[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Karlos, click on the link and you will see the problem at the moment. as you will see there is a cold blob to the South of the UK but not part of the "Beast". I've circled the problem area.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=1.84,52.05,850/loc=21.964,53.720

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Seriously.... are you doubting cross model agreement? Are you the oracle or something? The beast is coming! 

Like I said Karlos, the toe of the "Beast" is here, but to get the body of the "Beast" then the winds at 500 hPa have to change direction. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Ok thanks we get the picture, you’re  not onboard!!

meanwhile!!

 

Opportunities becon!!

Not on board yet Karlos, but I do have a boarding pass. I'm not looking at the North Sea "lake" affect or even the Channel "lake" effect which might well introduce snow into parts of the South West, but the prospect of more meaningful snow for the Southern Counties of the UK. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

8 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

EURO4 out to Sunday 12z can see the beast incoming.

The winds at 850 hPa (5,000 ft) have to turn over the weekend. They are very slack at the moment and the 500 hPa (18,000 ft) winds are West to East. Fingers crossed they will turn and the "Beast" gets to us, proper job.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Sure enough the latest update from our Met Office has for 1st March, the Azores low now at 980 mb (filling) and sited just off Portugal. The cold air to the east should block the eastward migration somewhat and push it northeastwards towards the UK. A dry and cold Europe will keep moisture levels down I'm afraid and not help it deepen.

The Met Office 00.00z report on this low will be interesting. Of course we can track this low pressure on radar and see how accurate their tracking forecast is.

Another forecast low in the Atlantic is already at 980 mb for the same period and will follow the same route and will, I think, fill also. A lot of dry air around.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Oh and the "beast from the east" is being held up at the moment. Yes we are going to feel the cold from the toe of the beast, but at 500 hPa (18,000ft) the winds are west to east, thus holding the very cold air. Don't get me wrong, but to really feel "the beast", this needs to change over the weekend. Just sayin'. Don't forget either, that Scotland has already had a minus 15 recorded at sea level this winter and nobody really got excited about that.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

There is an Azores low anticipated on the 28th to have a pressure of 979 mb as so described by our MetOffice. This low is shown to be filling (980+) as it tries to push eastwards and should fill again with each 6 hour projection. Each time it fills it loses its identity and energy. Will it get across Iberia or will it be pushed north towards the UK? If it continues to lose its identity it will pick up less moisture off a cold sea. By the time it gets to the UK it might be a small affair with a limited amount of precipitation. Sunday evening will tell us all we need to know. Hang in there until then. If it deepens then we could see substantial snow in the Southern Counties of the UK.

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

I note that on the Met Office synoptic charts for Monday, they have the Azores low pressure filling rapidly. If that continues if it gets to the UK it really will be a damp squib when it does.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

2 hours ago, Polar Bear said:

One of my besties lives in Mary Tavy. If it does all get hideous message me, and I'll let her know too. Sometimes though with the elderly you've got to just go ahead and do it. ( I have one next door and my parents are too) She will need a new gas bottle soon so you are only getting it for her earlier than she needs. ?

Lovely food at the Mary Tavy Inn.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

One only really needs to look at the models to see that it looks highly unlikely to rain anywhere next week! 

OldGrumpyBloke 

hop aboard sir 

 

Hi Karlos, yes grumpy oldbloke. LOL. I do wonder at times, guess it is my age. It is interesting to see the reaction to those models we all hear about. It is a bit like viewing religion, you believe your sect. In view of the fact that there has already been delays to the "Beast from the East" and divergence on the 7 day forecast, why should the METEO be any less accurate than all the others? 

Me? I'll be looking at the 5 day synoptic on Sunday night before I get excited. Living on Dartmoor, if it does snow, I should see more than most, which is what I wish for!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

I don't want to be seen as a party pooper, but, the latest METEO forecast for next week has snow for the South West starting on Tuesday, more general snow on Wednesday and Thursday then rain from then on. If this is going to happen, then with the really cold air arriving on Sunday night and going on Friday, hardly worth the term the "Beast from the East", more like a short cold snap. I hope that METEO are wrong for the sake of all those that have hyped this weather "event" as something extra special.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Blizzards devastated the South West 40 years ago 

It is the 40th anniversary of the start of what was one of the worst blizzards to have affected the United Kingdom in the last 100 years. It affected South West England and south Wales for five days from 15th to 19th February 1978 before milder weather edged in bringing a general thaw.

