Skyhi
-
Posts
51 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Skyhi
-
-
Thank you, sorry if it was a bit off topic, but I should of listened to Stephen yesterday!!...I will continue to try and not look too deeply into each and every model run but remain as confused as the data is at the present time!!
-
hmmm, I would of thought that there would be more data collecting from any possible blocking feature, especially with respect to a previous run which showed that really deep low pressure system out to our s/w....surely if that met any substantial cold blocking to our east the out come would be quite serious indeed....not saying that would happen, but surely it has to be borne in mind?
-
Thank you iceberg....I was not aware that there were that many 'streams' and that many individual sources..no wonder theres so much confusion when trying to come to some sort of guided outcome and agreement with the models. Does this also apply to the American and Euro models?
-
do you mean todays model outputs?
edit....do you mean in respect of todays model outputs so far?
-
Hello weather watchers!....missing data?...please can someone explain this coz im both nervous and confused ?
-
As a newbie, I'm still lost in all this 'flippin' and 'changing' of the models and runs, enough to mek anyone dizzy !!...do I take it that generally, we still dont know what to expect in terms of any forthcoming 'pattern' or favourable agreement of the weather?
Incidentally, wet snow here in Huddersfield, then rain, then wet snow again!!..it feels cold but not sure how cold. Also, is the Meto's forcast for heavy snow on wednesday to be relied upon? -
Wet snow falling here too in huddersfield, not sure what the temperature is but it feels cold!!
The Meto have advisories for W.Yorkshire for heavy snow for wednesday....would be nice to get a few centimetres again, but not sure it would last long!
-
I was only talking about this 18Z GFS Easterly just a minute ago!
-
Well MR Mild , Dan Corbet has just said Colder weather heading our way for all next week .
If he is saying it I really do have to scratch my head and think what do they know what we don't. The rain we have today is actually the same band of rain that is going to swing back round into Scotland and maybe turn a little wintry tomorrow evening. This stills sticks around into Monday and like I said earlier , what ever the models say for the North Sunday could be quite a wintry day and due points look spot on also.
I'm actally a 'coldie'!!....and I respect his forcast, and the forecasters before him who, for some time have been hinting at this cold coming from the east, including my local forecaster (Paul Hudson....interesting reading his blog), that is why I am of the opinion that the UKMO must be following a certain set of models etc to be sticking to this 'eastie'!
-
If the 00z GFS overnight backtracks again towards the UKMO I think most of us will consider driving up a wall.
Interesting stuff, but I bet the BBC forecasts are wrong... again. I'll gladly pat them on the back if they do turn out to be correct. Once again we are none the wiser.
EDIT: Ha thats a lot of 'agains' in that sentence
Maybe the UKMO are onto something that no-one else knows, regardless of what the models are showing?
-
Please back to the model output.
apologies, new here and still learning..
-
with ice as stubborn as it was a week ago, you needed a chizel let alone elbow grease!!
-
If you are expecting a winter like 82, then it will probably be a mild affair from here on in.
Dec 1981 - 0.3C
Jan 1982 - 2.6C (cold first half - mild second half)
Feb 1982 - 4.8C
It's probably not the message you were meaning to get across but apart from Dec 81 being colder earlier and more severe overall, it's not a bad pattern match both in terms of the temperatures and the evolution of the start of the cold weather synoptically.
Ironically, during Feb 1982, pressure was often high to the east, but didn't really influence the UK that much which is a possible outcome we have in 2010.
Thank you for responding, however, I am not sure where you got those temps from, I lived in south wales at the time and it was very, very cold for a considerable length of time with high snow drifts all over the place. It was so cold with blizzards that made the snow stick to the windows!!!! (amongst other places!!), but I'm gonna stick to my guns here.....theres a beast from the east who's been barking on our doorstep for way too long to give up now!!
-
I am often extremely impressed with the experience and professionalism you people have in relation to our weather. I try very hard to follow and try to understand the 'ensembles', 'runs' etc that you all refer to and the UKMO's outlook and predictions, But, I would back you anyday and seriously think you should apply, as a group possibly, for the post at the UKMO.
I am still of the opinion, after following your views based on the models etc and your own opinions that we are very likely to see another winter of '82'
coming up. I say this based on my own experience of that winter and the similar trends to what we have seen so far, and to your own opinions. P.S.....I did NOT mention any seagulls , but my cat has been behaving strangely since our first bout of nasty weather hit us. -
Interesting kunundrum, out in FI GFS this evening is calling for Raging zonailty, and a fat juicy bartlett, yet the ECM plays the complete opposite with HP dominating
to the NEast before sinking south, only to be replaced by a new HP centre forming over Iceland so all the while we remain in an easterly of sorts. Whats your hunch this evening.? Raging rain and gales and mild. Or cold raw, dull and very cold, with snizzle sleet and snow ? Any takers ?
