Cheshire Freeze

The thing that helped you lot get the deep snow was the incessant showers before the frontal event, the winds weren't northerly enough to get them at an angle where they were affecting this far south in the region. Has been a similar story for the past couple of weeks. Very frustrating for me but good news for those further north Not too sure about Congleton and Sandbach, I expect Congleton may have done OK For me, this spell has been nowhere near as exceptional as 7/8th Feb 2007. That was a marginal situation but as that front from the south pushed up it brought snow so heavy that it literally shocked me. Ended up with about 6 inches before it melted away. I got starnded for 3 hours on a bus back from Stoke, will never forget it. The front never made it to Manchester Anyway, will try and upload some pics in a min to show how sparse the snow is here Aaron

The thing that helped you lot get the deep snow was the incessant showers before the frontal event, the winds weren't northerly enough to get them at an angle where they were affecting this far south in the region. Has been a similar story for the past couple of weeks. Very frustrating for me but good news for those further north Not too sure about Congleton and Sandbach, I expect Congleton may have done OK Aaron

Great pictures. They have really made me jealous Aaron

I completely agree. The GFS, to my eyes, has been nothing short of abysmal since its switch over to the parallel. I think maybe they rushed the change over somewhat? The thing is, it seems to pick up a wrong pattern then stubbornly stick with it right until the last gasp. I don't understand, i think it must be a data problem (or lack of it) that is contributing. There is a theory going about at the moment that data from the north Atlantic around Greenland is sparser than usual because of a lack of flight data as pilots are flying well to the south to catch the jet stream. Aaron

What the hell is going on with it? It's going to have to move fast if it's going to hit the south as forecast. Lets hope it intensifies ready for south Cheshire, you lot have had enough now Aaron

I feel your pain, we had a few cm here this morning but nothing since. It's not being made easier by the other half sending me pics of insane amounts of snow in Stockport! :rolleyes: Aaron

It's the evolution of the GFS and its member that is concerning me. Going by the GFS we will be over the worst of this spell by the end of the weekend. The ECM is a stunner and its ensembles are consistent, we just need to see this consistency keep going. I am leaning towards the ECM......just. It could all implode on its next run though. I'm looking for the 12z to give some general signs that it is moving towards the UKMO and the ECM thoughts Aaron

Just checked the ensembles on meteociel.....they are a downgrade with the ensemble mean regarding 850 temps at 180 hrs much higher than the previous run. Doesn't really fit with the ECM and UKMO, someone has got it badly wrong FWIW i don't rate the GFS at all since its switch to the old parallel run, seems even less accurate than the old GFS, if it flips in this scenario I really don't think I will be using it again. Fairplay if it has the evoloution correct though Aaron

You are near the sea, wait until Feb/March and see what a good northwesterly does for you then when the Irish sea is considerably colder.... As for me, the temperature isn't the problem, just need some precipitation that doesn't consist of 3 flakes in a gentle breeze Aaron

True! You seem to be in quite a good location for the snow that's been falling tonight, over the past few weeks it has seemed that we are just too far south as the wind has been too far to the west. To get the showers right down here we need a more northerly component to the wind Aaron

I would if I still had my car! Gave it to my dad a couple of years ago, I walk or train it everywhere now Aaron

Taking the time to look at the forecasting models tonight, it seems that the GFS is out on its own regarding positioning for the high over the weekend. Seems just a little too far south to me; metoffice and ECM have a slightly stronger easterly flow. I fully expect the GFS to backtrack on this one. Also, don't be fooled by the slightly higher uppers that push in behind the initial easterly blast- make no mistake about it, the surface temperature will be bitter and the wind chill will only add to that. Finally, after the weekend and early next week I think it is currently around 60/40 in favour of prolonged cold. As Koldweather says, the GFS comes close to breaking down the highs defences, only to keep it strong in the long run. There is a danger that the block either sinks on its eastern flank or gets pushed away to the east, thus allowing an Atlantic influence to take over. One to monitor but as long as the UKMO and ECM say yes to prolonging the cold, i'm happy. Aaron

It has snowed here in the last hour but nothing to write home about. Looks like Manchester and the north of the county have stolen all of my snow again Aaron