Cheshire Freeze

Very jealous, that thing looks intense!

lol I know how you feel, I'd be happy just seeing some rain

lol it can't be that bad, does well in winter and is far enough east in summer to catch the paths of MCSs. Here on the other hand......the less said the better as it has no redeeming features come summer or winter. Skies at the moment are as flat as a pancake.

Aye, looking grim now this side of the Pennines. To be honest nothing was expected to happen here today anyway so can't grumble

Nothing seems to be coming of it here, the atmosphere just isn't right in this neck of the woods. I fancy parts of Derbyshire and north and east of there seeing some action in a little bit though.

I can see some towering to the west, nothing at all over your way?

The eastern half of the country looks like it's about to explode. Something developing E-W border too judging by the sat pics

Yeah can see that quite clearly on the sattelite imagery, seems to be curling down into the Midlands, not too far east of here too.

If you can't say anything that will bring storms to Crewe, don't say anything at all

If it does make a difference and Stoke gets a thunderstorm I shall not be impressed though I shoudn't be surprised it's happened before! Even if there was a solid wall of thunderstorm approaching which was 40 miles long and 10 miles wide, we'd still go through the gap with the weakest precip lol

lol the western extent of the 'main risk zone' is 15 miles to the east of here over Stoke on Trent Baaaaahhhh humbug

Don't think the shower in question actually hit Stoke, looks like it hit somewhere between Stoke and Uttoxeter

Latest invent has caught my eye for tomorrow on frames 4pm and 7pm.....must be a mistake surely as the action is anticipated towards the southeast?

Got more chance of seeing Batman's cape here than any cape of meteorological sense.

Same old story every time, I can't remember the last time I even heard distant thunder let alone experience a storm. Funnily enough I think we had more thunder last year up until this point than we have had this year; that really is saying something because last year was dire for storms too.

Not seen any interesting weather here for months and months; just the same old boring crud that has persistently occurred day after day. The latest model outputs don't offer much change either with the GFS finally downplaying that low for the weekend. I'd rather have witnessed another 2007 over this dross.

ohhhhhhh dear, I feared as much.

I'm waiting for the 12 NAE to come out, no sign of it yet. It wasn't really keen on convective potential tomorrow on the 6z update, things seem to be going the way of the pear already. Up until a couple of days ago this was looking like being a very plumetastic and interesting week.

I agree it has been a poor summer for storms in this area too, thus far.

I have been caught out myself by the old wheelie bin 'false rumble' GFS seems to be downplaying the risk on Weds now for heavy showers and thunderstorms, instead it's looking like an OK day. Tomorrow I'm not convinced about either, the 12z GFS seems to have shunted potential to the east as opposed to earlier runs which leaves Wales looking exempt from t-storm activity and other western areas of England on shaky ground as to whether they see anything.

Looks like quite a sharp burst around the Wrexham area at the moment, surprised a rumble hasn't been heard.

I notice Mr Keeling's forecast was put up 11 days ago, the other one today; what is clear is that the CFS precip charts seem to have flipped in that timeframe, now suggesting drier than average winter months than was the case a week and a half ago. Just goes to show at this point and timeframe it is about looking at trends in these long range models and not just concocting a 'thoughts' section based on a quick peruse of the current charts. Here are the pressure anomoly forecast charts which are using the latest data (note the initial conditions date towards the top). As you can see, November and December 'currently' looked blocked and appear to be becoming increasingly so as these charts have updated over the past few days. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/glbz700Mon.gif He writes forecasts for Weatheronline

Yep, noticed this trend myself; a constant signal for a block either out in the Atlantic or a bit further north towards Greenland. The beginning of August has the potential to be quite unsettled IMO. Before that though, there should be some pleasantly dry and warm weather to be had which should enable people to fire up those barbeques without having to dodge the showers.

Late July settle down of the weather looks plausible to me as the ridge asserts itself for possibly upto a week. After that it's down the pan again in my eyes, with the METO further outlook concurring with this as things stand. The beginning of August could be quite wet again in my opinion. We should at least have some fine, warm and dry days before that though.

Sorry you have suffered. A similar thing happened here 2007. A totally out of the blue storm towards the end of the day. Was so so spectacular though! Will never forget it. Here is the link to the blog on it...... http://images-of-cre...t-downpour.html http://images-of-cre...h-flooding.html I heard the fire brigade had to be called out to several places, mostly flooded houses I think.