Cheshire Freeze

In analysis of the current state of things what is your opinion on the upcoming winter Blast, and how do you think the la Nina will affect things? Until recently i was convinced of a cold winter a la last winter but with some of the experts of the forum now saying the opposite I am less sure. Aaron

Yes I hold this view too. I think there may be a powerful jet but I have a feeling it may end up directing Atlantic storms to the south. For me, January will be a month of cold zonality with frequent deep snowfalls to high ground and lower levels at times or the lows will be pushed far enough south for entrenched cold to manifest itself once again. Aaron

No blowtorch January for me, just can't see it. I have a feeling that the atmosphere may have a few surprises for us which may not be trademark of a typical strong la nina pattern for northwest Europe. ↲GP could you clarify the mentioned bit in bold as if there is a cold stratosphere and strong polar vortex then surely the cold will have real problems being displaced to mid latitudes?↲I'm a bit of a novice but the feeling i'm getting is that we may have a stab at a negative CET monthly return this year.↲Many thanks

Bar the last couple of weeks, where we have experienced some torrential convective downpours, summer has just been plain boringness with a perpetual lack of anything interesting......then again so was spring! Endless days of no rain, identical weather conditions day afrer day means that a score of 4 from me; and that's only due to the past two weeks which I have quite enjoyed radar watching! Being a weather enthusiast means I like a bit of severe weather to get my teeth into !! Aaron

I think that is the grass minimum you are reading :lol:

A very real chance of the first sub zero monthly CET return for a long time this coming winter I feel. The La Nina will either lock us into a very mild or bitterly cold season in my opinion. Really depends on how the jet stream decides to play it. Must say, I am leaning towards the thoughts of BFTP at the moment. The link that was missing last winter was due to the hesitancy of the Greenland and Iceland high pressure cells to merge with a true Arctic high; which would have effectively given us a negative CET month in January and February was tantalisingly close to something memorable but it just never got there. Can we hit the bullseye this year? Time will tell. Aaron

Best of the instability slipping south and east of here now; done for the day methinks. Still, had some very impressive rain, everyone in the Midlands southwards have fun and take care, some of the cells are vicious! Aaron

Don't think we need the rain here anymore! A very wet couple of weeks and I would estimate about 2 inches of rain has fallen today alone! We are still on a hosepipe ban though! Aaron

Don't be fooled by the shading of the colours on the radar either- showing yellow and pink here but believe me, the intensity of the rain is astonishing, the rain drops are huge Aaron

Just had another crazily intense downpour here in Crewe. Stupid amounts of surface water about now and would imagine there are some localised flooding problems in the area. Strangely no thunder heard though. Aaron

The rain just woke me up. I'm not joking, that was some of the heaviest rain i've ever seen, ever. That intensity has only been surpassed on a couple of occasions. Aaron

Small cell grown to the north of Shrewsbury just now

Yes looks dead on its feet here for tomorrow, just too far north and the best shot at some downpours looks to be before dinner time. Looks to be one of those frustrating days where I watch showers form just to the south of here then move away. Aaron

What's left of it looks likely to yeah

Showers now losing intensity on the radar, I think there will be a lull now for a few hours but the forecast is for shower activity to increase in the early hours. Severe weather warning out until 8 o'clock for Northwest England. Would be interesting to hear what Nick F thinks will happen during the night in the warning regions. Aaron What area of Crewe are you from mate? Rain started here quite a bit before you it seems (Sydney area)

Best of it is moving to our east

yep, just heard a rumble from that beast

Pretty much sums up my thoughts that As for thoughts of Autumn, get July out of the way and I think the lessening of daylight becomes really noticeable; also the trees do start looking a little bit tired the further into August you go i.e the leaves begin to look very dull.

A blocked winter being favoured at present then?

Ah well looks like game over today here then. Didn't do well last night either; I heard some very distant rumbles of thunder and one faint flash of lightning. However, did get a glimpse of some high based lightning from the cells over in the Midlands- strange to think those storms were miles away. Aaron

Why have the cells on the northern edge of the cells that have left Wales weakened so much? Seems to have coincided with a shift in direction of the cells. Aaron

Was hoping that they would drift a little further north, looking like we may miss them here

I feel the same Eugene. Just posted over on TWO a response to the article in the Daily Mail which talks about how we are going to experience a long hot summer hitting temps of 38.5C. I think we'll struggle to push 32C TBH. September likely to be a wet month by my reckoning. Aaron

lol 24-26C a heatwave?! I think the perishing cold this winter must have lowered our thresholds! Temperatures will peak about 22-23C for the majority I reckon, but it will feel very pleasant granted. Aaron

Yes a few warm days coming up I fancy. I think this will be a recurring theme running throughout summer- a few warm days then predominantly cool and fairly damp. I don't forsee any severe wet spells but I think that it will essentially be average if not a touch below in terms of temperatures. That being said, the models do look pleasant for the second half of this coming week. Don't discount the threat of some localised ground frosts in June though. Winter 2010-2011 will be one to remember I fancy. Aaron