Jason M

Were looking at day 8-10 charts here. Anything at day 10 or beyond is about as likely to be right as any of the last few day 10 charts. I'm not too despondent tonight. The initial push from the north looks highly likely. Detail will become clearer later.

If so, they will be running along the east bound carriageway because it never snows south of the central reservation

In 10 days as usual In fairness nothing is resolved yet, more runs needed.

I'd agree with this. Over the last couple of days we had been seeing a steady downgrade of the whole set up. This morning has steadied the ship

Air pressure will always play a very big part. If it had been just 'high' at around 1025 then we'd have been fine, but by tomorrow we will be under an intense area of high pressure. This will cap off the showers as it stops the clouds from growing upwards. Along a convergence line you will do better (and one is forecast) but even with this potential will be very limited. 1-2cm in very lucky spots IMHO. For most, a few flurries.

It can only ever be a few flurries. Air pressure is going to be very high tomorrow. Its actually surprising that we will even see flurries given just how far pressure is rising.

It is coming forward now in the models, but any severity is being eroded run by run. I think we are basically looking at a two day bog standard northerly which for most will just be a couple of cold / dry days. Still time for things to reverse of course, but the trend is not currently our friend.

This spell next weekend is likely to be a complete non event away from Scotland / NE IMHO. Nobody dare say it in the MOD thread but its quietly downgrading all the time. If we see any snow tomorrow best we enjoy it even if its not much. Problem for tomorrow is that pressure is high and rising which is dramatically reducing potential. Normally with that depth of cold you would get some punchy showers. Likely mostly flurries though.

Its a bit deceiving because if you look at the 1040 line for the high its basically in the same place. It looks further north though because the central pressure is now even higher at 1045!! Just our luck to get a deep cold pool over us but under an area of intense high pressure !!!

Whilst I've never bought into the hype surrounding this cold spell (too far out into FI) the way the GFS opp deals with things post 192 hours is just ludicrous.

Considering just how high air pressure will be that's actually quite impressive. If it were around 1025 rather than 1030 -1035 Thames Estuary would be looking at a pretty impressive snow event. As it is, just flurries with an odd light covering.

So, as we were this morning. Decent chance of a northerly around day 8/9/10. Longevity doesn't look great but anything beyond day 10 is utter speculation and the whole situation may come up with some surprises for better or worse. Main observations I have 1. 'IF' it all goes Pear Shaped I still think it will be because it goes west based. 2. Impressive cold pool early next week. If only air pressure wasn't so high, it could have dumped a whole lot of snow! So, things still look good but usual caveats apply. Key to longevity after 15th will be if we can get some heights over Scandi. Its proved well nigh impossible in recent years but I wouldn't rule it out.

For me, good thing is that key timeframes are now inside 192 hours. Far from guaranteed but its no longer at completely ridiculous timescales. IMHO, ignore day 10 and beyond. This happens to be a good run deep in FI but its as likely to be right as the 12Z opp at that range.

Agree its a bit unusual. On the modelling it looks like a streamer through the Thames that moves inland across South Essex and dies very quickly. To be honest it will be a complete non event IMHO so you won't be missing much (if anything).

Yes, but actually the northern side of the estuary looks better placed this time (unusually). I think here I'll see a bit of light snow but even right in the sweet spot it will amount to very little. We are not going to see much snow with pressure that high.

So, just had a quick run through each of the GEFS at 228. I don't normally pay much if any heed to them that far out as 192 hours is normally my limit. They look very good and nearly all are cold or going that way. My main observation though is be very wary of these runs and opps at that range. The solutions on offer all look 'clean' with no shortwaves or other complications. Anything that shows a screaming easterly / northerly where everything goes perfectly should be treated as suspect IMHO. As we get nearer complications will almost certainly arise!!!!

With pressure pf 1035 - 1040 at that point, this must surely be over egging things. Maybe some snow grains around the place but I'll be very surprised if away from areas right on the coast there is much. Even in coastal regions of Kent / Essex only a light dusting I'd have though. I reckon its blown a gasket but we will soon find out!!

The good news though is that the day 12 charts that everybody will get depressed about today are just as big a waste of pixels as the day 12 charts people were ramping yesterday . If we look at todays output in the still long range but slightly more realistic day 8 range things haven't changed very much at all overnight. We still 'might' get a very cold outbreak, its still 'likely' to be short lived but its way out in la la land and it will be end of the weekend before we have a better idea. We have been in worse positions in recent years!

Just had a whizz through the GEFS at 192 which is really my furthest out that I take anything seriously. Nearly all are good charts. The broad set up is similar across nearly all of them (which is good in this case). The full on Easterly is not off the table here by any means!! The Opp run is a classic. It all goes wrong but actually normally most of us would bank that 18Z run without a moments hesitation.

Weirdly, its the depth of the cold that plays against us because it goes from a trigger low to a huge area of low pressure.

This run illustrates the danger. That said, lots went wrong here and its hardly terrible

GEFS at 168 are interesting. Quite a few looking to pull the high NW at earlier timeframe. Looks like models might be starting to pick up on something slightly different.

This run is a real possibility BUT important to note that all of this is 10 - 13 days away, so its deep into FI and we can't take much from it other than just a reminder that this is not a done deal!

Well, now you know

You won't yet (albeit 12Z GEFS had a few). It will be as we get nearer and the complications start to get factored in. With this set up, west based is always a risk.