Mrsf16
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Posts posted by Mrsf16
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Rain rain go away
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PPN about to hit and look :
Current Temp: 2.4°C
High Temp Today:2.4°C at 5:29pm
Low Temp Today:-2.5°C at 8:20am
Dew Point: -1.0°C
Wetbulb:1.2°C
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ZOMG, that's a big old and of PPN making its way eastwards!
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The same question was asked in the SW & CS England thread, so I'll repost here what I posted there as an attempted explanation as to why rainfall is more likely...
... the latest NMM hi-res model is hot off the press and its output suggest why snow is unlikely anywhere in our region....The main area of ppn sweeps through our region between 2000z and 0100z, and the atmospheric parameters in place as modelled are not conducive to snowfall expect perhaps a wintry mix on top of the cotswolds.....
My understanding is that the T850 temperatures are on the high side, around -1c, atmospheric thickness between the 500hpa & 1000 hpa boundaries have DAM values in the 530's, meaning in laymans terms, the air between these boundaries is warmer (relatively speaking) the difference in temperatures & altitude between the boundaries is greater than required parameters for a snowfall event (the greater the difference in altitude, the more warmer air the ppn has to fall through....the lower the DAM value, the closer to ground level the T500/850/1000 boundaries are, the cooler the lower air is).
Dew Points and web bulb temperatures also have postive values throughout the duration of the event, and the 0c isotherm is up at neary 1000 meters throughout the event. It's possible if there are heavier bursts of ppn that the 0c isotherm could be lowered due to evaporated cooling, hence the outside sniff of wintry ppn on top of the cotswolds...
Of course, this little analysis is based on one run, there could be subtle changes in atmospeheric conditions over the next 12 hours
Just to add, for the SE region, the parameters and timings will be slightly differenct as the above post was 'geared' towards the west country thread.
Anyhoos, hope this helps
Thanks AJ, that's really helpful for a novice like me
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Because you are wishing too hard!
Maybe they take into account the PSS factor? (Peterborough Snow Shield)
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Beeb are forecasting heavy rain for us later, why wont this fall as the white stuff rather than the wet stuff?
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Brrrr Current Temp: -2.3°C and falling
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From the model thread:
Looking closer. Here is Friday morning on the 18Z
courtesy of NW extra!
I like this because 1) it looks like a frog and 2) I am in the pink! lol
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I think i'll wait couple more days for those insane charts to verify then i'll do mine, and bottled water is very important, especially with the risks of major water pipes bursting.
Definitely! I like to make sure we are well provisioned for winter, just in case. Financially it doesn't cost a lot to stock up on bottled water, basic provisions, candles etc but you will be glad you got them if you need them!
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I've just ordered my food shopping online... and added 10 litres of bottled water and a bag of de-icing salt... just in case
We got caught out one winter when temps went down to -9 overnight with burst pipes and had no water for 3 days whilst we defrosted!! -
It's my work xmas party next Friday, night in a hotel, the works. If these charts happen then I doubt I'll be getting of the estate
Same as mine Mishy, we're meant to be heading to Melton Mowbray... have a feeling even if we don't get pasted there will be problems at their end!
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mod thread has exploded!!!!!!
If this run were to come off, we could be looking at a record breaking cold spell or mini ice age lol!!!!!
Even Warwickshire could get snow!!!
Maybe it really IS the end of the world, soon be 20th December 2012
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Are we talking about game on for Fri still or is it now on tomoro?
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im further north about half way between peterborough and huntingdon. Probably not west cambs but yeah, nothing here.
I feel your pain Hughsey!
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Looks like the Peterborough snow shield held up well... Enjoy you luck buggers
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Nothing in peterborough!
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Wow, my snow chance for tomorrow just dropped to 21%!!!!
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Oh God, hubby has started already... "No chance of snow, everywhere else will get it, look, look, see.." as he points at the BBC graphics! May I have permission to kill him please!
Aaaaaand, for those of you who remember, we moved Feb this year (it snowed THAT day!) but I have just realised there are no viewable lamposts from either our bedroom or the lounge!!! aaarrrgggghhh!! My old house had a lampost right outside the bedroom window!! Need a new solution... what do other people do? Torches? Bonfire? Walk to the nearest lampost?
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Dear snow Gods,
This year, please don't do that annoying thing of giving the SE'ers a dumping whilst you tease the EA'ers with something that looks like someone dropped a bag of icing sugar. Being a snow lover is hard enough without having to read about people getting inches and inches and all you can get excited about is frost.
So please, remember us in the East, we like the white stuff too
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lovely
Current Temp: 3.5°C
High Temp Today:5.6°C at 11:00am
Low Temp Today:2.4°C at 1:56am
Dew Point:0.9°C
Wetbulb:2.5°C
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The blue is the precipitation lol
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Here's my proper one.
Anywhere in central areas through to the East will have a good shot at lying snow due to lower 850's and low 2m temperatures bordering from -1/0C. There's a pocket of milder 850's between North Wales to Birmingham which needs to be looked at because it doesn't seem at the moment indicative of lying snow, perhaps wet snow/sleet. It all depends on whether the colder air can undercut faster, if it does then a nationwide snow event may be on the cards....depending on precipitation amounts of course.
But, but, but.... I'm under the blue, not the red
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Met office calling light snow now for 6am for Peterborough. Think I might set the alarm earlier than normal
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Not if you live in the north of the regionment to push south too so looks good
We got caught out one winter when temps went down to -9 overnight with burst pipes and had no water for 3 days whilst we defrosted!!
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South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion ~ December 7th 2012>
in Regional
Posted
Rain in Peterborough :-(