The cold air initially moved into the UK from the east around the 7th, and was further enhanced by a cold pool of air moving in from central Europe between the 10th and 14^th .

The weather set up, with a huge contrast in air-masses either side of a weather front, led to considerable snowfall for the South West on the 15^th and 16^th and this was followed on the 18th and 19th by an unusually severe blizzard which extended to south Wales.

Snow accumulated to depths of about 60cm in places on Dartmoor and Exmoor and to 85cm at Nettlecombe (Bird’s Hill) in Somerset, but drifts of at least 6m were reported over a wide area which included Dorset and Wiltshire.

The exceptional weather cut communications and caused severe hardship, and although milder weather soon reached the south-west, several towns and villages were isolated by snowdrifts for some days and it was reported that there was still snow on the ground in early July.

Snow depths at 9am on 20th February:

Devon, Somerset, and Devon

85cm Nettlecombe, Birds Hill

60cm Princetown Prison

39cm Bovey Tracey Yarner Wood

38cm Crewkerne

40cm Winfrith (near Dorchester)

30cm Poole

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Just looking at the Met Office synop' charts for the next 5 days, on the 5th day, I do like the look of the Scandinavian low heading for G.B. Very low pressure it is and if it gets here, well, I think we are talking snow and lots of it. Fingers corssed if you like snow.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

I'd go for Tuesday evening and most of Wednesday for the first of our snowfalls in the South West.

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards]

Snow shower is at Witheridge, looks like it will skirt the Moor. Pity. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards]

Snow shower now showing over Tiverton. Picking it up on Weather Underground radar. A small shower also showing at Wiveliscombe. Seems to be getting bigger too.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards]

My radar is showing a snow shower traveling Southwestwards down the M5 currently just south of Wellington. Can anyone confirm this or is it just high level evaporation?

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards]

Quite right there ajp'. The thing is with the models, they are just that. If the modeling was as good as everyone hopes to think, then the models would all say pretty much the same thing. They don't. So why do folk give much credence to those models. Beyond me. In fact anything beyond 10 days is pure conjecture. Close study of the general synoptic charts will give you 5 days positive. And why everyone gets so excited about the 850 and 500 hPa is another head scratcher. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards]

Wind now dropping out across many parts of the South West. Dew points across much of Somerset and Devon holding at 2 degrees. Temperatures just outside Honiton are also showing 4 degrees. Looks like frosts before Midnight for many. I wonder if we will see a minus 3 tonight? And today is the first day/night of the cold spell. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards]

Princetown now showing plus 5 with a private station now at plus 4 which is a 9 degree drop since lunchtime. Dew point also at plus 2 so I would suggest a frost before midnight across the sheltered parts of the Moor.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards]

Temperatures now at plus 2 on the East Anglian coast. Dartmoor has lost 6 degrees over the last 4 hours and my feet are beginning to feel cold.

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards]

It must be pretty depressing having snow in East Anglia when you think about it. No hills for sledging.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards]

With a high pressure building from 1020 to 1040 across much of the UK, to include the S.W., I'm quite confident that temperatures will slowly fall to be at or below freezing for the majority of the S.W. Coupled with a developing strong easterly down the English Channel, I'm sure we will see "snow grains" or slightly heavier snow along those southern coastal areas. Might even get to my patch, Dartmoor. With the on shore affect across the east coast also creating snow showers or longer periods of snow and on a brisk easterly wind, I'm sure these will get to the South West to include the east side of Dartmoor.

Can't be doing with all those models that get folk excited at a level of 5,000 ft, much happier working with synoptics at mean sea level.

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

Interestingly, the NetWeather snow forecast chart has very little snow for the UK right up to the 27th and then from the 28th very mild air from the South West. This is very different from last night where they had the UK under a blanket of snow for days. Yes, it is going to be cold for about 10 days but that is about it according to their morning chart.

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

For those that are interested, as I type this, the coldest area within the stratosphere anywhere around the globe is now, directly above the United Kingdom. At a pressure setting of 10 hPa, there is a minus 20 degrees anomaly. Above the UK at 10 hPa (101,000 ft) it is showing MINUS 69, the coldest area above the planet within the stratosphere.