OldBloke

I note that the most recent Met Office pressure chart for the 22nd, has us under a high pressure system with an easterly aspect with a 1025 sea level pressure forecast.

It means that the Polar Vortex will be displaced and warmer conditions will replace it. All this is taking place at 101,000 ft above us. Normally the circular winds over the pole during winter run west to east. A sudden warming event causes them to run east to west as the air above the pole warms. The sun's activity causes the warming. It isn't sure yet, just what effect this will have upon our Jetstream and the weather caught up in it through the Troposphere. Some might post that they can judge what our weather will now do over two weeks...some into March and 4 weeks away. Historical evidence will give an indication but it is not cast in stone but records have been kept and might be worth looking up. The Jetstream forecast and the study of the 10 hPa flows over the next week will be interesting. Wednesday would be a good bet to look in as things up there at 101,000 ft will have settled down a bit. 10 hPa is a pressure level at 101,000 ft give or take a few.

Heavy snow shower just gone through Dartmoor on the east side and at 780 ft. Excellent!

Aww come on festvalking, I'm sure it will snow tomorrow. I've had a fair bit on my side of the Moor recently. Was walking in it yesterday! Looks good for Friday and Sunday and even better for the week of the 20th.

Current radar plots show wintry precipitation in the Scilly Isles and the front in Ireland has not moved further eastwards in the last 4 hours.

The cold front which is "expected" to deliver the snow in the South West has just arrived on the west side of Ireland as rain. Ahead of it are temperatures of 5, 6, 7 and 8 degrees. It is also a very narrow band of precipitation. Oh dear.

The cold front off the Atlantic which arrives on Monday in Ireland becomes an occluded one. The cold air blocks the progress eastwards, so it slows down and for the most part sits over Devon and Cornwall and releases its energy. Should it move further east it will be a fragmented affair. Good news is, it will have snow on it but less the further east it goes. I doubt it will make London in any significant form. But this depends on tomorrow lunchtime synoptic. Fingers crossed.

Believe me Polar Bear, we will. Don't be surprised if you hear about the Scilly Isles getting a dusting if the current synoptic holds good. As I say, the NOAA synoptic will be worth a good look tomorrow lunchtime. Fingers crossed that the Azores high is pushed further South which looks a very good bet that it is.

Just looking at the North Atlantic Synoptic chart, as published by NOAA, they have the Azores high moving South over the next 12 hours. They also have a load of fronts heading eastwards from the USA which look as though they will truncate the Northern side of the Azores high, thus allowing the colder air to descend further south as it crosses the UK. In other words, a greater risk of snow on our patch, here in the far South West. Looking good for Tuesday and Wednesday for snow from mid morning onwards om Tuesday for Devon and Cornwall but blocked by Easterlies for Somerset and Wiltshire as the cold front dies a death over Devon. Their synoptic will be worth looking at tomorrow lunchtime.

Hi Dorsetbred, Been around here for quite some time. I have kept a close eye on the Netweather Jestream forecast for nearly two years now, and I have to say, it is proving to be pretty accurate for the 14 day pitch. And yes, it is in feet, a habit from being a pilot and i'm not a Russian one.

Netweather's own snow forecast looks interesting from 5th Feb for those in the South West. Most of the UK gets it as well. Long way off, but....

khodds, hang in there, you might get lucky on Friday afternoon and evening.

Precipitation radar now showing snow on Bodmin Moor

A mixture of rain, sleet and wet snow in and around Moretonhampstead as I type. Snow on the surrounding hills via a shower. Moretonhampstead is 700 ft above mean sea level. Town temperature 4.4.C

Radar indicating wintry precipitation on Exmoor as I write this.

For those on my Patch (Dartmoor), at mid day it was wet snow at Princetown and the gritters have been out on the B3212.

The thaw might not have got underway proper when the rains come, if the cold air is reintroduced. If we get the possible 2" of rain precip' falling onto frozen ground, the run off will be something else..for the ground will not be able to soak it up. If it rains onto the lying snow and melts that lying snow....man the lifeboats. The ground wasn't frozen in Feb' last year.

No..but the flooding afterwards could be! The ground has been frozen for nearly 2 months now..God help those who live near river courses when it all goes horribly wrong.

I know what you mean SH...yesterday the BBC were saying *odd snow flurries* all day..and that was even after one of these *odd snow flurries* had dumped another 2.5" over a period of 4 hours!!

Main rain band now showing on the latest meteox radar. Looks like it will be in earlier than forcast. Temperature still just above zero and a thaw still in place..and this is at 950ft eastern side of Dartmoor. Why am I thinking Mr Fish in all this? Should be a very interesting 12 hours indeed.

It would appear that the migration of the front has stalled and stalled in a line from Snowdonia to the Wash. The front also looks like it is losing it's identity and energy and precip' is becoming more fragmented. On it's most Northern edge there would appear to be a possible temp inversion and as such a small snow line could occur mostly over the mountainous region of Wales. Cold air from the North moving South is and will underpin the warm air to create the temp inversion and as such a risk of snow. The front has broken and to the west of Ireland, will, in my opinion develop as a new low. This is the one which will give us a chance of snow in the South West as a cold air replaces the current warm air sector.