SnowBallz

Yes, very much so. And guess what, it's "a week away" Why is it soooo hard for people to understand that, if scenarios like this are forever "a week away" then, just maybe, it's never going to happen? And, instead of lending any credence to models (which are then disproven) perhaps these people need to dismiss such patterns from the outset? Isn't that true 'progress'? But, by the looks of things, people don't like either admitting that they are wrong, or simply don't want to learn from their mistakes. Probably a lot of ego involved me thinks.

The only REAL consistent trend I've seen over the last few days, is how this Easterly remains within FI - and it never ever gets any closer than a week away, even though time is progressing. Now what does THAT say to you? To me, it says that there just isn't enough there for the Easterly to develop, and that's why - when med-term resolution starts kicking it - this vaunted Easterly is kicked out as being the ludicrous idea that it always ever was. Yesterday 8th Feb was sounded out as being 'the day' to look out for, in respect of this Easterly verifying. You watch, 8th Feb will come and 8th Feb will pass...and yet there will still be people looking at charts, saying that the Easterly is a week away. Personally, I think we're going to remain in a 'much of a muchness' pattern, with nothing eventful at all really; won't be too cold, and it won't be too mild either - which some might argue is classic end of winter weather. We then crash into spring and watch the evolution take place. That's how I see it. Granted it's not as exciting as wrist-slitting over an Easterly which is never going to arrive - but at least am aware of this fact right here, right now.

I can't understand why you see celebratory smileys cropping up when people reference the very outer ranges of the GFS models, almost as if it's nailed-on to verify? It's almost like they enjoy the wrist-slitting - much like why a gambler gambles. Also, amuses me to see premature back-slapping. If 'epic' runs verify, then I'd be the first to shake a few peoples' hands, but there's no way I'm gonna congratulate someone just because one model run signals what they've suggested...in 7+ days time. No chance. What I've noticed over the last few days (and countless runs now) is that yes we're trending towards a bit of a cold spell again. But am I going to go OTT in either direction, based on the output of one run? Hell no! I might be relatively new to model watching, but what I've quickly learnt is that it's just not worth taking notice of models suggesting the glaciers heading South again. Until proven otherwise, consider it a quirk - and concentrate on what the overall trend is. That's what I do, and it's saved me from many a smashed keyboard :lol: I enjoy this thread, but do think the peaks and troughs tend to make it a bit of a 'murder mystery' at times. We all know that +300 is just a complete waste of time, so why do people still continue to post charts out in that range?? Baffles me, it really does. No doubt this post will be moved/deleted - and this thread will continue unabated. C'est la vie.

Why would someone from Lancashire be reading the London / SE thread? Would that be your little inferiority complex rearing it's ugly head again? <_< Yup, thought so.

No, my snow just melted. Shall I tell everyone it's melting? Because, obviously, everyone cares about that.

I'm just bored of reading about Kent having tons of snow, then whinging when it's stopped. Annoying.

It's because 90% of them can't afford to live down here. I'd be jealous too!

Tell me about it. Having a good ol' cry coz it's melting. As if we care.

4-5 inches for London?! HAHAHAHAHA yeah right, whatever :lol:

not that good with compasses me

Let's hope it turns WSW

about time too!! i wont be going anywhere today, not having some idiot crashing into me :lol: LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOOOOOOOOOOOOOW I want the whole of London to be cut off, wipe us out completely :wub:

i can be your hero bay-be

Woooooah, I thought it was just the 'Southern softies' who couldn't cope when a little bit of snow comes our way??? You mean...Northerners lie to us??! <_<

HORRIBLE chart

Is Kent near Bristol?

Yep, I hope it comes further East and wipes out London

It's always the way, North London barely ever sees any snow at all. In fact, London in general. What gets me annoyed is when it's forecasted for us - for once - and yet apparently we're not even allowed to talk about it, because of all the Northerners crying themselves to sleep with their pathetic inferiority complex It's grim up norf

Same here. I keep seeing people posting up charts 'oh, look at this at +192!!' seemingly oblivious to the fact that time passes with every hour? Presumably, as it gets closer to +0, their little charts look crap so not interested in it anymore - must find more rubbish to post up. People trying to be a bit too clever I think.I think more time should be spent concentrating on what's going to happen upto a maximum of +72hrs, and less guessing on the rubbish 7/8/9 days away (which as we all know seems to change in one way or another on every single GFS run!) If a super computer can't work it all out, then doesn't that say something?

