Joe Bloggs

He’s obsessed with altitude. ? If the 18z is accurate then altitude won’t matter - if you’re away from the coast then it’ll snow, even places like lowland Manchester IMO.

I think we should forget about the slider.. or at the very least see it as a temporary annoyance which gets in the way of the polar WNW’ly. Slider or no slider (yes, it’ll probably go south), we have an entire week of cold WNW’ly winds, and the 18z has removed a lot of the marginality, even at lower levels. A very cold and snowy run for the NW. Hilly areas will get absolutely buried.

For anyone worried about marginal uppers, it’s worth remembering that the below setup for 29 Jan 2015 gave a heavy snowfall to low lying South Manchester - note the rather tepid 850’s! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2015/cfsr/CFSR_1_2015012906_2.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2015/cfsr/CFSR_1_2015012906_1.png

If GFS is correct then I don’t agree. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_144_2.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_144_10.png snow for most of us IF ( a big if) GFS is on the mark.

Weird in Manchester. Was a temporary slight covering in the city centre this morning and there are still small piles of snow outside Piccadilly station. Nothing accumulated at home in South Manchester - the city centre is about 20m higher up than here so it can actually do better than here in this setup.

Heavy and starting to settle in the city centre too.

Now 90% snow here. Evaporative cooling.

Heavy rain here in South Manchester now, and it is turning more sleety with some snow flakes mixed in. My car thermo says +1.5C

Yeah good to see South Cumbria doing so well :-)

http://www.buxtonwebcam.com

Yep this chart shows it quite well too. http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/arpege-42-13-0.png?28-23 Still, not long to wait now. At this stage it’s best to stick to the radar and look at your dewpoints. I strongly suspect it’ll be a full rain event for us, maybe some initial sleet.

I’m not sure if anyone has posted this yet, but this is the 12z arpege - soon to be updated. Looks good for many in the NW. only really Manchester that misses out - presumably the model is factoring a UHI effect http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/arpegeuk-42-20-0.png?28-17

Yep as I said I’m definitely not expecting any snow here. :-) If the majority of model output is wrong, and we somehow manage to scrape a dusting then I’ll see it as an unexpected bonus. Very unlikely though - have lived here a long time and I’ve never known this type of situation (rain preceded by snow) to deliver here.

Yep. South Manchester. 40m ASL.

I do think you’ll get some snow. Arpege looks good for some - although not necessarily for lowland Manchester. GFS poor as you say, AROME much more promising for all. My hunch is rain and sleet for here, snow (for a time) above 150m. We’ll see.

No it shows rain for many parts of the region... http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/nmm_uk1-42-19-0.png?28-17

12z Arpege is very messy, and I think a bit less wintry than previous runs for the Manchester area. I’m sure the white scaling covered the entire region in previous output, but not on the 12z. http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/arpegeuk-1-18-0.png?28-17 http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/arpegeuk-1-19-0.png?28-17 http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/arpegeuk-1-20-0.png?28-17 Yes there’s a wintry mix across much of the region (snow for the east and high ground), but for Manchester there are blobs of rain pretty much throughout. I expect rain and sleet here, certainly by the time I commute to work just before 9. Any snow I see falling will be a bonus.

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome/aromehd-1-19-0.png?28-16 12z AROME (1.3km) is better however. Has snow for much of the region through rush hour, rain reaching Merseyside about lunchtime. Not sure how accurate this model is, but I think it is relatively well thought of.

Manchester can have some very odd local variations! It has stopped now - left a slight dusting here.

Snowing in South Manchester, settling immediately

Wet snow even down here now. (30m ASL)

Just rain and sleet here in South Manchester. Nearly snow in the heavier showers but not quite.

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/arpegeuk-42-46-0.png?12-05 The risk is there on Arpege, but later on in the evening and over high ground.

I can confirm that Carol on BBC Breakfast is saying they are keeping an eye on the possibility of snow for the Wednesday evening rush hour across NW England.. Seems a bit of a ramp to me but the risk must be there.

Agreed. Although remember however that as pressure is much lower you can get away with slightly milder 850’s. I’m going to keep an eye but I’m not expecting anything here.