Cheshire Freeze

Not a very inspiring winter prognosis there by Stewart. Anticyclonic cold is certainly not my cup of tea as even though it may be cold at ground level, upper air temps are not cold enough to support snow. What would be better is if the trough to the east could position itself slightly further west with the block in the Atlantic situated slightly further north and west. This would introduce some colder uppers and provide the instability for snow to fall. I do think the period from the middle of December to the middle of January will be the coldest of the winter.

I'll vouch for that, pathetic amounts fell here, considering how much some parts of the region had!

Yep saw a bit of flooding round here earlier John, this did catch me by surprise as it was forecast to be well southeast of here. Just before bed last night I did wonder whether a shift in the path of the system had occured as the radar was showing some very bright returns down to the southwest which didn't really tally with any of the forecast maps- i.e the rain was showing up much earlier and further west than forecast.

Ground is absolutely saturated round these here parts after this morning's deluge. Torrential rain for a time that wasn't even forecast this far west. Local brook is at its bankfull limit and there is some flooding issues on local roads. No idea of totals but I would estimate getting on for two inches once Friday's rain is accounted for.

Fair enough you have provided some factors which lead you to call for the winter to be mild, but there are other factors that suggest the opposite. Also, may I suggest that it is not factors taken in isolation that create weather conditions, it is the interaction of these factors and how they manifest themselves that dictate synoptic situations around the world. A strong hurricane season and a strong jet stream for example are not drivers of a mild winter IMO, they are if anything a consequence of the La Nina that you mention and its interaction with the wider atmospheric system on a global scale. A strong jet stream could lead to a huge amount of snow in the UK if the jet stream is deflected south as it has been quite consistently recently. Moreover, as an aside, the projected strengthening jet over the next two weeks is to be expected as the temperature gradient between cold air forming towards the pole and relatively warm Atlantic SSTs sharpens. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif........... these charts suggest a high pressure anomaly to the west/northwest of the UK during the winter months which would suggest blocking in the mid Atlantic, around Iceland and southern Greenland which *if* occured would translate to an increased liklihood of north and northeasterly winds over the UK. I agree, it's all speculation at the minute but everyone has the right to post their thoughts whether it be extreme cold, average or mild that they believe will signify the upcoming winter.

Yeah, a decent, entrenched cold pool is needed over to the east of the UK with -25/-30 uppers so when the correct synoptics fall into place, bingo, there is some deep cold to tap into

I remember that well, you have no idea how frustrating that was! As you say, the winds weren't quite northwesterly enough to blow the showers this far south and instead, places a mere 15-20 miles north of here got pasted. I remember my other half driving down to here from Stockport and she had what looked like a foot of snow still anchored to the roof of her car.......suffice to say I was a tad jealous! All we mustered was about 2 inches at most.What made it more annoying was the fact I could clearly see the snow shower trains consistently blowing across to the north! See my post above

I don't think so as this forecast mentions the rain for later on in the night separately. This is courtesy of the Met Office: Headline: Scattered heavy showers lasting into the night. This Evening and Tonight: Showers will become heavier with a risk of thunder this evening. Some spots will have considerable amounts of rain. Later in the night the rain will ease, before it becomes wet again towards morning. Minimum temperature 10 °C

Metoffice local forecasts seem to be going for these storms and heavy showers to keep going well into the night. The local Midlands overnight forecast mentions considerable amounts of rain possible.

Almighty thunderstorm just gone through Stockport, Manchester. Torrential rain and frequent lightning. Caught some lightning on my HD video phone as the cell passed.

They could be right..... then again looking at the chart it suggests 90% of Europe more likely to have an above average winter and I bet if we could see the temperature forecast for the whole of the northern hemisphere it would probably show something similar. I'm not getting dragged into the whole METO warm bias debate but to me, having seen their forecasts for years prior to this one, it seems they seldom predict colder than the norm and if they can fail to spot such a winter as the one just gone I don't hold out much hope for any projected forecast. Furthermore, last year the model didn't even just sit on the fence and produce no clear signal, it showed above average- the exact OPPOSITE of what materialised with Europe having one of its coldest winters in years. Then again, doesn't mean it won't be right this year

Endless showers packing in here since early evening on the northwesterly breeze. Current temp: 10.1C

