igloo
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Posts posted by igloo
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only saving grace after Dennis the mennace has his day the AO looks to be dropping like a stone from the 20th. how far it drops will determine if there is one last chance of colder weather for the end of the month. but still it doesn't look like it will go negative either the AO or the NAO
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has been white out conditions up here for the past 2 days thunder snow and lighting at times with gale force wind I have about 6cm lying but I'm at 1000ft asl
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even my better half who was born in South Carolina was commenting its colder there than it is here quite bizzare.and my pear tree is starting to bud.
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over on the fantasy thread there still in la la land about snow.but in the REAL world we will have to watch over the next 3 weeks for some real stormy weather so batten down the hatches everyone some really nasty storms on the way.
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22 minutes ago, Don said:
Just as I thought. Interestingly wasn't the AO almost off the scale for negativity in January 2010 around -6?
does look like it.was many years ago
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I'm one of the lucky ones had snow twice about a fortnight ago got about 1cm then a few days ago got about 3cm.even the higher hills up here over 2700ft are bare with nothing.never in my life I have seen this.
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6 minutes ago, Don said:
Have we ever seen the AO as positive as forecast?
never it's of the scale.they will have to make a bigger scale in future years I would guess +6 it's touching unbelievable.
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it doesn't get any worse than this we have a Incoming hurricane for mid Feb. who says the PV will slow down if anything it's even stronger than mid December very grim
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37 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:
Hello everyone
Its been a while since I've had chance to have a look at any charts or post anything, so I thought I'd dig out the CFS four week anomaly charts.
Well, what can I say?! If you fancy some Atlantic driven weather, with the threat of more winter storms, then the next three weeks should be right up your street!
But I have to say that I've noticed that anomaly chart for the 21st to the 27th of February... A proper taste of spring? Or like last year Summer in winter? But either way that does look very settled... And after this train crash of a winter, I dare say that most of us will be looking for some nice spring warmth.
As always this is the CFS, so please take these charts with a gritter load of salt.
the CFS weekly charts have been bang on all season to be fair. not once has it had any type of northern blocking or scandi highs and there is nothing bar the same showing for the next 4 weeks.one thing I have notiched these weekly pressure charts either from the JMA or CFS or any other model are far more accurate than the day to day model runs
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5 minutes ago, BurwellWeatherWatch said:
that sounds quite pleasant, if somewhat unseasonal.
But again I am struggling to see why the next four weeks are automatically written off, esp with such model volatility in the last few days. i think anything beyond later next week very much up for grabs.
forget about Feb not going to happen just take a look at the AO that's the only thing you really need to look at as it's very accurate.
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I think most of us are just looking for spring as this winter season has just been hopeless it just isn't going to be sadly.i haven't seen a winter season where the AO is so high it's near going of the scale AGAIN by mid fed.
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2 minutes ago, swfc said:
EC 12 looks dry and cool.would say it's not as good as the oz.dry will do I guess
slowly but surely it getting flatter with each run.looks like it will be a halfway house between the GFS.as long as the HP doesn't sink to Europe there is still hope.
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14 minutes ago, snowray said:
a clear outlier might as well just bin it.just hope the GEM is the same
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2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:
The gfs seems to be making more of the low se of Greenland
yes it looks like that low will scutter any change of presure building in the mid Atlantic.anther topiler by the looks of it
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who no's we could well get a SSW event. the GFS is hinting at something colder and now the CFS is showing even colder stuff we can only dream
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4 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:
Just a. Matter of time. Strat wise there are changes afoot. Plus, it's picking up on ssw signal... Hopefully this will Manifest intself in the charts over the emxt couple of days fingers crossed. Maybe even the pub run..
a SSW event isn't forecasted just a slight displacement.in any case we had one last season and got nothing from that one so I think your hope casting sorry
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mild wet and windy first half.second half more settled and colder my guess 6.2c with 100mm rainfall
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not wanting to put a dampener on things but this evening's ECM I suspect is a cold outlier.looking at the AO and NAO nothing suggests in any way colder weather with the AO still very positive and NAO also Similar
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6 hours ago, qwertyK said:
I thought the record CET was 7.5 in 1916?
Could this be a record breaking january or will the cold snap that has started return it to something less mild?
well if these charts verify we could still do it it's one beast of a Bartlet this chart.more likely Feb will be a heatwave t shirts and shorts who no's there's a first for everything
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this evening's ECM at least gives us a 24h colder spell before the slug moves back in.will take it as we may get nothing else for the next 4weeks.after the last slug
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another euro HP on the way relentless stuff. is this another 4 weeks worth? with the PV also gaining again in greenland things are looking grim going forward very sad
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3 minutes ago, trickydicky said:
A few more winters like this and surely they are going to have to give up and be just club run tows like in the Lakes and Pennines?! That Lecht picture is pretty depressing!
and it ain't even cold enough for artificial snow very sad state of affairs
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38 minutes ago, jules216 said:
since November 1st I have had 2 days of snow falling each time appŕox 4cm snow fell. It is the worst winter I remember for snowfall here in Slovakia,we have plenty of inversion cold but thats it. No snow forecast for at least another 2 weeks with seasonals going for even milder February. Kudos to seasonal models, @Tamara and few others who didnt think blocking will be present,also Cohen did OK overseas. False signal caught many who believed jet stream would remain on southern trajectory in January which isnt the case,only trace precipitation here in January so nothing managed go cross Euro high and will not do so until end of the month
give it another 10 years even Iceland will struggle for cold things are getting so bad.one euro Hp after another it seems now. model watching now is becoming pointless as most people would agree.as you can see from image its atrocious
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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:
Quite a cold ecm in the near term frosts and seasonal weather
nothing but average temps at the surface to my eyes. and looks very likely it will be a cloudy high so I don't see much frost.
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Model output discussion 02/02/20
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by igloo
Not true I'm in South Western Scotland granted the southern uplands.had snow a few times this season just last week 10cm for a few days.way better than last season.but still it's way disappointing than decades ago.