Joe Bloggs

Can I just say I absolutely love reading your analyses. Fingers crossed for Edinburgh next week... looking good tonight after a high pressure blip earlier at 00z. Hopefully ECM will look better too.

Great summary Lomond! Hope that Edinburgh dumping comes off. The city nearly always does well on an easterly. With a colder than normal Scandinavia and North Sea then this spell could be more severe than would otherwise be the case. Fingers crossed for Eastern Scotland!

00z ECM ensembles for London http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html Still look rather promising to me.

I have never understood the obsession with the idea of the UM being unreliable at T+144. The verification stats suggest that it is up there with GFS in terms of accuracy, if not more accurate. I have seen plenty of occasions in the past when the UM has caught on to a trend more quickly than the other models, shown a different evolution at T+144, and been proved right. Like you say though, ECM will be interesting. The UM T+144 chart could bring snow to many, the main question to ask, assuming the block makes it that far NW of course, is whether the block can hold for a while.

There's actually some snow knocking on Edinburgh's door just now...! +1C/-3C, I'd expect snow.

Fair do's. Enjoy your break from the radar. If it starts snowing on Monday though I bet you'll take a peek...

NAE suggests we'll get some precip Joe, suggest rain at first glance http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/09/basis18/ukuk/prty/10011112_0918.gif 850-1000hPa 's look favourable for snow though http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/09/basis18/ukuk/th85/10011115_0918.gif It all depends on the intensity of the North Sea modification. Snow (certainly wet snow) isn't out of the question yet.

LOL it was bound to happen given I am coming back to uni tomorrow! It's all about the dewpoint really. I'd prefer 3C/-1C to 1/1C 850 - 1000 hPa thicknesses from the 18z NAE STILL look favourable for snow out to T+48 , it all depends whether the onshore breeze and North Sea modification are the overriding parameters. You never know, we might be surprised.

TBH I'm not 100% convinced that places like Edinburgh are without a snow risk in the next 48 hours. If you look at the 850 - 1000 hPa thicknesses on the NAE model they quite comfortably allow for snow. Monday need watching...

Hi there.. I'm heading back to Edinburgh tomorrow (trains permitting), and judging by the latest charts I wouldn't be surprised to see some more snow tomorrow, not that marginal either, still some rather cold uppers. I would have thought pressure would be too high but just look at this morning! http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn061.png Tuesday onwards it becomes much more marginal. Given how cold it is to the east though, at a guess, 850's -5C or below should do.

re. the showers about to cross the Pennines, you'd be surprised how often the Pennines can actually enhance the showers, rather than weaken them! Could be a light top up for East Manchester within the next hour. www.raintoday.co.uk

What a great reply, cheers.

Morning all. I'm heading back to Edinburgh on Sunday, and it looks as though there will be a southeasterly flow early next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif Does anyone want to hazard a guess what sort of precipitation this would give? Will Edinburgh be losing any of its lovely snow?

If you're in the conurbation of Manchester, believe me, the conditions at Ringway can be very different. It has little to no influence from the UHI effect and is itself a bit of a frost hollow. I can easily believe it is -11C at Manchester Airport. You only have to look at the amount of snow we have, look at the fact we have no wind, and look at our current airmass. All the ingredients are there.

Why sound so sure when you are not? We have the deepest snow cover since 1981. There is no wind. We have cold air aloft. Believe me, it could easily be -11C in Manchester. I've just got back from the pub and I nearly turned into an icicle.

Manc airport is *still* -1C/-1C , Old Trafford -0.1C/-1.1C If we are going to have issues it will be over the next couple of hours, but still absolutely fine at the moment in terms of dewpoints. It's going to be a mental Manc rush hour in a few hours if this keeps up.

Still coming down thick and fast here, must be getting on for 10cm now and I'm in Heaton Moor just down the road from you. I think getting precipitation later on won't be an issue, still plenty upwind. The only issue is whether it'll all stay as snow.

I can't believe Ashton isn't getting it! You are literally just down the road from me. Stopped now though.

This is turning into an epic snowfall here! Still absolutely pouring with snow here just to the north of Stockport. God knows how deep it is now...

Heavy snow here again. Getting a bit ridculous.

3 inches at least here just 4 miles from Manchester city centre. Not a bad effort by any means!

More to come your way! Still really heavy snow just to your north in the Heatons. Well chuffed. (for now)

I was going to go to bed but I just can't... Snowing very heavily *again*

But it's where the showers have been gaining intensity!

www.raintoday.co.uk Just look at the latest radar!!! North Manchester snow machine anyone? Manchester is surrounded by the stuff.