BlueHedgehog074
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Posts posted by BlueHedgehog074
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According to that precipitation map, I'm just about on the on the line between the snow and sleet (lol).
It does seem like that this update is slightly more favourable for snow, with some higher snow risks and still with some good 850 hpa high-up temperatures, although I kind of agree about the fact that perhaps the GFS Models and Maps are over exaggerating the low. It does seem a bit sudden that some places would be getting 30 or more mm's of precipitation on Tuesday with a highish snow risk, though I suppose it's not impossible.
What I find amazing is that I think it was either yesterday, or the day before that the GFS Models and 10 day Netweather forecasts showed more of a warmer spell for next week, yet the Met Office showed the possbile snow risk extending to more Southern areas in their outlook. I understand that the forecasts and that can change alot, especially after 7 days, but still kind of interesting with the predictions.
Perhaps the GFS Models and Maps have detected a new trend, which the other forecasts have not picked out, although admittedly I could be wrong, since I'm still trying to become more and more familiar with all the models. I suppose should the various forecasts and models keep showing different things, we might end up getting just a cool spell with the odd spell of wet wintry weather, but still with the Northern parts having the highest chance.
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I get the feeling the most of the country will experience at least one wintry/snowy event sometime next week, even in the South, with the snow risk looking particularly good at around 162 hours and over. I would say that the 850 hpa high-up temperatures do look a little bit tight at first, however, for some Southern areas. But the colder high-up temperatures from the North do look to start edging more Southwards the further on into next week.
I would have gone as far as saying that quite a number of places have the snow risk for more than one day, but considering the models and weather forecasts can change from time to time, I think I'll probably just stick with a one-day chance of wintry weather for this area for the moment.
The only other problem, too, is that the Met Office outlook seem to restirct the risk of snow over Northern Hills, so I'm sort going to balance my prediction against the outlook and some of the models, plus the 10 day NetWeather.tv weather forecasts.
Certainly still some good mild/warm weather for most of us first before the colder spell (although obviously wet at times, too).
(Note: this being my first post in the Model Output Thread, so I'm hoping it's okay).
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Full 8 okta cloud cover with gentle rain falling. Temperatures on the cool side at 9*C with a South-South-Easterly wind. Pressure around 1011 hpa and falling.
Could be some heavier bursts of rain later on.
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A mostly clear day so far, with patches of cumulus-like cloud dotted about the place.
The winds are mostly light with temperatures almost reaching the 12*C mark.
Some strong sunshine and a good visibility, too.
Cloud cover: around 4 oktas, but looks like it could increase to 5 oktas.
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I am actually quite surprised to see how much the temperature has dropped. The temperatures is currently 8.4C, although it feels warmer than that. Drizzle and rain has invaded the land from the big cloud in the sky.
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(Edit:)
@Thundery Wintry Showers: 18*C? Wow!
I agree with clee_snow - it makes me begin to wonder that 20*C could easily be reached from this warm spell.
(Currently cloudy here with temperatures breaking the 15*C shield. But only just).
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Not bad, man. You could really hear the rumbles quite well and the sounds almost make you feel as though you are at the place with the stormy clouds above you. I sometimes tend to find the thunder isn't always as noticeable to hear on some of the videos, but I suppose if it's raining or hailing really hard, then the thunder would probably be muted out a bit.
In a way, I'm kind of looking forward to seeing the first thunderstorm of Spring. The only thing that is putting me off is that I sometimes get frightened watching the lightning, which is a shame really because from the distance, they do look spectacular.
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While it's true that we can experience poor Summers, some of the Summers, particularly the ones around the 2003 - 2006 period have been quite inviting I feel. I mean, fair enough, your view of Summers being mostly rubbish is your own opinion and the last few have indeed followed that route (except possibly August last year). However, I still feel we get enough variety from Summer to Summer, with wet/cool and dry/warm Summers, to prevent a good portion of these from being disappointing.
I suppose like with Winter, a scorching soggyless Summer could be seen as a bad Summer for some people, yet for others it could be seen as a big welcome - (the same for a Summer that is cool and damp). As it happens, though, I found Summer 2003 and 2006 a little too hot at times and was always hoping for a cloudier cooler day to break up some of the long passages of hot dry weather.
Personally, for me, a good Summer would be one where the temperatures varies from around 20*C to 30*C, and with a mixture of sunny dry weather and showers; thundery weather also included.
