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shiver

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Posts posted by shiver

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Might just reach Nottingham, Shivers. Very borderline to be honest. Maybe Nick F may have a better idea but I'm only going by METO radar and the PPN seems to be slowing down as it moves NE.

    Back to fine drizzle now but wind seems to be picking up a touch.

    Phil.

    tanks looking at the rain today radar looks like it could go further north than notts?

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    12z is a total downgrade surprise-surprise. was looking forward to a few good runs of early next week being snow-fest Tues, but now its very light snow, and the end of the week is rain with above freezing temps. Hopefully an isolated run...

    well, as per usual, it looks like the game that never started, is surely over for Notts today and most likely tomorrow... maybe next winter..... cray.gif

    you got a crystal ball 12z???

    Model Output Discussion:

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    This is getting ridiculous now, I've been watching the models for years and this is really taking the mickey. Also the biggest flip in the ensembles I've ever seen.

    Improvement in the other models too.

    No doubt they will all flip back to tropical SWlys again tonight. Pretty much impossible to make sense out of the models at the moment.

    same here i have never seen this before in the last 8 years once the modls flip they usualy stick to that outcome but this is different and for that reason im going with a very cold easterly outbreaksmile.gif

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Oh dear things must be bad if you're looking at the Russian model! biggrin.gif It actually looks similar to the ECM in the earlier timeframe. The UKMO tonight unfortunately go with their own model in the fax charts which is disappointing although the 120hrs fax chart isn't quite as horrific as I expected it to be!

    Those shortwaves coming out of the USA are a real pain as they just feed that Atlantic trough, if you noticed the GFS tries to disrupt the trough sending that shortwave se wards but then up pops its reinforcement shortwave which deepens and spins ne'wards.

    yep that 120 fax looks nothing like the countryfile fcast at the same time something has changed i tell yousmile.gif

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Given the GFS of recent days is anyone taking any notice of it? The problem remains the trough in the Atlantic, this just gets topped up by a stream of shortwaves coming out of the USA,the trough cant disrupt or weaken whilst this is the case.

    have you seen gem 12z nick fi is t72 smile.gif

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Oh great I'm sure the ski resorts here in the Pyrenees and Alps will be looking forward to that! The only interest I have in foehn effects are in the summer!

    I 'm hoping the rain stays away here and the models keep enough of a ridge from the block to keep it dry, anyway given the ECM has switched again in its FI output from this morning with it now keeping the notorious block to the east rather than edging the trough through perhaps it might go the whole way tomorrow and bring back an easterly! that was just a joke!

    i have seen stranger things mate it nearly does it at t96 a slight change and we would be looking at complet

    ely the opposite at what we aresmile.gif

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well I think we've learnt a harsh lesson here and its the UKMO should be known as the dream killer! this model annoys me, it never progs a cold set up when the others show milder but is happy to implode another easterly!

    Now that the dust has settled and everyone has got their frustration out of the way lets move on and try and plot a way forward. If you take out the extreme solution of the UKMO and go with the middle ground solution of the ECM where does that leave us, well not quite at the prozac stage because the ECM is still much better than the UKMO at the 144 hrs timeframe.

    The ECM at 144hrs could still develop more favourably if the energy goes south rather than north and for this reason and given that theres still model disagreement we should hold fire before calling winter is over etc.

    We have to accept that more energy will spill forward off the main trough so the quickest route to the easterly is now very unlikely, so we have to move to plan B. For the timebeing this is still an option but for this we still need the misery model to backtrack tomorrow.

    Using a horse racing analogy, the horse might be tired and scrambling over the fences but hasn't unseated its rider just yet!

    well i would wait for the ensembles because this is a warm run for holland as wellsmile.gif

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.jp2webdes.../two/ensembles/

    http://91.121.94.83/...ndres&runpara=0

    Ensembles not as good as the 06z. There is agreement on surface temps being cold so some members must be going for Faux cold rather than the true easterly with associated uppers. IMO things are going the wrong way for a full blown Beast from the East. Most likely outcome is a SE feed with Faux cold and anticyclonic.

    I think the pink ensemble on the surface tempt is the UKMO solution!

    do not agree i think its low pressure undercutting the block sending higher 850s north but the surface remains coldsmile.gif

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