Cheshire Freeze

yep the pattern looks locked to me now. What interesting times we are in! If this is a long term synoptic switch around, there must be good odds on our first sub zero winter CET for many years this coming winter. We have endured many many winters above average, has it flicked the other way? As an aside,my geography lecturer is convinced we will see dramatic cooling within the next 20 years, with the tipping point having already been reached.

Cooor blimey, quite a nip to that straight northerly shown on the GFS 12z at 162 hours!

Still kicking off here. Must be some flooding issues on the roads by now

This storm developed seemingly out of no-where. Gutters being overwhelmed with the sheer intensity of rain ATM Aaron

We must be under those. Thunder, lightning and torrential rain here, really dark outside also Aaron

Some nice convective potential shown on the 12z GFS for next week. Polar northwesterly airstream would bring some great cloudscapes, along with some wintry showers of sleety rain, hail and wet snow in any heavier showers. Lovely jubbly Aaron

Too close to call, not as straight forward as you may think. I normally have a gut feeling but things are on a knife edge as far as i'm concerned. ECM will be telling later The UKMO chart for Wednesday looks too mild south of the border for snow to me, though it is better than the GFS at the same timeframe. Thursday-Friday looks as though the snowline may push back south and provide potentially heavy back edge snow from the Midlands north and westwards

Discrepencies between GFS and UKMO today then. Which one is nearer the mark?

Best to wait for the UKMO but if that backs the GFS scenario then I fear it'll be game over for the mid-end of the week for us snow lovers

Who's not to say that it won't happen like the GFS is showing it Shaun. Over the past few runs it has been pushing the milder air further north quite bullishly

Due to the trajectory of the low on Wednesday on the GFS 12z, it's looking like rain for most south of the border

Fair bit of altitude up there in Keele aswell Ian; well compared to Crewe anyway

A few pics from about 7am

A mess of a forecast in all honesty. She must have realised that a slight shift in LP tracks would make major differences in the weather being experienced in any given area. I think a week ahead forecast today was pretty pointless TBH and Wednesdays system could be pushed south or north nearer the time. Also the old problem of the graphics was highlighted too...utterly useless

Was certainly a nice surprise to wake up to Ian. Wasn't expecting as much as what fell with being on low ground circa 50 metres above sea level; that didn't seem to matter last night. I have been quite bitter this winter about areas just to the north of both me and you getting major snow amounts (about 10 inches in the Manchester area in the Jan cold spell) and it made it worse that on ocassions I could see the shower trains 15 miles to the north!! Last night eased that bitterness somewhat

Just north of the Midlands here in Crewe in South Cheshire. Woke up at 7am to around 4 inches of level snow on the grass and 3-4 inches elsewhere. Took a walk to the shop earlier and the snow was round my ankles in places. Best fall of snow this winter and i'm thoroughly happy that AT LAST I have seen a decent fall of snow this winter. Thawing rapidly now in the sun though.

Woke up at around 7am this morning to find 3-4 inches of level snow on the grass and maybe 2-3 inches elsewhere. Beautiful scene with snow even blanketing the trees. I took a walk to get some bread and in some places the snow was around my ankles. Best snowfall of this winter for here although it is melting fast now Can believe that Codge. Heard some people saying that Buxton was cut off at the garage when I went to get some bread this morning. Was not expecting the scene I woke up to this morning I must admit. Can't remember the last time I had snow up to my ankles here, didn't even get that in the new year cold spell Aaron

Just checked the traffic cams; snowing 12 miles up the motorway at junction 18 of the M6 but zilch here

Yeah, I agree. There is a lot of potential in the charts for next week but we need to see the westwards shift of the trough brought to a halt in the models. As things stand lowland snowfall is possible from Birmingham northwards. If the trough heads further west, things wont be so pretty

Looks good for snow at low levels in the north and west as this is where the more favourable dewpoints and upper air temps will be. I would imagine any heavy precipitation will bring some quite heavy snow Shropshire northwards on current charts. Obviously, any altitude will see you better off.

Yes Nick, annoying isn't it. Just checked the 6z control run on meteociel- not too bad for up here at all. I'd take Midlands northwards snow events next week

Yep the trend for next week is worrying; it could have been a snowfest if the trough wasn't projected so far west. As for FI charts, I highlighted the possibility of the retrogression idea going wrong and got told I was too negative....nah it's called common sense and realism

I totally agree, top post there. I find it amusing that when a mild breakdown to the cold is shown at 168 hours it's all 'oh well best not look beyond 96hrs as this is FI ATM' yet when cold charts featuring retrogression at 192 hours+ people are more willing to take it as gospel. The models don't work like that i'm afraid.

Eugene, I am not negative, I am just a realist and I am merely highlighting what may go wrong with the retrogression which is in FI. The ECM is not as good a run in the relaible as the UKMO or the GFS and I don't think may people can argue with that. Face it, the ECM is more likely to occur in the reliable time frame as was shown last night when the super dream charts of the UKMO and GFS were brought to a halt in their later outputs with the HP coming further south and that's how it stands now. If they follow the ECM again, the HP will be even further south than they show it ATM. IF that happens, who says they will follow the idea of the ECM and its retrogression.....and that's what we would be relying on to see a COUNTRYWIDE wintry spell. Also I was actually rather optimistic WRT the last cold spell and defended the GFS over the woeful ECM. I just call it how I see it and try not to get caught up in sentiment and heartful wishes unlike some who have their fingers burnt time and time again. I don't think the weather bases itself on what people want to see

With regard to specifics, it is daft to look past 144 hours. GFS ensembles are a different story and although they can be just as unrelaible, they can often pick trends out. The ECM 12z is just one run and that is what I was referring to. so no, no contradiction.