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Everything posted by Cheshire Freeze
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Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
A Face like Thunder this was yesterday morning mate (the squall). Today we’ve had intermittent hail bursts on and off through the afternoon. We’ve been right on the edge of that line of shower activity. -
Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Cheshire Freeze replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Turquoise The winds were something else here under that squall. Things literally bent horizontal for a brief period. If it had lasted any longer than it did there would have been a lot of damage (trees were already blown down as it was). -
Moans, ramps and banter
Cheshire Freeze replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
SunSean yep that’s how someone with a lowish heat tolerance will feel here in the UK when it’s hot. You feel like you can’t escape it and it’s made even worse when you have no aircon in your home. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Cheshire Freeze replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Scorcher not really seen anyone get excited about cold at this point? Think most people, me included, want a bit of warmth and sunshine? -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Cheshire Freeze replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Cheshire Freeze replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS consistent with strong Greenland heights towards the latter part of the month- Creates a path for the jet stream to ultimately head south once more- Any settling down with HP close to the UK looks a temporary affair as things stand…though with the swampish nature of the landscape at the moment, any dry weather is appreciated. Any southerly tracking low pressure will start to pack more rainfall as we approach May and more latent energy is added into the fold. That’s what made May-July 2007 so wet (high PWAT values). -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Cheshire Freeze replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
bluearmy it’d be quite something to go an entire spring without a UK HP at some point during its course…so it was always likely to perk up. The kicker will be whether it’s a temporary pattern change or something a bit more substantial. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Cheshire Freeze replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
northwestsnow yep EC and GFS both hinting at repeated N’ly outbreaks courtesy of N Atlantic heights. Could be some unseasonably cold nights with that set up. Going forward it’ll be interesting to see where developing La Nina takes us. It’ll be one of two routes IMO. Heights that move E at the mid latitude (Euro heights and plumes) or heights that alternate between Greenland and Scandi, leaving the UK at the mercy of slow moving troughs (ala 2007). What route transpires will ultimately dictate the early summer period (May-July) IMO. -
Moans, ramps and banter
Cheshire Freeze replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
danm pah! Scotland hit that in January didn’t they -
Moans, ramps and banter
Cheshire Freeze replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The rain really doesn’t bother me…guess I’m weird Feel sorry for the people it does get down and depress, that’s how I feel during anticyclonic periods! -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Cheshire Freeze replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not sure how the upcoming spell is going to unfold. Can the ground take up to another 100mm of rain in the next couple of weeks? GFS 6z has us up there as one of the wettest parts of the hemisphere. How long until flooding becomes an issue? -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Cheshire Freeze replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Depends where you are I guess. May and September are by far the driest months in these parts (NW England) in my experience. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Cheshire Freeze replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Cheshire Freeze replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just to emphasise how cold that modelled airmass is, even the April sun cannot heat the 2m temperature above freezing for the Midlands north -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Cheshire Freeze replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cheese Rice -12 850s and low thickness with a strongish sun…I’d take that all day long for the wild weather at the surface it’d likely bring! -
Rapid collapses into Nina usually equals wet, doesn’t it?