Cheshire Freeze

Yes it crept up quietly but once it arrived it went with a bang. The core of the storm seemed to pass about a mile south of here (over the southern end of Crewe), saw some pics on facebook from friends that showed just how much hail this thing deposited- quite impressive as it looked like snow. All in all quite pleased with today convective wise.

Just had a nice thundery downpour here, fairly active in terms of electrics and dropped quite a bit of large hail too.

LOL that's exactly what has been happening here all week. Not good is it.

Same old story here again today. Always manage to fit through the dry slot, gets frustrating after a while.

Cheshire storm tracking along the M56 it seems.

Beautiful little cell kicked off towards northwest Cheshire looking at the netweather radar. The cells today seem to be more reliant on insolation than earlier on in the week....probably due to the slack, relatively cold airmass in place.

Well we seem to be doing a fine job of missing any precipitation at all here. Wednesday was a very frustrating day; missed a torrential thunderstorm by about 3 miles to the south east firstly. An hour or so later we missed another storm about 5 miles to the north. Then I travelled on the train to Stockport......when I'd got there they had just had an almighty storm with quite deep flooding on the roads. Wasn't my day for witnessing a storm!

Aaaahhhh there is something majestic about the landscape blanketed in snow; it's so so wonderful. Even though the last couple of winters have had bitingly cold periods, they have lacked consistency in the cold that such years as 62/63 etc bought with them. Also, although the minima and day maximas have been impressive at times during the last two seasons, snowfall in this particular location has been mediocre to say the least. In the 09/10 season we were twenty miles too far south for the streamer that gave 20cm to Manchester and in the winter season just gone it was Lincolnshire and the north east that really copped it. Our maximum snow depth over the last two years in Crewe has been about 5-7cm. I remember 1995? I was 7 at the time but can remember vividly inches and inches of the white stuff falling in one particular blizzard, so bad I can remember my dad ending up with the car in a hedge down a B road. As for the upcoming winter, I don't really have any cast iron inklings at the minute. I suspect the NAO will average out weakly negative. I think precipitation amounts will be higher than last winter and I have the slightest feeling that channel low undercutters may feature prevelently. A long way to go yet though, albeit in my opinion, potentially a snowy if not quite as numbingly cold winter.

I suspect the answer is fairly straightforward.......there was an onshore breeze during most of the afternoon; this probably localised to the costal extremities. From around 4 o'clock the wind turned offshore (light easterly) and helped push the temperature up. Remember a mile or so inland the temperature would have been much warmer than it was at the coastal site of Crosby during the early afternoon.

Frozen to death?! what sausages have you been eating that are still alive? As for the coming winter.....I don't have a clue at this range; best to keep an eye on these amongst other indicators http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif

Thursday June 9th at aproximately 7.58 am, though this may be interrupted by a cumulus congestus at 1.19 pm. I jest I jest

For anyone interested here is the link for the latest CFS temp anomolys up until November..... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif Hints as far as autumn go that there is no firm trend in terms of temperatures; however large cold anomoly building to the east during November with higher than average temperatures over Greenland. Quite similar to what it was showing last year if I remember correctly. About as useful as a chocolate fireguard at this moment probably, but worth keeping an eye on.

Yes I think a wet autumn is a given to be honest. Though this may prove a relief after the summer!

A bold call. Obviously GP is confident about the teleconnections as there is no middle ground or fence sitting in this forecast. Best of luck with the forecast; maybe it will come off and maybe it won't, only time will tell on this one. Though at the moment the signs are certainly there for a warm summer. I also agree that I think that the peak of the summer weather will be pre August; I can see it going downhill quickly after that.

Roads were like rivers just up the road in Crewe mate. Haven't seen rain that intense for a while. Looks like next weekend is the next opportunity.....but being 7 days out it is likely to change.

Well judging by latest model runs the next week looks very monotonous once again with little convective threat. Even though I experienced some amazing convective weather yesterday, all it served to do was whet my appetite for the convective stuff......something that looks to be lacking over the next week!

We are not in the best place unfortunately. CAPE values diminishing to almost 0 as the afternoon wears on.......that more northern cell over Powys just disintegrated which highlights the unfavourable conditions it experienced as it tracked north.

Cells starting to fire over Powys. Best CAPE not found here though I suspect they are building as they encounter higher temps as they drift their way north and east.

Not much of a chance round these here parts today I'm afraid......best of the instability reserved for counties east of here as the moist tongue of air is advected infront of the cold front. With winds now from a northwest direction, it gives little scope for anything to develop over land and push across. Parts West Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and east Mids look good to me.

Well it certainly kicked off round here mate, wasn't expecting the intensity we got

Well what a cracking show we had here!!! Just got in from work. It absolutely thrashed it down with frequent lightning and booming thunder. In terms of rainfall......wow, it must have thrashed it down for in excess of an hour; customers saying roads were becoming impassable in places. What a day.

Extremely anxious? You'd best stay away from storm chasing then, you'd hyperventilate

Yes it does look interesting mate. Fingers crossed that we can catch a storm and a bit of rainfall too. I'm working Friday otherwise I'd have asked you to come and pick me up

Well the GFS is showing the precip to the east of here over the Pennines and to the west over Wales during Friday due to orographic enhancement. What leads you to think that Crewe has a good chance? If I was a betting man I'd say you would be best around Buxton, Macclesfield, east Manchester areas

Tomorrow's potential not being downgraded on the 12z run of the GFS like the other days have been. Infact if anything CAPE is marginally increased with precip shown breaking out around oragraphically enhanced regions i.e Wales and the Pennines.