Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

lukemc

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    271

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by lukemc

    January becoming less snowy

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Yes I agree that the solar minimum could bring some colder Januaries - but my question is if snow is becoming rarer as a result of climate change then why did we get years like 2010 and 2013 in the first place - and even though this January has not been notable in the UK parts of coastal Spain have had their heaviest snowfall for nearly 100 years so in some respects that is a once in a lifetime event and it just proves that even with a warming climate extreme cold events are possible.  It is however ironic that parts of coastal Spain have had more snow this winter than us in the NW of England - I wonder how much does that happen? Snow in areas that are normally much milder than the UK in the winter lol.

     

    Luke 

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
    1 hour ago, chicken soup said:

    I wish people would stop saying that infuriating phrase GET THE COLD IN FIRST THEN THE SNOW WILL COME...the snow never does come, and its looking the same this time...cold and dry week coming up.

    So going by this evening's output which category would most of you put this cold spell in I wonder,if the ecm upgrades further we could be calling it a severe cold outbreak!but as it stands where would you put it I wonder.....chilly/cold/rather cold/very cold/or bitter.?:cold:

     

    Didn't people say this in 2010 - I remember terms like dry as a bone and features popped up?

    Luke

     

    • Like 1

    Will we see a sub 3c CET again ?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by lukemc

    I think Ian Brown asked the same question a few years back and then 2009-10, December 2010 and 2013 all came along so if those cold months can prove that we can get a cold CET month again then surely those months prove that we certainly can do it again.  Look, since 2008 we not only did it again once, we did it again at least 3 times so I am sure we will - people go on about climate change and all that but even taking into account AGW etc. our lifetimes are only a tiny amount of time in the climatological history of the planet.  If Ian Brown was right when he said that - must have been about 2007 or so and if it were impossible how an earth did we get 3 yes THREE very cold months since then LOL? I am sure within the lifetimes of most of us on here, we will get not only another cold CET month of sub 3 CET, we will get a few and probably a winter that will be colder than 2009/10 - maybe even of 1963 type severity - we are likely to go though a few low solar minima within our lifetimes.  What those recent winters have shown is that it is still possible to get cold winters even with a warming climate - also look at North America over the last few years too not just Europe.

     

    Luke

    Aircraft contrail altitude

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    As I know, aircraft contrails normally form above about 25000 feet or snow, but watching the aircraft over my house last Friday (12th February) I was surprised to see persistent contrails forming at an altitude as low as 12000 feet - a Flybe Dash 8 flying from Manchester to the IOM was contrailling persistently at 15000 feet (FL150).  I have read that for contrails to form the air temperature has to be around -25C or so but 10000feet or so corresponds to the 850HpA level and even though we had cold upper air around last Friday it would not the temps at 10000 feet-15000 feet be no less than about -8C or so? So can anyone explain why I saw contrails at pretty low altitude last Friday? I know humidity is also involved so maybe something to do with the humidity of the air - I might expect a contrail forming at 10K feet when we are under an airmass with -25C 850s or below but why so low trail level on Friday 11th?

     

    Luke 

    Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by lukemc

    13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Yep, 2004 was just a bog standard toppler too. However, it pees all over anything we've seen from that direction over the past few years and anything that's currently showing within the NWP. Even March 2006 saw a decent plunge from that direction. Baffling.

    Crewe Cold,

    Well wouldn't you count Boxing Day 2014 in that category too? which I would class as a toppler scenario and that brought snow on the ground here in Liverpool upper temps were not amazing btw so it can happen - we also had transitional lying snow in Liverpool from a NW'ly last year in January I can recall so as least as far as my area is concerned that is not correct they can still deliver if the parameters are right.  It can also depend on the intensity and amount of precipitation you get to bring evaporative cooling increasing the risk of snow at low levels.

    EDIT - also remember we got snow from a transitional NW'ly again in December 2011.

    It might have been different in Crewe but that was for my location in Liverpool not far from the Irish Sea coast even though snow is infrequent at our location it goes to show it is not impossible of course - and the examples above are of toppler type events not even including the likes of 2010.

     

     

    Luke

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Interesting outlook I am going to the Peak District on Sunday for 2 night staying in Glossop just asking if I have a chance of seeing snow on current projections? And do I have a chance of seeing something at home in Liverpool beforehand (sorry for the slightly off topic post - decided to post in here as it is quiet for the time of day)

     

    Luke

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Even though I find reading the model thread depressing most of the time when there is a poor outlook for coldies, I do however find reading what Ian Brown has to say (masquerading as Shropshire) over on TWO funny and entertaining at times - as we all know he is legendry for the modern wnter theory - you can tell he his Ian Brown by how often he uses the world "zonal" in his posts!  Also NEB who occasionally posts on here can be funny in some ways as his posts always to be about cold zonality  (or complaining about the lack of it) most of his posts mention January 1984 an interesting agenda if you ask me.

     

    Luke  

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by lukemc

    It will be interesting to look at the reasons why this winter has been so mild and will be interesting to know you opinions on here would you say it is a side effect of the Super El Nino or a very cold stratosphere giving rise to a very strong polar vortex, the westerly QBO or a combination of all these factors coming together to result in this.  And is it the case that strong el ninos normally result in mild winters for NW Europe?  But in some ways we are not alone - despite the big snowstorm, most of the NE US have had a pretty mild winter with a very mild December.