Really hoping that a warmer drier Summer can be accomplished this year. That would be great.
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Similar to Kent Snow with temperatures around 12*C and with South Westerly winds. It has been mostly cloudy, although the clod has gradually thinned out with some hazy sunshine. Pressure = 1019 hPa.
Weather rating: 90%
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Some of the local Netweather forcasts seem to suggest temperatures may exceed 15*C in some spots during this mild/warm spell. A little bit warmer than the 13*C mark (when I had a check two days ago). Considering the winds are looking good for drawing some warmer air from the South, temperatures of 15 certainly could be achieved just as longs the weather doesn't end up being too cloudy/wet.
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Mostly cloudy with gentle Northerly winds. Surprisingly, the temperature is hovering just above 2*C despite the blanket of cloud. Pressure is around 1028 with a 22km visability.
A risk of an overnight shower possible according to the radar, (although may brake up before hand).
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A mixture of sunhine and showers, which occasionlly joined together to make some longer periods of rain. The clouds is patchy at the moment and the temperature is around 6*C.
Wind strength: Light winds generally
Overall Cloud Cover: 90%
Pressure: Around 1024 and looks to be rising
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I would admit that I would not mind seeing just one (or possibly two) more snow event(s) just to really finish the remains of Winter 2009-2010 off, but would also like to see some warm days with temperatures near or around 15*C - perhaps warmer than that.
I think with temperatures struggling to reach double figures for a good while, especially in the North, I can see why some people are wanting some much warmer weather to arrive.
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Overall, an overcast day with a blanket of thin cloud (I think it may have been a Stratuscumlus cloud, or similiar) hanging about for most of the period. From time to time, there were a few bright spells, particularly during the morning. The winds were mostly light with some cool - mild temperatures. Sunshine was a little hazy, too.
Currently, overcast with a more general Stratus cloud dominating; a small risk of light patchy rain later.
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I like to think of the first day of spring as being March 1st as this conveniently slots the four seasons very neatly into quarters of the year, Spring being March to May. Although having said that I do take the Vernal Equinox as being the 'proper' start to the season and this is not until the 20th day of this month. Either way it may officially be spring but this won't necessarily mean it feels like it, I think nature has the last say in when spring really begins and this year there are only a few small signs that it has started to take place. Yes, I have got some snowdrops in flower but for me the full flush of spring is bright yellow daffodils in bloom on the road sides, catkins on the hazle trees and bluebells in the woods, the smell of grass that has started to grow green again and the sight of lambs in the fields, for me this is when I know spring has really sprung!
Ali
Indeed. I think sometimes although the official date has arrived, Spring may still be hiding around the corner, or has already greeted us before the actual day.
Spring does seem to be taking its time this year, but the dry days since the start of March has been helping to make it feel Spring-like out their, despite the fact the temperatures have been on the cool side.
In Ireland, we were all taught in primary school, that Feb 1st is the first day of Spring; May 1st is start of Summer, etc. This is based on the old pagan Celtic Calendar. Wiki: Irish CalendarSo, if you were to ask random people in an Irish street when Spring begins, the most likely answer you will get is "February 1st".
Some of our TV weather presenters often try to point out that these dates are all a month too early, especially during February, when the members of the public start moaning about 'unseasonal' cold weather in "Spring".
Wow.
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I find this quite interesting really because although, meteorology-wise, Spring is supposed to begin on March 1st, I have always gone with the later day of March 21st for the official start date of this season. But, because the weather and temperatures can behave differently from year to year around this period, I wonder should Spring just suddenly start as soon as it reaches the official date(s)?...
I suppose a good thing about setting dates is that it helps us to keep track of the seasons, and know roughly when to expect changes to the weather.
For some us, though, Spring probably doesn't arrive until the start of a mild/warm long sunny spell, or when new shoots begin to show on trees and shrubs. Maybe you're one of those people that has to see a particular creature, like a Robin, to know that Spring is in the air.
Clearly, snow can still be evident during the start of this warmer period with strong North-Westerly winds bringing intense wintry showers, but as longs as I have seen the first dafodils in flower, then I think it's safe to say Spring has started. I do sometimes wait until March 21st depending on what the weather has been doing.
On the whole I think it is fair to say that we all have different views of Spring's start date, but when does Spring start for you, and when should it begin?