Preliminary Winter Thoughts 2010/2011 Here are my preliminary thoughts on the upcoming winter as I promised last month. Factors affecting weather forecast from the period 01.12.2010- 28.02.2011 are as follows: State of the NAOThe current La NinaQBOContinued low solar activityCurrent North Atlantic Sea Surface TemperaturesPotential SSW eventsLooking at the current long range model output for the period in question sheds little certainty on what the likely winter patterns will be; however at present there is a consistent signal for the winter to open on a below average note in terms of temperatures. This can be misleading however as the below average temperatures could quite easily be as a result of the models picking up on an inversion 'faux cold' scenario a la December 2008, with high pressure sat across the country. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif This link shows the likely pressure distributions over the coming months, though I must stress this is just one model. December and January show blocking centred around or just south and east of Greenland which is a good sign if you are looking for snow and cold weather to dominate. However, given the lack of detail this far out it is impossible to say whether a block over Greenland would result in a west based or east based -NAO. By February, the block has slipped to lie across the UK which pretty much backs up the thoughts of Stuart (Glacier Point) If that pressure distribution was to unfold for Feb as seen there, a rex block of some description would probably prevail with settled, dry and cold weather in the south and milder Atlantic weather dominating further north into Scotland and Northern Ireland. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html The link above illustrates the current state of the La Nina fairly well. It has been mooted that a strong La Nina can prohibit the chances of a cold winter; however, the way I am seeing things at the moment is that things are a little bit different this time round. As BFTP (Fred) has stated, we appear have entered the dominant La Nina juncture of the perturbation cycle which hasn't showed its hand for around half a century until recently. Southward Shift of the JetstreamSince the woeful summer of 2007, the jetstream has been behaving strangely and has presented us with its tendency to migrate further south than has been the case pre 2007. Also showing a tendency to amplify and 'buckle' in places bringing unusual synoptics to some areas (European winter 2009/2010, Russian heatwave, Pakistani floods as obvious examples). This southward shift enables to PF to push further south than might usually be the case and increasing the risk of cold to affect more areas. December 2010 Characterised by frequency of North to Northeasterly air masses. Strong jet stream forcing depressions to undercut blocking around the Greenland area. Northern Ireland and Scotland often dry but cold- lowest average temperatures for the month. England and Wales are likely to be cold and wet, especially the further southwest you are situated- repeated milder interludes may proceed bands of sleet and snow with the middle part of the country experiencing the greatest instances of snow falling. CET estimate: 3.5-4.5c BELOW AVERAGE January 2011 A month of two halves. A disturbed and cold first half of the month beckons I feel, High pressure centred to the northwest maintains a cold feed but low pressure encroaches from the south at the same time. In between, often frosty and ocassionally very wintry with snow showers and some longer outbreaks of snow towards north east facing coasts especially. Second half of the month sees things warm up a bit as a tropical maritime airmass encroaches to bring spells of rain and only hill snow to most areas. CET estimate: 3.2-4.2c AVERAGE TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE February 2011 After a spell of unsettled weather to finish off January, February is an uncertain month. At the moment I am going for a settling down of the weather, high pressure centred across south east Britain and the Low Countries ensures cold and frosty weather at night but pleasant by day. For Northern Ireland and Scotland, a mild, cloudy Atlantic feed is likely to bring a dull month but also milder temperatures. CET estimate: AVERAGE

What amazing charts they are, that is some decent cold pool there!

I was thinking that too Blizzards Can't even remember the last time I even heard a rumble of thunder here.

Sweltering at a stuffy 25C in my little bedroom at the minute. I daren't open the window because everytime I do, a massive spider crawls into my room which I spot an hour later!

I agree. I think we are in 'unknown' territory at the moment and I believe that what 'should' happen given the various teleconnections as suggested by GP and Chinomaniac et al, may not materialise at all. As you say there does seem to have been a general southwards shift of the jet stream and this is playing havoc with the theories on what 'should' happen and is producing some classic synoptics. At this point I would bank a cold November and December and keep touching wood that January and February can produce some cold and interesting weather also.

Glad to see this back up and running again. In terms of the coming winter, I have seen no clear consensus as of yet to help make a decision either way, in terms of what the common theme throughout the winter will be. GP hinting at a cold Nov and December period with a sinking mid Atlantic high later into Jan and Feb BFTP hinting that if the pattern gets locked and the jet stream remains far enough south then the high may not sink as suggested Berometer seemingly advocating record mild courtesy of the 'census forecast' All pie in the sky at the moment but the drama will undoubtedly unfold over the coming weeks.

Yeah Woodford does record low temperatures but as for early Jan, a few places around Cheshire fell to around -15 to -18 unoficially on that one evening; it was perishingly cold and you had to be here to appreciate it. I heard some unofficial reports of -15 around the Nantwich area and I can well believe it. As for tonight, I wonder if anywhere will manage the air frost.

Just had an almighty downpour here, no thunder though. You about SnowGo?

wish i had some weather to take photos of! Got 8MP and HD video capture on my phone yet there's nothing weatherwise to use it on! Keep missing the action here

That really is shocking! Look how it just skirts around

I'll tell you what really depressed me.....6th Jan 2010. Continuous snow showers fed in one after the other about 15 miles north of us.....this gave parts of Manchester a foot of snow. We missed the shower trains blowing in off the Irish Sea and ended up with about 2 inches in total. VERY annoying. Also I have noticed that storms seems to develop all around us but never actually affect here!

Yeah, typically a band of weather pushed through here, nothing remotely electrical, only to strengthen 15-20 miles up the road haha

I'd pretty much agree with that Gavin