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Icebox

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Everything posted by Icebox

  1. Icebox
    Well I will sit on the fence at the moment I would like to see the 00zs before trying to judge which way it will go. With so much flux in the model output at the moment you cannot give a definative answer...... Goodnight JP
  2. Icebox
    Reading between the lines yes........ although some of the output tonight goes against that, mind you they havn't put out another update so they must be happy with what they have gone with.
  3. Icebox
    There is no way this is a done deal yet JP I think we'll have a few more twists and turns yet...... hopefully positive ones!
  4. Icebox
    Or a very laid back approach......
  5. Icebox
    UKMO has been consistent of late JP but we have seen some dramatic climbdowns before..... mind you they all do that!
  6. Icebox
    Agreed Meto have a thankless task at the moment, I'm liking those wet bulb charts Ian F posted very nice of Exeter to allow them out into the public domain....... I don't suppose there is any chance he could post a link to MOGREPS too! I still cannot get excited about the Monday/Tuesday event though, mother nature seems determined to put every barrier possible in the way.
  7. Icebox
    From one John to another, What are your thoughts regarding the models handling of the current set-up? It seems to me they are all toying with differing evolutions, hence when we think we are going to have model agreement one of them jumps ship and runs with a scenario already run previously by another model (primarily GFS & ECM ). I honestly believe FI starts around 36-48 hrs I took a step back from the models today just popped in the model discussion now and then, having looked at them tonight I'm really not to sure what to think. UKMO looks pretty tasty but I'm still going with the ECM, so I'm praying for an upgrade tomorrow! With regard to the snow potential (which it still is imho ) early next week I think we need a small correction west so we have a bit more margin for error, But I feel Wednesday/Thursday is a better bet the fax looks good with unstable air and a nice E/NE--N/E we must be in with a chance of a streamer or two surely? John.
  8. Icebox
    Very sad that you feel that way Paul as many of us value your input...... unfortunately we seem to have been invaded by a few total %(?&$ of late and it has changed the happy positive vibe that we had in the thread, well most of the time anyway before it was split.
  9. Icebox
    As things stand I would expect an all snow event.......
  10. Icebox
    Pretty impressive John......... I still feel the models are struggling to deal with the current set-up, and we may find any potential breakdown being pushed back. Hopefully!
  11. Icebox
    Apologies if I was a little harsh earlier Dexter I had just spent a while in the model thread wading through stupid amounts of 1 and 2 line moaning posts, then when I saw your cautionary post I treated it the same way which I shouldn't of. Right.......... back to the models and its good to see a better 12z at least in the short term, I don't believe there's a lot of point looking past 96hrs at the moment. UKMO still holding firm, very with the output this afternoon.
  12. Icebox
    Dexter stop hanging on every run like its nailed...... they are not! There is so much flux and volatility in the model suite right now, the Meto's latest stock phrase is Shannon entropy at record levels according to Ian F. So mass confusion and odd evolutions are to be expected, as are downgrades and upgrades.
  13. Icebox
    I'm liking GP's thoughts from an IMBY perspective, we normally do well with heights to the N/E. Usual caveats apply.
  14. Icebox
    I have spent the last 15 minutes in the mod thread, gnashed teeth,thrown toys,spat dummies etc. Total carnage in the madhouse today and the models with the exception of the GEM are not that bad. The ECM has found a new evolution but is still good for short term cold, there is a lot more flux this morning and we still dont have model agreement even in the shorter term which I find incredible. Anyway I'm rambling now so I'll get to the point....... colder from tonight snow potential increasing Monday/Tuesday. But with model volatility post 120hrs and FI around 72 hrs we should just concentrate on this weekend. J
  15. Icebox
    Funilly enough CR London especially N/W London can benefit from the Cheshire gap streamer but only of course with a north westerly blowing. Screams CONVECTION!!
  16. Icebox
    Hi John, Yes I agree re Tuesday and as you correctly point out should a streamer set up which is very possible with sst's of I believe 7 degrees and minus 10 uppers, we could expect some serious convection I wouldn't rule a possibility of thundersnow.
  17. Icebox
    Ian F posted this 30 mins ago in the mad thread. We have reason for concern Monday, then again Tuesday, and later in week too. UKMO closely on case for potential significant snow events in various parts of country based on combined GM, EC & MOGREPS output.
  18. Icebox
    What about........ Kent slider Paul? or London slipper.
  19. Icebox
    After many close but no cigar moments in the past, including the "THAT ECM" last December....... no. There is still some uncertainty but i'm sure when the models firm up the excitement on here take off!
  20. Icebox
    As always usual caveats apply it can very easily go wrong and I would prefer to have the GFS on side, but it is an option and a good one at that.
  21. Icebox
    They don't get much better than this! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&archive=0
  22. Icebox
    I have just donned my tin hat and ventured into the model thread, fully expecting to find low flying toys and spat out dummies. Actually I found quite a positive vibe bar a few doomers. No change short term in fact maybe a slight upgrade for the 12z ECM and it is a beauty tonight for the midterm and before everybody jumps on me I know its all FI but still, great potential. Fingers crossed it doesn't decide to jump ship to the GFS camp.
  23. Icebox
    By wobble I do not mean a huge backtrack.... I still believe GFS is barking up the wrong tree but we need to see it starting to back down, which it's not doing.
  24. Icebox
    ECM having a wobble now......... l am starting to have concerns that its on to something. That said the GFS is going against background signals and most of the other models. Confused.com!!!!
  25. Icebox
    I'm with you Paul it just doesn't seen plausable, the GFS is now trying to re-write the laws of weather physics........ if there is such a thing.
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