Cheshire Freeze

Must say, I didn’t expect anything this far south in the region

Surprise covering of snow here

I think this stuff was always meant to be patchier than the stuff that will affect further N?

Rob McElwee is undoubtedly one of the best presenters of the weather ever. You could tell he knows his stuff and he seemed to become excitedly mischievous when snow was on the way. Absolutely one of the all time greats.

We’re at real risk of an atmospheric river setting up. The output is getting closer and closer to it. Big flooding problems possible if it does set up

That’s a runner LP and would be more violent than it appears due to the sharp pressure differential.

That low pressure at the weekend needs watching. GFS, ICON, GEM and UKMO all have it to some extent this morning A couple of the GEFS produce really severe outcomes-

Guess who’s in the dry gap

I suspect it’ll go cold in February but I don’t think it’ll be courtesy of a traditional block, at least not initially. I think we’ll go into a period of NW-SE aligned jet with cold zonality. Proper blocking later Feb into March.

Might end up warmer next week than any point in March IMO. Seasonal models hell bent on Greenland blocking, the CFS has had the same signal for 4 months now Why is it that we have to have our winter in March these days?

There isn’t enough westerly component to the wind to get the showers far enough inland, even if a streamer does set up.

I think that there’s one thing we’ve learned over the years, and that is that the models tend to count down to SW’lys a lot better than they do N’lys or E’lys in winter! Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5012307

I think that there’s one thing we’ve learned over the years, and that is that the models tend to count down to SW’lys a lot better than they do N’lys or E’lys in winter!

Inhibited by that LP to the S I think. We’d have been better with a deep, unimpeded flow.

There really is no easy way out of that pattern.

What am I meant to be looking at then because there’s nothing in the modelling? Winds are too N’ly to get precipitation into inland NW England on Thur.

Even the Metoffice text forecast doesn’t mention anything for Wed/Thur ‘Probably drier and sunnier on Wednesday and Thursday with isolated wintry showers. Staying cold with frost and ice.’

I looked at the warning and was equally as baffled. Not so much as a flake of snow showing on the automated forecast. I’m guessing the warning may well be removed for us tomorrow.

How does ‘into February’ write off the next 6-7 weeks?

Don’t see where any surprises are meant to come from. Flow isn’t strong nor established enough. Winds very slack in the ‘dead zone’ to the N of that LP skirting to the S. If you’re in the Midlands, for example, any snow chances look isolated.

We’re looking into February, possibly even back end. I’m personally looking forward to spring now. Only so much rain and gloom one can take.

Yep called it ages ago via PM to you, as you know. As soon as that split SSW failed the writing was on the wall. I’ve been fairly quiet in here because to be honest I didn’t want the backlash for being ‘negative’. The trop teleconnections can take you so far but if the strat is against you (as it is since the displacement) then it’s sub optimal. It might be weaker than average but it’s spinning away where we don’t want it, rather than being split or displaced well away from our N or NW. We can only hope that it’s not too wet going forward because I fear flooding will be the main news going forward if we go hyper zonal. GFS is trending wetter and wetter, another 100mm of rain in some exposed western parts before month’s end.

There really is no easy way out of this pattern shown on GFS FI

Only in the UK would you see a slight disturbance like that kick up a sector of that magnitude. Absolute cack.

UKMO