there!

what a beautiful morning here today near the N Kent Coast here in Iwade. Clear and sunny with temps at a chilly -2.8c Strangely enough our very first air frost for this winter season and for here (around 2 miles from the sea) thats quite an air frost. My interest lies with tomorrow afternoon and evening as the low moves down over the bitterly cold stagnant air over the extreme SE. I see around 1-3cms which although wont cause any significant problems, it will be nice to see. I wouldn't be suprised to see the temp rising any higher than 1c today and not much above freezing tomorrow (and the really cold air isn't even here yet) So far so good here and I see many more little features cropping up at very short notice over the next 5 days. James

My interest lies in the late thurs/fri/sat window, this is when I feel that Kent has its best chance to see some convective snow. With cold 850's, lower heights, a biting east/northeast wind and dew points below freezing, anywhere could see snow but as always areas such as the North Downs and Weald are my favoured spots for anything particularly significant. After looking at some of the data available I think 5cms is quite possible especially if we see any streamers set up, which IMO could give depths of up to 10-15cms in more favoured locations around the Thames Estuary. After that my feelings are that we will have to wait for little disturbances and bands of showers working their way down country to give us any significant snowfall and these can pop up inside 24-36 hours so there will be a lot of nowcasting and radar watching. Then of course we may or may not have a breakdown which could give us transient snowfall here, which may or may not be noteworthy. So all in all lots to look forward to over the coming 5-7 days here in the extreme SE I feel. James