Winter Monsoon
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Posts posted by Winter Monsoon
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Sorry but this might be getting epic. And its heading your way Will
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Ok it slowed down very slightly for about 5 mins but its back on song again!!! This is Amazing
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And a lampost shot
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Heavy snow here
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Pls ppl put yer locations
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Meto have me down for heavy snow midnight thru to 20:00 tomorrow. Lol lets see.
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Lol is that it?
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Snowing in Dukinfield small flakes. Just jumped in car to go mate in Cheadle snowed all the way round m60 and in Cheadle flakes 5p to 20p size. Not hard though just a consistent moderate/light snow. Considering thete wasnt much hope for my area and Stockport etc bonus
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Chief forecasters statement in the warning....
Details remain uncertain regarding the extent and amount of snowfall, in particular the northward extent of snowfall into northern England (indeed some areas may miss the snow altogether). Therefore it is likely that this warning will be updated in the light of new information and may be upgraded to Amber should confidence increase sufficiently.
In other words some people will get a snowfest, but east Manchester will miss out.
Don't be greedy, I have no snow forecast, just dark clouds.
JEALOUS!
The warning extends east across manchester into glossop and practically into shefield hows that missing east Manchester?
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Sadly I think you may be right but it was TEITS and his 'Beast' that I was referring to here as well as Nick's shortwave drama. Both of these could well fall right for us but, if truth be known, we kinda know that this probably won't happen. In truth, after a great start last October, this winter has disappointed in spite of the potential. Even though I hardly ever post in here, I avidly read pretty much everything that is written and have been doing so for the last 8 years or so. My view is, sadly that I think the opportunities have been lost and we may get a bit of snow prior to a toppler or two over the winter, which is quite normal here, but I am of the opinion that the Strat warming will continue to be postponed, the MJO will never quite make it to phases 7 and 8 and real heights will never arrive in Greeny. As I said; missed opportunities...
My gut feeling is this will be a winter of near-misses: we will run out of time before things finally fall into place. The weather is in a pattern that will need some shifting and, by the time ten more days have gone by, we will only have six weeks left of winter. After that longer days and increasing sun heights tend to make any snow cover transient.
So, as ever, I will live in hope but I expect to be disappointed this time around.
Postponed?
Pretty Much ALL the way through the run
However its not getting down to the lower levels BUT this
Says to me the vortex is Potentially going to split all the way to the top. This to me means that the models are certainly going to be interesting viewing especially IF this split continues to be modeled.
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That squall line was virtually non-existent here - not for the first time I appear to have been duped by the very deep purple colours showing on the radar.
I'm probably not that far from you and it absolutely lashed it down here.
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Ive only got two as well ! One very large though...Jesus!! Getting very very bad out there now, sirens have started!!
Sirens?? What sirens
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Oh yeh the cranes
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Heard that the roof on the Chill Factor has been damaged again.
No Surprise there the way that roof is angled
Great its absolutely throwing it down and in this wind its horizontal
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How do you know? Show some prove.
Must admit it is rather a bold statement. I have been lurking here for a few years now and would have thought that view is in a minority just from the volume of the knowledge here. Im not criticising you for that view, its your view and i respect you for having it. However im merely highlighting that consensus is that a vortex is just that...a vortex. So by its name it would suggest that there is a relation of all layers to the others, wouldnt it?
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You may be correct but believe me you woudnt want a winter anything like 62-63 trust me!!
It would be mighty interesting.
Would this help to get a scandi high?
Goes right upto 30mb level almost to 20mb level.
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Interesting to see this happening @ T252
At T384
upto 10mb @ T384 too
I Know its FI but its been there on a few runs now.
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Soz about the image size, dunno how to fix that
Edit - sorted
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But it is the vortex though yes?
Gets bigger upto T384
Appears at 20mb @ T384
and at 10mb T384
Would i be right in saying that its a FI split upto 10mb level???
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It is a split at the very bottom of the strat and stretched a bit higher up but this is real fi stuff at T384
Its T288 charts but @ 100mb it starts at T228. And reaches 20mb @ T288.
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Can i just ask, is that 2 vortices?
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Steve, you need to admit a wrong call here.
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013113012/UN144-21.GIF?30-17
The LP to the North of the High is going E/NE. The High is going to sink to Biscay and then it is going to lead to milder weather.
Ian your going top end up on the ignore list before much longer- considering you are an ex forecaster on here you cannot read a chart?- the trough axis if facing east into a jet that's going SSE - then it will go south./ South east
Im sure the wider audience would correct you in saying its going to go SSE in the next chart with energy build NE behind it to take the ridge that way....
I wish we could see a T168 UKMO chart but SM is 100% wrong.
Sorry CC, you and SM might be coming out with the stuff that people want to hear but it is simply not true. The jet is going over the top and the High is a sinker.
I hope the ECM shows exactly the same at T144 and then we will see what its T168 goes onto show shall we ?
Tee hee you guys really are arguing over charts that are 144+hrs away arent you? - Sorry mods im posting to to make them realise the futility in their argument.
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Problem is with have a jet stream thats pretty much doing this through the whole run:-
Which i think is only helping to keep that high in place with low pressure steering along the jet into norway. It also remains fairly static - at least thats how i read it.
I would have thought we would need that jet to start heading south of us, enabling high pressure to move in a northerly direction, don't really care which way just north will do. With the jet south it would also allow the cold air to flow south.
But thats just a chart produced by a model at 204 hrs - i don't know how reliable the models are at forecasting jet streams at that range so it could be entirely wrong.
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North West England Regional Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Winter Monsoon
forgot not
Good afternoon. Been lurking as i always do at this time of year nice to see the usual suspects here.
I have a question. With the ground being so wet from the rain, will any snow stick and not just melt away?
Regards