Joe Bloggs

Had light snow for the past half an hour in south Manchester but it’s from the east, not the front.

Despite my earlier post, the front does now appear to be weakening slightly in the last couple of radar frames. Should still make it through the region though.

I was thinking the opposite to be honest, at least at the moment.

It should start snowing in Liverpool/Wirral within the next half an hour?

New graphics launch tomorrow. :-)

It’s always so pessimistic! And often correct! The rain/snow charts always look fine until you look at the hourly precipitation ones. If it verifies we’ll barely get a flake here.

Yes Euro4 continues to be the party pooper. Hope it’s wrong.

UKV really ramping things up for the city centre tomorrow.

No worries. The amount of data is enough to drive you mad. Thankfully they're all pretty much saying the same thing. For it to not snow at all, they will ALL have to be wrong.

No it definitely is not looking like a major event but perhaps a light covering for some. Forgot AROME - looks ok too. https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/arome.php?ech=27&mode=101&map=30

Latest model guidance for tomorrow's front... https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=29&mode=1&map=5 - NMM https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/arpege.php?ech=28&mode=1&map=330 - Arpege https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/icon-eu.php?ech=26&mode=1&map=510 - ICON https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/hirlam.php?ech=29&mode=1&map=430 - HIRLAM http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_30_43.png - GFS http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/180205_0000_36.png - ECM http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2018/02/05/basis06/ukuk/prec/18020612_0506.gif - EURO4 All in all we have very good agreement now of the front making it across the NW without too much of a fizzle. Not a single model completely destroys the front before it clears our region, but the models disagree on the intensity of the precipitation. GFS and HIRLAM are keener for some heavier precipitation, ICON and EURO4 only really show light stuff towards Manchester and the Peaks. The models also disagree on the front's timing - the peak appears to be the morning around 10am but this varies by model. For a change, more northern and western parts of the NW look likely to get the heavier snow - there could be some issues at rush hour in Liverpool and Preston for example. If we do get any accumulation, there could be some melting in the afternoon before a re-freeze after sunset. It's notable that Euro4 is not modelling much snow accumulation across the region and this should be noted. The front could easily be more potent than the NWP suggests, but we won't know until the early hours. 12z guidance won't help us much IMO - it's a radar job from now.

We’re due a bit of good luck aren’t we? :-) Fingers crossed it isn’t just snizzle. We don’t really have EURO4 on board in terms of anything significant - not getting my hopes up too much.

18z Hirlam http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam/hirlamuk-1-39-0.png?04-23 http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam/hirlamuk-0-39-0.png?04-23 Looks really good.

Yes but what I mean is we’re not looking at a sleet or rain event. Not the sort of setup where you need to be up high to guarantee snow, like so many others have been this winter. the crucial bit is whether the band will make it here in the first place with any significance. :-) I agree temps won’t necessarily guarantee lasting cover all day - but the fact we’re looking at snow falling at temps below freezing is notable IMO. :-) Also remember a frost is forecast as soon as the sun goes down on Tuesday too.

Eg low lying Preston. Heavy snow falling at -1C

I don’t think altitude will play much of a part on Tuesday tbh. If the front gets here it should be snow at all levels, certainly inland. In fact some of the snow could be falling with temps below freezing.

18z GFS is decent - a relatively active front http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK18_39_43.png

Not good news from the EURO4 I’m afraid. The front dies a death and there’s no snow accumulation anywhere APART FROM on the immediate coast.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_45_43.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_45_38.png GFS suggests 2m temps of 2C or 3C with dewpoints around freezing. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_45_37.png You’ll probably be ok but obviously you’re looking less cold than inland, but that’s usually a given anyway. The plus side is you get the heaviest precipitation.

12z run updates for Tuesday... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_48_43.png http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam/hirlamuk-1-45-0.png?04-17 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/iconeu_uk1-1-44-0.png?04-16 http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/arpegeuk-1-44-0.png?04-17 Looking good for a light covering for most of us. GFS and HIRLAM most bullish. Nothing hugely substantial but it won’t be marginal apart from on the immediate coast. Maybe a cm or so. Awaiting NMM, Euro4 and ECM. Still definite opportunity for the front to completely fizzle before it reaches Greater Manchester, but this looks unlikely according to most of the NWP.

Hi Chris I think the BBC are continuing to use the Met data for now? The BBC app forecasts should map the MetO ones.

Good news from the models for our patch today. All now show Tuesday’s front surviving across the NW with snow for many. Not a huge amount but should be a light covering for most of us. This could change yet again and is certainly not settled quite yet. Indeed the upcoming 06z runs could change things. The MetO UKV must have improved overnight too as it’s now showing heavy snow falling at -1C here in lowland South Manchester for Tuesday morning.

12z Arpege completely kills the front on Tuesday before it even reaches Manchester. 12z GFS however is far better with a few hours of snow with temps around freezing.

Moderate snow in Heaton Moor with a slushy covering - most I’ve seen all winter.

Eno forgetting Ken Dodd’s name on the weather forecast just now is possibly the most cringe-worthy thing I’ve ever seen on television. I wont bother explaining - you had to see it. :/