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I agree. It's been very pleasant outside in the last few days, and wouldn't mind this continuing for the next week or so.
I'm surprised to see the temperatures climb up to around 8*C now, as it feels quite cold out side.
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True, and it's even possible to have snow as late as mid-April, although quite unlikely.
Really loving this sunny dry day today and makes a nice break from the usuall wet and chilly weather.
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Sorry, I think that was little harsh of me and I really wish I left it now.
I suppose the storm was still exaggerated a little, and that it's not been the only time a storm has turned out to be not quite as bad as expected.
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I guess the next two weeks isn't looking too bad at all with a good amount of dry weather ahead. I still have wonders for what Thursday could do, though. The local ten day forecast shows it being dry, yet the Met Office predict some rain/sleet for that day. Will have too see what the further updates show.
Currently cloudly with a temperature of 5*C, with one or two brighter spells breaking out from time to time.
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@fatyido: To be honest, even if the storm did not turn out to be as bad as the BBC said for South of England (I ended up with pieces of light rain and some wind), I think the BBC still made the wise choice to predict the worse outcome and that it would be rather stormy, just in case it did actually happen. And it would have also given people the chance to prepare.
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Yes !
I wasnt looking at detailed forcasts just yet (leave that till September)
Expectations will be very high I guess, if you any snow put it in the fridge for next year just in case
(lol) Sorry about that.
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I'm really not looking forward to the gloom, wind and rain this low will bring us (despite the fact I don't mind heavy rain), but what do you think the chances are for some of us getting snow from that deep low tommorrow?
(Edit: I did orignally think that tommorrow afternoon would give us our best shot for something wintry)
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Although this Winter has, so far, turned out be cold, frosty, and in some aspects, quite snowy, especially for Eastern/South-Eastern and Northern areas, I think next Winter could be a warmer one I think.
Perhaps not much warmer than this Winter, and the frequent stoppage of the usual mild South-Westerly winds, which happened this Winter, may continue for the next few Winters. Afterall, the Winter before this was on the cold side (although not quite as cold as this one). And this could mean that we are going through a period of some very chilly Winters ahead, with chilly Northerly and Easterly winds, and the blocking of mild Atlantic weather.
However, one reason why I still think next Winter would be warmer is that this and last Winter could be one offs, and if I had to look at the history of our Winter seasons, there would probably be some years where it was cold one Winter and that was then followed by a milder one. And then a chillyier Winter happened after that...
Also, should the rest of this Winter suddenly become much warmer (even though it looks set to be cold and drier for the next two weeks), then this could be a set up for what the weather could be like, generally, for the rest of the year. This would also include the beginning of Winter 2010/11. Then again, this may depend on the developement of lengthy warm/hot spells and the frequency. Should it suddenly become really hot and dry in the Summer, this could show the lack of South-Westerly/Westerly winds, which would bring the cooler weather in the Summer, and that the Easterly or South Easterly winds are dominating the country. These winds may continue to be a popular trend, with the continued barrier to the West stopping the Atlantic winds breaking through, although I do get a feeling that once we get towards Autumn, this pattern may be destroyed - and areas of low pressure may try and push away the high pressure from the South.
I reckon this would then help the South Westerly winds to return; and bring in some mild Autumn weather. Alot of power may be generated from the Atlantic, particularly if the winds are strong and were constant - the cooler winds may struggle to win against the Atlantic, at times. These South West/West winds may contain a lot of moisture, too, and building up intense precipitation to our areas. It is this eventual cause, I think, will help make next Winter warmer, and probably wetter. With the Atlantic blocking to consider, I do think this will still make some come backs, and high pressure should still set in from time to time, therefore not making Winter 2010/11 overly mild.
Note: This is probably unlikely happen (since this is mostly based on my opinion), and I am still learning how the Atlantic blocking works and how the placement of the high and low pressure determines what the weather will do (as well as convection). But I hope this still gives one or two ideas about what Winter 2010/11 could be like.
Today's Weather
in Weather reports
Posted
Has been mostly overcast with some spots of rain in the afternoon. This then cleared to leave some patchy looking clouds in the sky. The Temperatures are currently around 13*C - just enough to make it feel warm outside. Pressure is gradually falling (around 1002 hpa at the moment).
Could be a risk of a storm, or some moderate showers tommorrow.