Cheshire Freeze

Hi Ian, reading through the thread it's good to see someone with some inside information on the case of this potentially nasty event. Although we wont get anything overnight up here, what are your current thoughts on thunderstorm chances tomorrow pm? GFS seems to suggest more precipitation around than the BBC graphics and the NAE seems to support the GFS too.

Glad to hear the hosepipe ban has been lifted and areas that needed the rain are now finally getting it. I think the main problem was (aswell as a shortage of actual precipitation) that when it hit May, the sun had reached a position that meant in any prolonged sunny breaks, water on the surface was easily evaporated, meaning the already slightly below par reservoirs were sitting ducks at mercy of the sun's ability to evaporate as it neared the solstice. This shouldn't be so much of a problem now as we are 2 months past the solstice so any rain that falls into reservoirs now shouldn't be as prone to the sun's heating effects.

Anyone around the Northampton or Tamworth areas? Looks like these two places are getting hammered at the minute.

Derby looking a bit too far north at the minute. There seems to be a line of convective activity to the south, anything north of this is just moderate rain at best judging by the radar Looking very interesting down your way Steve, that's a huge amount of water to fall in that short amount of time!

Just too far south yesterday and too far north today. The frontal wave passed south overnight, with the renewed energy hitting too far south today for us to benefit; wrong place, wrong time. Nice line of convective precipitation stretching from the Bristol Channel to the Wash right now.

We wont catch anything from the Midlands as the predominant flow is becoming more west to east. Chance of some light rain starting within the next 15 mins or so but nothing of note storm wise i'm afraid. EDIT. Light rain now falling

Haha, it's only weather :lol: anyhoo, I had a feeling that some may be left feeling disappointed today....Estofex had the whole of the UK under a level 1 yesterday and that was hardly warranted was it..... In my opinion, the best stormy weather seems to occur when it has not been forecast and isn't really expected to be as severe as what actually happens in reality.

One thing of note, it is no where near as humid feeling today here as the humidity is down on yesterday.

some surprise rain here. On the northwestern extent to that blob of rain moving around the northwest midlands atm

nope nothing of note here, just a heavyish shower around 4pm. Looks like we may well miss out tomorrow aswell.

Some very intense radar returns north east of Manchester, looks like a right deluge under that.

Yeah, don't quite see how the whole of the UK warranted a level 1 warning from Estofex today :s nothing doing round these here parts certainly. Met Office seemed mostly spot on the money

His reaction when he realises he is live on air is absolutely priceless! Gotta love him

I wouldn't take too much notice, there is more chance of me winning the Euro Millions than widespread lowland snow in September. I just hope that when they say 'cooling jet stream' they don't actually mean the jet stream is getting colder LOL, surely they couldn't be that ignorant.

There shall be nothing of note up here now, the increasing heights are descending from the north as the low pressure spins away southwards.

No worries mate Doesn't sound like a bad idea that! Fingers crossed for some decent storms in the next week eh Aaron

You are wasting your time I think, it's curtains for around here. Meto/NAE seem to have been the more accurate models for forecasting today. The GFS suggested storms as far north as south Yorkshire

http://images-of-crewe.blogspot.com/2007/08/electricity-street-downpour.html That was the worst storm i've ever witnessed.....bar none. Came out of no-where, developed overhead and lasted a fair while. You remember it? Was strange really as it wasn't a day for widespread storms.....just a freak event i guess.

I feel sorry for this area, too far west for the thunderstorms that hit Manchester on Thursday, too far north for any action today.... reminds me of winter when it snows in every direction within a 20 mile radius of here but it never quite makes it to Crewe properly; a bit like that itch that you can never get to on your back, despite what angle you attack it from! I think we should move the town to nestle on top of the pennines

Not expecting much up here today, though I have been spoilt for storms in the last couple of days- I was fortunate enough to be directly under that train of thunderstorms in the Manchester area on Thursday and what a show that was! Let me tell you, some of that rain intensity was out of this world!

Go on GP give us an early punt at the DEC, JAN and FEB CET returns, in terms of the trend, I think being specific would be a bit too much of an ask for anyone this far out :lol: Anyway, thanks for your continued knowledgeable input SB, GP et al, makes for enjoyable reading trying to fathom what the forthcoming winter may bring!

Exactly, there was little in the way of severe cold last November. It's very rare to get cold persisting through autumn and all winter- the pattern often changes midway through. 1962-63 was a very special, somewhat unique event.

Ever heard of the saying 'Ice in November, enough to bear a duck, the rest of winter is slush and muck' ? Ok bad example then as regards the autumn of 1962, but as far as I see it there is a relationship between the general synoptics of the preceding autumn and the winter that follows, as you have stated above. I always took it to believe that a warm dry October was often a good indicator of what the forthcoming winter may herald.

Well there are some people that say a warm, dry October is the precursor to a cold winter. Infact, some of the coldest winters have historically occurred after mild autumns- last year is an example aswell as the autumn of '62. On a personal level, i'm hoping that this coming autumn is not cold as true cold winters appear to come suddenly starting in either December or early January- not before. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120091119.gif - an example from November last year http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1962/Rrea00119621101.gif - 1962 and the warm october..... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00220091014.gif - 2009 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1962/Rrea00219621023.gif - 1962 Yes, cherry picking at it's finest but i'm just illustrating a point

It all depends in what context the word is being used in. In once sense if you have a set of data which is to be plotted on a graph (x and y variables) and a distinct trend is spotted when a line of best fit is applied, but one value is a fair distance from this line then that is classed as an anomoly because it does not follow the overall 'trend'. In another sense, if there is a set 'average' figure i.e a monthly CET average then any deviation from that figure is an anomoly which will either be a positive or negative number. Hope this helps Aaron