Well, people have posted charts for +192. Roughly in my head I thought that was about 9/10 days away. It's actually 8 days. Sorry. But anyway, these charts are supposed to show synoptics which will herald End of Days scenarios with huge snow levels and cut off the SE (etc etc...) Okay, they might, but my point is that all this hyperbole seems to be based on a model which is notoriously prone to error, so much so that - for the last 'main event' (the LP on Monday-ish) it couldn't even work out the track of the system, until the very final moments. Personally, I'd treat such an error (and consistent error-proneness) as pretty serious, and enough of a reason for me to discount it's output, for the time being anyway. By the way, I'm judging the models (GFS, UKMET, EMC, etc...) on their performance - this isn't about me being sceptical because I'm not old enough to remember that it's happened before. Granted, we're in a very cold period/winter but we've seen on a couple of occasions where the models have predicted 'event' type solutions, only for them never to materialise. For me, this is another event type scenario and - based on the models poor performance prior to this - I'm treating it with due scepticism. As far as I'm concerned though, it's a good enough chance for the models to regain their credibility though. The good thing though is that, all we have to do is wait until +192 hours to see whether my cynicism is warranted or not I'd GLADLY eat plate after plate of humble pie though, as a major snow event for the UK (I'm not IMBY) is long over-due.

Where did I say that LP was going to bring a foot of snow to our area (the SE) ??? That was never forecast. What WAS forecast, was that places like Wales the NW and somewhere across the Midlands area would get absolutely deluged by snow. But it never happened did it? The only 'forecast' for the SE would be if the cold air got down quick enough for us to catch some back-edge snow. But, the chances were very remote and - which DID happen - we were forecast to get a deluge of rain. I'm not IMBY though, I'm talking about what the models forecasted for other areas and what actually happened. The two were massively different, and the GFS couldn't even agree on the track of the low right up until hours before it came "GFS backing down at the last minute". If it can't even model extremely short-term trackings of weather systems, then why hold it in such regard for predicting something 9/10 days away???!! The whole point is, people really need to stop getting themselves worked up into a frenzy about models which forecast the End of Days. Temper your enthuasium with a healthy dose of realism and you might not find yourself being so disappointed when the country carries on as normal, after a couple of hours of sleet.

No, it wasn't going to be a UK wide event - but, in the end, it turned into the biggest non-event since, well, the last one which the GFS predicted? You know as well as I do that, when the GFS predicted that LP moving up from about 5/6 days out, there was pandemonium about how much snow it would deliver as it crashed into the cold air feed chasing towards it from our NE. In the days leading up to it, the Welsh and those in the Midlands/North were falling over themselves wanting the LP to remain on a Northern track (as predicted by the GFS) as they believed that would deliver them their Armageddon snow event, while others maintained that it would be better for a sustained cold period, were the LP to follow a more Southerly track. In the end, it kinda went somewhere in the middle - and delivered zilch. Ask yourself: how often do charts some 9/10 days out "verify" ? You know yourself, that 9th/10th January will probably be absolutely nothing like what's being shown on these charts. That's why I don't get all the hyperbole. Don't mind people getting enthusiastic, but at least be realistic. Shut down parts of the SE? More likely that roadworks would.

Hmm. Why do people STILL allow themselves to get carried away when models like GFS predict Armageddon type rubbish? So often we've seen the models do this, and yet - when it gets closer and closer to the event - what happens? It's an anti-climax. I wish it wasn't, and I wish we'd get these massive snowfalls that would "cut off" certain parts of the country, but it's just not gonna happen. The models might predict it, but then - give GFS another couple of runs - and, by tomorrow, they'll be predicting something completely different. That's how it seems to have gone this winter. The latest monumental disaster was the LP which moved up from the South at the beginning of the week. That was supposed to deliver "over a foot of snow!!1!!1" to many areas. Did it? Nope. Nice to look at, but this will not happen. Happy to eat humble pie, but I just know I won't be.

Woohoo, yiddo yiddo YIDDO! I got a dusting here lastnight, was surprised to see it! Only a dusting though, not enough to go and build a snow Niko :wub: There's a football thread???????

And proud