WESTERN SNOWS
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Posts posted by WESTERN SNOWS
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It all looks very similar to last night to me going by the 00Z's.
Less marginal for areas somerset eastwards, higher potential totals in Devon, still 5cms on average, more in places (GFS still going for 10-15cm on average)
Still some uncertainty about whether it will reach Bristol or not, as Bristol is right on the line. Cardiff Yes, Bath Yes, Bristol maybe if it does totals could be 1-5cms.
Key areas still South Wales, South Devon, Somerset.
im not quite sure how bristol can miss it if ya saying cardiff will get it and bath will get it and bristol a maybe? bath is south east of bristol and cardiff is north west of bristol were in the middle its impossible for bristol to miss it and anyways the national forecast had bristol right in the zone all white shaded area all night and first part of wednesday morning
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Lucky you!! you certainly can't complain if you don't see any snow then tomorrow :lol: - Us Dorsetiers have seen no more than 1 inch this winter!
i will complain coz we have been spoiled so much:yahoo:
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PPn not getting as far north as Bristol really, Bath is more it's northern limit in England.......(quick duck for cover)
yes but bath is south east of us so if there gonna get then we should too coz the whole thing is moving west and anyways im sure it will go up into glous before it peels away but 1 thing is for sure im gonna be lookin at that radar with extreme hope in my heart lol
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I see a 9 over Bristol. Less than half an inch then?
Think I'll move back to Fishponds. I hear they are getting LOADS!
yes come here for the greatest show on earth the fishponds BLIZZARDS of the 12th january 2010:whistling:
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:):clap:
We need a "snigger" smiley. I suppose the model output thread is dead as it's not a London/SE event!
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Have you been drinking?
:)its my own personal forecast and im going with it lmao:whistling:
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very wise words
the way i look at it is what ever happens tomorrow we have had a great couple of weeks more than we could ever have wished for at the start of the winter and with more to come by the looks of it beofre this winter is out im very contented with what ever i get im really happy we are finally seeing a proper winter makes up for all the crappy ones in recent years:rolleyes:
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I think Ian's blog helps to give a bit a realism, but it's important to remember that the METO have twice now massively over estimated the amount of snow in the SW, they won't want to make a third time, equally they will forecast what they think likely (in this case my take is that Ian is forecasting what is 80% likely and is largely based on the 12Z NAE).
Amount of 30-40 cms have been quoted on here, but only in respect to what some models are showing for very small limited areas of the SW.
However even after saying the above, if you take a weigted blend of the precip forecasts from the 12Z (giving UAE 8/10, ECM 6/10, GFS OPS 5/10 etc) then you still get an average of 5cms away from the far south coast, distributed as Ian has put on his picture.
If you get 2cms be content.
If you get 5cms be very happy.
More than 5cms be amazed.
Less than 2cms look forward to the next cold spell in a week to 10 days time. !
too be honest theres so many different forecasts about tomorrow flying around the best bet in my book is to wait till the LP arrives and see exactly where it is and how far west or east it is before we make final judgements on how much were gonna get depending on the area your in.
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Wow, you guys have been at it this evening eh...
Much more relaxing up at the pub, with a few beers, fire roaring and all that jazz.
Anyhow...
Still on for 20-30cms here apparently! But, as the saying goes... west is best...
very true and east is least:drinks:
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Thing is it'll take most of tomorrow before we know what's happening!
Two Tuesdays in a row, and last Tuesday's lunchtime forecast ended up wrong so it's really going to be nowcasting. I can't believe how some people just post saying they give up etc when this has been the coldest winter spell for years!
just seen another update and the forecaster said this will be the armeggedon of snowfalls for bristol area 15-20cms typically and 30cms around the fishponds area excellent news cant wait:drinks:lol
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12Z's just starting to trickle out, it will be interesting to see the NAE keeps to it's 06Z above. So far the 12Z looks to be less progressive and slows things down even more, can't see Bristol getting any precip before say 19.00 Tuesday on this run.
thats even better coz it will be that little bit colder by then so im all for that. and also the slower it goes the more snow we get in 1 area
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Yeah mate good luck your well in the zone. Should get a good fall there
cheers mate hopefully fingers crossed
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Could be a good event. BBC not making much fuss about it getting further east so all to play for
i got a mate who lives in essex and he just rang me to say how jealous he is after seeing the forecast lunchtime and i must admit bristol looks a good bet for a dumping but how far east it will get is anyones guess all im hoping for is that i dont have to go a work wednesday morning due to being snowed in lol:drinks:
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yes not a ramp!!
but quite possible...Its got the potentail there
yes it has theres a fair bit there and when i saw the white shaded area for tomorrow evening on map my eyes lit up lol
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Well at least its due to hit us in the evening and morning.
This way the temps will be lower than during the day.
Better than it coming in after a sunny day and hitting us at 1pm.
yes perfect time and by the looks of it theres a fair bit too maybe 20cm or so even in bristol maybe?
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Lian did you not see the forecast..
MASSIVE UPGRADE....heavy snow for us,nearly evryday
Tuesday onwards..
Rich could be alot..
why has the metoffice got london and south east in the warning zone for tues into wed? its gonna be no where near them bias again i guess just like the non event they had today with the army on stand by LMFAO
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Oh! I missed that one; was that at about 10 to 6?
If Ian says "Snow" then that's good enough for me!
its my own personal forecast but i like it so im going with it lol:whistling:
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Your telling me NO one saw the forecast after Ian Fergusson tonight?
With Dan Corbett with the snow symbol's
yes i saw it bristol in for a white out thats all i need to know:drinks:
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Your telling me NO one saw the forecast after Ian Fergusson tonight?
With Dan Corbett with the snow symbol's
yes i saw it bristol in for a white out thats all i need to know:drinks:
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That's 3 News24 weather forecasts in a row where Dan has refused to go beyond Monday. Obviously there are still big doubts about Tuesday's 'event'!
yes i saw that there aint been a forecast out there that has sed with any confidence whats gonna happen tues into wed its a wait and see situation i reckon
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Depending on the flow the upper temps aren't always too important for snow. Apparently.
But I'd guess thats why its a 60% warning and not an 80-90% warning :lol:
yes but it says high risk and normally they always go for the moderate risk warning so they must be really confident of this and if it comes off its gonna be the amrageddon of snow dumps making what we got last wednesday look like a dusting:drinks:
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afternoon, i have noticed on sat24.com that we r having cloud moving up from the s/e of the channel most of today,but after this passes it looks at going eastly again, temps here have droped rapidly after 1200 with snow furrys again.
fromey
just seen the weather warning from the metoffice for late tuesday into wednesday its utter glourious bristol will get between 8 inches and a foot i reckon this is so so great and also the back track from the met about the severe weather warnings for s/e theres nothin there always over ramping the south east lmfao bring it on ATLANTIC we knew we could rely on you seeing your our old friend and allie we love you storm systems form the MIGHTY ATLANTIC YIPPEEEEEEEE
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yes well im off now night all.
me 2 night all:closedeyes:
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Although light and patchy so may only just get away with a dusting but at least its a start.
yes it is very light but i guess it all helps and especially now we have a covering to help it i think maybe tuesday into wednesday might be a bit mre interesting for us here.
:clap:
South West England Cold Spell Discussion:
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
you can forget all the original times for this arriving coz its slowed up the ETA in bristol is now 10-11pm so still got another 12 hours or so yes but it looks fantastic well worth waiting for.