Hurricane Buckley
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Posts posted by Hurricane Buckley
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Could you elaborate, if you truly believe everything is point towards it, please explain, or new members will be confused by the conflicting posts.
Going by chart runs, it has pushed most of the PPN into the channel with only the extreme coast seeing something, still suppose we cant rule anything out yet. This has just come from Liam Dutton: Phew, latest info suggests that Normandy, France could see 30-50cm of snow in next 48hrs. If storm was 100 miles north, that'd be S'ern Eng.
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Tomasz Schafernaker just said this ..
North France,Channel I. still in for big snowstorm tomorrow.Normandy perhaps 50cm snow.South Eng still at risk of being brushed
It seems that's all they think it is, a risk.
I sadly think we'll miss this now, everything is pointing towards it.
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Think we'll miss it now, everything seems to point towards it, shame but Jersey looking snowy.
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I know the GFS has only just started to come out, but it seems to already have lost some of its sting..
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Southward movement on the NAE on the 12z , is usually a sign the GFS is going to shift South as well, I don't know why but I have noticed that over this winter.
Im ignoring it, its been pretty rubbish, think the GFS will keep it where it is.
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omg 12z NAE is terrible ....
Ignore the NAE its been pretty rubbish, wait on what the GFS has to say.
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NAVGEM has been a great chart, it hasnt moved from the snow outcome for the SW, now it seems the rest are playing catch up.
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GFS pushes Further North!
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Dew point here has lost 0.2oC in 10 mins not much but it shows the colder air digging in, it all seems a bit faster than forecast.
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Looking at the radar its turning sleety across Devon and into Somerset, any reports of this? Just its about 6-8 hours early.
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GFS brings it back and again the NAVGEM which has stuck with the snow throughout hasnt shifted and brings between 5-15cm widely across Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Dorset, Sussex and Kent. Areas all to watch.
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This from Ian Fergusson: So, little to add currently from UKMO chief. The most rainfall equivalent generated in latest NAE for Monday is 4mm in S Devon; 2mm or less elsewhere in S England; much higher totals N France. Latest EC has v similar amounts. So on face value a non-event BUT chief cautions how "all ingredients remain to be mindful... of a severe event with blizzards (etc)..."; this more serious outcome currently given a 10-20% PROB based on all available output as of now.
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The NAVGEM keeps the snow over the SW, S and later the SE, this has just updated, i know this isnt in line with other charts but this has stuck when others have chopped and changed, maybe its on to something which others might pick up on at the 11th hour.
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Interesting to note the NAVGEM has just updated and once again keeps the South West under snow for most of the night and Monday with light to moderate falls, hopefully its a trend.
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NAE is bad for snow in the SW in my opinion.
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It's weather, why on earth get so het up about it?
I've been following this for a few days now and the most common view is that it will be around 5cm. Where you got thee once in a 50 year event is beyond me.
But it's just weather. We will wake up tomorrow whether it's rain, snow or hail - and we will all lead the same lives.
Ive not once heard the one in a 50 year event, at one point upto 20cm was looking on but now 2-5cm is fair with 10cm over dartmoor
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It could be interesting if it continues to move Northwards, it might be a late run thing haha, it'll probably move South again.
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BBC Weather at 20:00 is showing it as an out to sea event!
This wouldnt of been updated yet i doubt.
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just seen this in the mod thread, hopefully we are back in the game
Posted 16 minutes ago
POPULAR
About an hour ago, Ops Centre notified us of the following GM modifications; i.e. prior to full EC suite availability:
" T+48/60: Moved main precipitation band in the south 60 n miles further north (T+48), supported by NAE (modified) and Arpege, and 80 n miles further NW supported by GFS and Arpege.
T+72: Moved main low over continent 100 n miles further east towards Arpege solution, with GFS giving more modest support.
T+84: No modifications necessary, GFS and Arpege provide support for GM solution."
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flyer, SteveB, chionomaniac and 8 others like this
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Ian K. Fergusson
Twitter: @fergieweather
Just the kinda news i was hoping for tbh, im firmly believing this will deliver some decent snow.
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flyer, SteveB, chionomaniac and 8 others like this
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I still think the fact 3 models show snow over us is something to hold on too, i just hope the NAE comes in line or the UKMO that for me would be great stuff.
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From Ian Fergusson: yes Ross, the trend continues a southward rather than northern bias; hopefully worst will miss entirely. Will see.
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I still think we are looking at 2-10cm widely with the higher totals South of Taunton
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Any idea when Ian will be posting?
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I still think the SW will see some nice snowfall, whether it sticks or causes problems is another thing, but thank god the GFS has put the nails away for now..
South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 10/03/13 17z---->
in Regional
Posted
Im still not sure, but it does give me hope for some people in the South as it just seems a bit further North than forecast, might do nothing to the finer details but could mean a slight shift Northwards.