igloo
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Posts posted by igloo
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14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
Sorry igloo,that chunk would just get modified drematicly by the long warmish sea track that will kill the cold uppers,give me an easterly anyday as the track across the north sea is minimal plus with a continetal feed of dryer air is much better IMO.
Well we dont all stay in the south of the uk i have done very well from fairly similar setups as this all season and have snow still lying from november it would suit me and a few million just fine i think
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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:
How could that happen ?
Not sure but the GFS is showing it crazy charts the last few days from it you have to admit
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12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
The gfs and ecm at 192,very similar!
the 18z is miles better than the 12z suit.
there is some consistancy at last
-8's incoming in from the east/northeast at 210
Forget the east have a better look to our west if that lump PV lands on top of us it would be snow magedan
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13 minutes ago, Ice Day said:
Well since the high point of last nights 18z, it's all been a bit underwhelming (yes, I am understating affairs). GFS has reverted to blowing up mega lows in FI with a 935 low to the west of Iceland at 222
Its more likely than not im afraid its not called the icelandic low for nothing i used to think feb was the time when the PV started to weaken but over the past few years it has not been happening its just the way it is nowadays sadly
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Well i hope you haven't told the children to start waxing there sledge its another epic failure from the GFS just like the 100s before some people on this forum are delusional and seem to think we are still in the 50s mad
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The GFS is churning out some crazy charts over the past few days this one is no different there must be something in the air at some point in feb
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Cant post pics but what a difference between the 18z and the 0z run one extreme to the other a real shocker and just shows dont pin your hopes on some outrageous charts we have been viewing over the past few days
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18 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:
A downgrade on the 12z for GFS around the mid term 192hrs, too much energy going in the northern arm unfortunately
It looks like a repeat of what has happened all season with the azores ridgeing up getting flattened then a repeat there is nothing to suggest anything different this time its been like this all season there is just to much energy to our norh
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Looks like a pattern being converged on definitely now - I'm afraid its all aboard the circular high out west that cant get far enough North train!
Yes it has been the pattern all season this type of setup just one of these years i guess but the usual suspects have done well from these myself included nothing long lasting on these setups of course it just topples over after a 2-3 days but better than nothing the days of greenland and scandi HP Are all but over nowadays but some people will not accept reality unfortunately
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16 minutes ago, Jason M said:
In a funny sort of way, I would rather not be seeing run after run of top notch easterlies because no chart is ever going to verify at days 12-16. I'm happy to keep seeing near misses at the moment. I mentioned that I thought 15-20% chance last night, but seeing todays developments I'll nudge that up a little to 25%.
The 384 chart shows where I think were headed with the mid atlantic 'bowling ball' high.
Well i wont complain if we get more of these mid atlantic HP just like we have got all through winter so far they have delivered plenty of snow and ice days for many i have had snow lying since the end of november in this area the uk doesnt stop just at london you no
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well the 18z bore feast is just a tad better than the last with the HP cell just a few miles further north which is better surely if we can get a few more runs of this we could be looking at something completly different than +8 uppers but its a start atleast
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2 hours ago, SLEETY said:
It’s just the lack of easterlies in the winter months that is so noticeable now,Even Arctic Northerlies are rare too,although at least we had one decent Northerly in Dec which gave the Midlands a decent snowfall.
Untill we see an increase in these two types of airstream then winters are going to continue to suck at low levels in the UK for the foreseeable future.
its just getting to hard now a days for easterlies you just have to look at random archive charts from decades ago and the reason stands out like a sore thumb and is shocking viewing the atlantic oceon is far more active now than decades ago my view is the PV is is just to strong now a days and just flattens any HP that trys to form in scandi or greenland with thing set to get worse in the future snow and ice will just be in old photos and video tapes just a part of history
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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
The trough extension over the n Atlantic looks different on the ec 12z and won’t allow same ridge day 5/6
yes no undercut at 120h on this run so goodbye to our phantom easterly like earlier you just never no what the ECM does run to run over the past fortnight it has been pants this run looks finally going the same way as the rest as flat as a pancake that is
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6 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
same with me, winters now stink, prefer summer, roll on summer, Frosty's great posts in model thread liven it up, even if not sunny
Its time we gathered up al the tug boats in the uk and attach them to the northern coast of scotland and trail the uk some 500 miles north for winter then trail them back 1000 miles se for the summer thats the only way we will see some proper weather for summer and winter
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3 minutes ago, snowray said:
ECM playing catch up and turning into a junk model very rapidly!
It was the same a fortnight ago it was forecasting a easterly run after run untill it suddenly droped it on the other hand the GFS not at any stage forecasted this ghost easterly the same thing is happening again either the ECM is going downhill rapidly or the GFS has had some huge upgrades this season but the GFS is now king i feel
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2 minutes ago, Hammer50 said:
It ovule switch back to cold just as easy as it shifted to warm.
certainly its more intertaning than watching the weather forecast for saudi arabia or any other desert country how boring would that be
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14 minutes ago, swfc said:
Yes it looks like a short sharp blast from the nw then our traditional set up moves in. Suspect fi will give something to cling to but it is becoming tiresome
Hopefully know build of pressure to the south ete
yes its trying once again in deep fl for another go of the azores to rige up for the 100th atempt it may just happen this time for a change but short term the NAO looks to be going positive by a fair amount
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as usual when we get to the 120h mark it al starts to fold once again we seen this last week now its happening once again the NAO looks to be rocketing once agin for the second half of january i feel the only real hope for something longer lasting is a SSW event
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2 minutes ago, snowray said:
Close to a battleground scenario at T144, Atlantic being held at bay, nail biting stuff!
we could well get a huge undercut with these charts and the holly grail a greenie
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3 minutes ago, booferking said:
Is it just me but have the models not moved more towards gfs highs all very flabby not rebust colder uppers looks further away than ever?
Gem especially so later on.
it looks like the GFS was not far of the mark al along after the name calling it has got for the past 3 days its turning more into a non event sadly
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1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:
The deafening silence says it all! I know it’s one run, but this is a step away from the Euros.
the GFS should either get a crown or a retirement date after this episode is finally played out its simply not moving one bit
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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:
UKMO 144 has cold air in place-
And i'm sure it will show the Atlantic undercutting thereafer-
GFS is dreadful, again.
yes the GFS is still not great but its slowly catching up with each passing run after 9 years of model watching one thing i have learned of the GFS it consitly sends to much energy north i have seen at least a dozen times over the years with these colder setups being forecasts
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the GFS is gradualy getting there but at the rate it's going it will be a week late the UKMO and GEM look identical at 144h this mornings ECM will finally seal it either way
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3 minutes ago, mulzy said:
ECM day 6 is decent - just worried about the high sinking as per the 0z run...
its going no where looks good
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Model output discussion - mid January
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Well the west is best if you live in western scotland northern ireland or cumbria as easterlys deliver nothing in those areas but i do no the cold gets modifayed the further south it goes which sadly has been the case all season so far for the southern half of the uk