[Model Output Discussion]

big upgrade on the ecm extended ens

[Cold Spell Discussion]

Don't bother going on TWO it's only one better than BBC's snow watch with lots of "is it going to snow in Carlisle" posts!

Pennines and North york moors maybee. There is lots of Precip around at the moment with temps at 3c and dew point around +2

http://www.meteociel...40&mode=4&map=0

ECM resets to zonal but the low slips SE and then South. Scandi high then expoldes and we are back with N / NE flow possibly even an easterly which is similar to what the GEFS parralel run is showing. I wouldn't mind betting this is what we will be looking at on the 18z GFS operational as many of the ensembles have gone for this.

excuse me a lot of people on here go on two

[Model Output Discussion]

Thats quite confusing, I thought the parralel run had already taken over as the new gfs operational.

It will replace the current GEFS on February 16th, 2010.

The main new thing is basically that the GEFS has a bigger resolution.

1. Increase horizontal resolution from T126 to T190 for four daily

cycles. Extend forecast out to 384 hours (16 days), equal to 70km

horizontal resolution.

2. Use 8th horizontal diffusion for all horizontal resolutions

3. Tune initial perturbations

4. Introduce ESMF V3.1.0rp2 (need additional RFC) scheme that allows

concurrent generation of all members.

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/workshops/WS2009/presentations/1-04.pdf

5. Introduce stochastic scheme to

GFS

/GEFS model.

coppied from two hope this helps

[Model Output Discussion]

It is the parallel of the GEFS ensembles

correct it takes over on the 16th of feb

[Model Output Discussion]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=12&mode=0&runpara=1 dont know if people realise this but the paralelle run is still going i got this over on two but hey what a run

[Model Output Discussion]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=132&mode=0&carte=1 gem is awesome

[Model Output Discussion]

I don't think anyone takes the UKMO at T144 seriously and so we await the ECM.

The problem we have is that the core of the HP is centred in the Atlantic and what the ECM showed this morning allows the northerly to occur because there is a sufficient gap between systems coming off the Eastern Seaboard to raise pressure enough over Greenland.

A northerly could occur, but either way, it looks like a precursor to a toppling and the mild February that now looks very likely.

cheers ian im now expecting a feb freeze up

[Model Output Discussion]

Hopefully it will be sorted out tomorrow but if the GFS at T120 verifies, then nothing very exciting is going to develop thereafter, look at the heights to the North and West.

yep im looking ian at height rises over greenland hard game trying to second guess the models isnt ithttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png

[Model Output Discussion]

You won't be missing out on anything other than rain unless you fancy a trip to a high hill in Derbyshire or somewhere further North !

you have not seen the meto run yet then ian?

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

Damn Forest fans... that badge is making me feel sick. I look forward to the 30th of Jan.

...But back on topic, looks like the really feeble show showers are dying out.

how did the sheep do today?

[Midlands Cold Spell Discussion]

Headline:

Band of sleet and snow moving south.

This Evening and Tonight:

Band of sleet and snow moving south to southwest England, Wales, the Midlands and eastern England by the end of the night, with heavy snow showers following to Northern Ireland and north and east Scotland. Frosty in the southeast.

Tuesday:

Outbreaks of sleet and snow are expected to move slowly down into much of southern England through the day, and with some further snow affecting many northern and central parts.

Updated: 1427 on Mon 4 Jan 2010

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

nice upgrade