The latter for me.....bring on those blizzards and bone chillin temps and be done wiv it!!
-
Fasinating model output at the moment. My best guess based on all the model runs is an E,ly early next week followed by the possible chance of the block moving NW with a surge of bitterly cold N,lys into Scandi. Now exactly where this block goes to our NW will dicate how cold late next week will be. However at this stage I really fancy a decent cold spell towards the latter half of next week.
Most probably change tomorrow morning.
I agree!!...however, even though I am an absolute novice at all this weather watching, charts etc, the forecast on bbc news at six said the easterly cold is going to return???...does this mean literally or is it still a battlefield scenario on wed's?
-
If you go to the NASA webpage, there is indeed, something hurtling towards us and they are aware of it, I think it's called 'Nabiru'...so not all of it is 'tosh'.....tho I AM worried by this supposed firing of 'HAARP'.....very worried.
-
We must back the GFS at this range; if we look at the event between Xmas and New Year; the fax charts would have us believe that the PPN would make it no further North than the M4/South Midlands but the GFS correctly called it making into Northern England, it also called the temp rise ahead of the PPN correctly. Of course it doesn't always get it right, but it's a global model based in America up against the local based METO output who, supposedly, have access to a super computer specifically designed for the UK.
Which is better pound for pound ? Go figure as they say !
Maybe, just maybe, this 'super-computer' has some gremlins floating around it's circuit boards causing all these charts to be all over the place!!!
-
Just about stopped here too, the temperature as falled to 0.5 which is the coldest its been for nearly a week believe it or not. Really hope next week delivers for us again, I was getting use to the snow on the ground. Mr Hudson seemed quite confident, hope hes not jinxed it.
Whats your current depth mate, I ve friends in Mirfield who keep winding me up
saying they have got tons.LoL
I am not sure about Mirfield, but here I would say about 2-3cms and still snowing!...havent been outside to measure it as I've got a stinking cold, but very easily the depth I've just mentioned if not a tad more. It started off very fine and grainey but gathered pace to give moderate but occasionally heavier burst.I am a complete novice at all this but I do remember the early eighties event when I lived in south wales, it was so cold the very heavy and drifting snow was sticking to and coming into my bedroom window. We ended up with 5 foot snowdrifts ( a lot deeper in places) and had to dig our way out!!!.......although my memory isnt that good, this winter so far, reminds me of that winter in that the pattern that seems to be playing out right now is so similar.
-
Still snowing here too in Huddersfield, a good covering and loving it!! But I bet it's going to be an absolute nightmare on the roads and pavements again in the rush hour period. Still cold...-1.
-
What do you mean? The emphasis on exclamation marks have confused me.
LoL, no offence to any weathermen, but with the way the weather has been behaving lately, it must be a nightmare to predict even the next 24 hours let alone the next few days!
-
Will this freeze by tomorrow morning as bad as it did this morning? The roads would be lethal!!!
Paul Hudson seems to think so!!!!
-
The snow on Saturday was always on the cards. The comment about cold air returning is interesting.
I wasnt sure as we seem to be on one hell of a rollercoaster ride with the weather. Huddersfield here, been snowing for a few hours, light to moderate...good covering. I have never, ever, heard of people having to walk on their hands and knees on the pavements and roads before because the ice was so bad!!
-
Paul hudson on look north thinks we will be back to cold at the begining of next week, with the possibility of some snow on saturday.....does this mean it will be getting cold, a little colder, or very cold...any thoughts??
Incidentally, wet snow here in Huddersfield, then rain, then wet snow again!!..it feels cold but not sure how cold.
If he is saying it I really do have to scratch my head and think what do they know what we don't. 
saying they have got tons.
I am not sure about Mirfield, but here I would say about 2-3cms and still snowing!...havent been outside to measure it as I've got a stinking cold, but very easily the depth I've just mentioned if not a tad more. It started off very fine and grainey but gathered pace to give moderate but occasionally heavier burst.
But I bet it's going to be an absolute nightmare on the roads and pavements again in the rush hour period. Still cold...-1.
Model Output Discussion:
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I am hoping, given the impressive charts so far, that we get more of the same in agreement .......otherwise I fear my sanity is most certainly going to fail me!!