    I also wonder why GP has not been posting for a while do you think he has other commitments it would be interesting to here his thoughts 

     

     

    Luke

    Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Latest run just shows how poor models are at product ing the weather beyond even day 6, the differences can be quite staggering.

    Unless the METO change there long range soon I'd be massively surprised if anything other than averagely cold shows up, with possibly a toppler or 2 in the mix. Sustained cold opportunities have gone for this year unfortunately , the SSW isn't helping.

    Now, let's have a nice warm and dry spring. 

    I think that the stratospheric warming could still be the wild card in all of this - I would not be surprised to see better charts from a cold perspective in the next few days as we still do not know what the effect of this stratospheric warming will be remember it can take some time for the implications to come to fruition.  Yes it is the 4th February today and we are still looking at mediocre outputs but with uncertainties regarding the stratosphere and MJO I think it is too early to write off winter yet - remember we can still have conditions conductive to snow in March and even April.

     

    Luke

    • Like 4

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    What odds do we have of this winter being the mildest winter on record at the moment?

    I also need to make a point that since I have been on this forum in the winter sometimes I feel indoctrinated by the coldie club in the winter it is like I am brainwashed to like cold and snow in the winter and nothing else - I am sure that other people on this forum have a similar experience.  If I take a break from the forums, I am not as bothered to whether it is cold or snows.  Yes reading the MOD thread can be exciting at times, but it can also be depressing like it is at present - does anyone actually find the process of reading the model thread depressing? - e.g. look at the moment very little posts I could say boring too.  But on a better note I would like to have a reasonable shot at snow soon - what are the chances of us getting improvents in the charts in the near future as it is depressing going into the MOD thread day after day and reading things like "poor output for coldies again".   I notice a pattern in the model thread sometimes, there are some posters that only seem to post when poor output for coldies appears but there are some excellent posters in the thread too, my favorites are the like of Nick Sussex, Bluearmy, Tamara etc. - who at least when the output does not go in the cold lovers favour, they do a great job of explaining why.

    Luke

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

    There aren't any travelodges in the Peak District, closest is Glossop, my old home town. It does do pretty well for snow but a better bet is Buxton at a higher elevation.

    Your right, Glossop is where were are booked a bit surprised with no travelogues in the national park area maybe de to national park planning restrictions I wonder? 

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    12 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

    This may have always been the case and I accept that it is impossible and always has been so that the UK cannot have a 1947 / 1963 more or less every year, but most past winters have brought more in the way of cold outbreaks than this winter so far has and winter 2013-14 did, and many winters between 1988 and 2008 did.  It is just that today and in most of the last 28 years zonal flows have been much milder due to unfavourable orientation; if a zonal flow orientates NW-SE the weather can be very dfferent without significant northern blocking, as www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840115.gif zonal, but guess what, widespread snow from the south Pennines northwards, www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840123.gif  www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840124.gif No significant northern blocking but guess what, widespread snowfall even down to the Midlands even at lower levels.  Looking at the charts closely may not suggest it, but this was a famous event when a zonal flow brought much colder weather and widespread snowfall.  The best example of a zonal flow of polar maritime origin I can find in more recent years was www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090120.gif when a zonal flow brought snowfall to the south Pennines.  This was also a good example www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950302.gif .  It is just so depressing when all a zonal flow often delivers is wind and rain and mild temperatures.  It is a bit like late Feb 2005 when some wonderful easterly synoptics developed but gave a poor delivery for most of us. 

    The winters of 2008-09 and 2009-10, December 2010 and the middle to latter part of 2012-13 were certainly a significant improvement on most of the 1988 to 2008 period, but since 2012-13 we appear to have slipped back into even the poorer winters of the 1988 to 2008 period, and looking at this winter (2015-16) so far and the dreadful one in 2013-14, and also 2014-15 wasn't special neither, the question is again being asked "is northern high latitude blocking extinct, is cold polar maritime zonality extinct? 

    NEB,

    That sounds a bit like the ludicrous Modern Wintr theory branded about by the likes of Ian Brown - how an earth can you say northern blocking is extinct - we have in the last decade the coldest December for over 100 years meaning the coldest in any of our lifetimes.  In 2009-10 we had the coldest winter since 1978/79 and we recently had an amazingly cold March with very deep snowfalls.  And even though the last two winters were mild and average respectively before this one in North America they had a pair of severe winters.  Not having a go at you but just saying that you can't suddenly go back to that position regarding the future of our winters based on 2 mild winters and one near average one since 2013.  Also you have got to consider that this winter has had some unusual factors that have come together to make a mild winter - e.g. the easterly QBO a record strong El Nino and a very cold stratosphere throughout most of the season - if we did not have them we would have had a better chance of northern blocking.  Trust me NEB, we are high likely to see a few more very cold winters in our lifetimes, even with global warming.

    On another topic, do you think we could see something of note in the middle on the month - I am going to stay in a Travelodge in the Peak District around the time of Valentines Day - what do you think the chance of seeing something wintry then would be? As the Peak District is higher up than Liverpool? I would like it to snow when I go!

     

    Luke

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by lukemc

    42 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Hi Luke

    Currently a minor SSW is likely but we're not sure of a major one and even then its a bit of a lottery. I think at this point looking at the movement of the MJO then if you were going to pick a more favourable timeframe it would be the last two weeks of February.

    The outputs look pretty solid in terms of the next 10 days, then even if the upstream pattern improved with a bit more amplitude that would take more time to feed downstream.

    At this point I think we're going to be left with two weeks to save this crxp winter. Historically end of Feb and early March can be quite interesting but its going to have to go something to make up for the rest of the winter.

    Thanks for that Nick, just letting you know that Gavin Partridge in one of his latest video mentions that this El Nino is currently weakening do you think that could help us in February/March as well as the potential SSW - Nick I was listening to a documentary on El Nino on the BBC a few weeks ago and they said the El Nino's effect on UK and Europe is less than in some other parts of the world, but do you still see El Nino as a guilty party in this "poor" winter?

    Luke
     

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    More underwhelming output. The ECM has the pattern too far west with low pressure stuck over the UK and any Atlantic ridging is soon flattened at T240hrs.

    The upstream pattern isn't too bad at day ten but we'll be still be saying this as we're munching our way through the Easter eggs.

    Unless we see either proper Greenland block or Scandi high with some deep cold to tap into then we're going to have to make do with the scraps off the buffet table and be chasing around a few hours of wet snow.

    Its painful viewing! At this point with the Azores high displaced then February looks like being more average to cooler at times but without a proper block in a favourable location then that's really all I can see as being a positive.

    Unless the MJO can do something favourable and any SSW can help deliver a change then we may aswell get our Winter 2015/16 Sucked T-Shirts on order.

    Sorry to sound so pessimistic. I look forward to sounding less miserable at some point in the future!

     

    Hi Nick,

     

    What do you think the chance of the SSW doing us any favours I know it does not guarantee cold for us but it can shorten the odds on blocking which then leads to cold weather.  What is frustrating me like you I presume is what seems to be poor model output after poor model output (from a cold lovers point of view) I was expecting to see some improvements over this weekend but why are we getting dross all the time? I like excitement in the models rather than boredom, even if it all goes pear shaped for snow and cold.  I wonder were we are the the SSW this evening I know that the 18z and 00z runs did not have the split, does anyone know the score with the 12z strat models?

     

    Luke  

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    What about the stratospheric warming though? - from many of the posts on here this evening you get the impression that the following February is likely to go the way of February 1998 but AFAIK winter 1997/1998 did not have a stratospheric warming event but as predicted if we do get one in the next few days that could make a colder period more likely (but not guaranteed of course) - so I think the SSW could lead to something.  February has not even begun yet and I have a feeling the SSW could help things.

     

    Luke 

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    BFTP by impactful weather do you mean snow potential? I suppose it could mean wind but that low does not look that deep to me so maybe you were talking about snow potential.  Things do seem to be getting colder what do you think do you think we are in with a good chance of a good snow event in the next 2 weeks hopefully the SSW will help.

     

    Luke 

    What synoptics would we need for a blizzard like the one in America?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just as a matter of interest what US cities would have similar levels of snowfall to most UK cities? - e.g. in terms of annual averages - I would probably think that the Pacific Northwest e.g. Seattle would be similar to London, Manchester, Liverpool etc.  Also I know that Charlotte that got snow as part of this storm does not get snow that often - they are at least as bad if not worse than the UK in dealing with it I think that they only get significant accumulations once or twice a decade or so and then we get Atlanta were snow is rare enough for even small amounts to give big problems.

     

    Luke 

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by lukemc

    Nick before we get to any more amplified pattern do you think that we could get some cold zonality that could deliver for some northern parts of England (as well as Scotland/Ireland of course)? Zonality does not always have to be mild actually when we get a very strong polar vortex it can happen like in December 2012 we had some "turbocharged" zonality that provided some good snowfalls for the setup in North West England.  If we can't have a blocked pattern at least we could have some cold zonality - it even delivered in March in 1995.  But Nick, if I got just one decent event with snow on the ground on my patch I would be happy - last weekend Manchester got snow on the ground - Liverpool mainly did not - but at least I got to see snow on the ground as I was at Manchester Airport last Saturday.

    Maybe a bit OT but is Manchester on average slightly snowier than Liverpool even though they are 30 miles apart? Been a few times I remember raining in Liverpool and snowing in Manchester - talking the city not higher areas like Oldham and Rochdale

     

    Luke

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Nick,

    Just a quick question for you any ideas to why the PV is so strong at the moment as usually towards the latter part of the winter it weakens and so does the Jetstream meaning a greater chance of blocking - isn't it unusual to get such raging zonality as we enter zonality.  Do you think it is related to the El Nino or is it, as you have suggested related to the minor stratospheric warmings? Do you think a scenario more akin to 1998 or 1983 would be more likely for February?

     

    Luke

     

    • Like 1
×
×
  • Create New...