Cheshire Freeze

That really is a monster high at 240 on the ECM- a thing of beauty. Look at the high coming out of Newfoundland aswell........... Some of the more knowledeable members on here will realise its significance. Only one way that chart is going and warmth it aint Aaron

Yes Karl, as I said the block is going nowhere fast. Start looking for signs of migration into Greenland in the 180-240 range over the next couple of days. That's where my money is at the moment. The cold looking very prolonged still. Aaron

Yes when the breakdown before Christmas showed, the models were initially very keen to take us back to full on Atlantic driven weather AND so were ensembles. Look what happened...... Not saying that it will work that way this time, but there has to be a very strong case for it Aaron

Saw that. Stressed it was only subtle signs, sounded very uncertain to me and as if in the back of his mind he knew that it could very easily go the other way too Aaron

7-10 days time will see PV disruption, trouble is at the moment the PV is too close to Greenland and is fairly strong, meaning that the only way that the cold spell can continue is through the blocking being centred to our northeast. IF the block stays in place for long enough and retains enough strength, once the PV moves or weakens, pressure is likely to rise over Greenland again. That is why it is important that we see the models continue to extend this cold period with the block to the northeast. IF the PV plays ball and we get the block to hold long enough, you can bank on the next round to be just as severe as the one are encountering now, maybe even more disruptive. That's all pie in the sky at the moment though. Watch the models extend the cold spell over the next few days. No mild spell for at least 2 weeks; that's my take on proceedings anyway. Aaron

10-14 days...... period to watch IMO. Renewed attempt at retrogression to Greenland. GFS has touched on this scenario now a few times post 240 hrs over the last few runs. If it appears on the ECM 240 hrs chart over the next few days I will start to invest more certainty into thsi outcome. GFS MAY have picked up an emerging trend. Aaron

The thing that is stopping the retrogression from occuring is the Polar vortex reorganising itself and intensifying. This has the effect of tightening gradients and pulling the jet further north. We need the PV to be weaker or disorganise itself before we can think of retrogression IMO. This could still happen, but the way I see it at the moment is 40/60 favouring an Atlantic skirmish; maybe 50/50 if i'm feeling generous.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.png For all the cold lovers out there, look at this chart at your peril, you may be scarred for life! Aaron

snowing very lightly here now

Interestingly, the GFS control run tries to retrogress the high, but never really strengthens it http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-192.png?6

Think there is a minor trough forecast for tomorrow, nothing of note though Aaron

Think everyone is in bed but I can't tear myself away Aaron

I'm keeping a close eye on those showers, I think some of us may wake to another surprise snowfall Aaron

Well well, for all my moaning earlier, got a good few cm of snow here tonight to keep me company Aaron

Put it this way, if I was a betting man, my money would be on the ECM and UKMO Aaron

The only signs are from the GFS which i suspect greatly. UKMO and ECM have both been very consistent and I personally wouldn't back against them. Signs tonight of the GFS backing ever so slightly away from earlier, I would expect this to continue on the 18z if the ECM keeps its trend tonight Aaron

Lol I think we just about have enough to fill a small fimble here Aaron

Lol, nothing wants to know South Cheshire, always the same though Aaron

Yep, been the story so far. I can't begin to describe how gutted I am tbh. But, I don't want to put a downer on the thread and I think that some of the snowfalls experienced by people today have been immense Aaron

Snow melting rapidly now, mostly gone from roofs and the pavements Aaron

A big smile to all those that have had some considerable snow today- keep safe everyone. Just looking at the pic of central Liverpool.....you know it's bad when Liverpool has that much snow and you don't haha Seriously though, must be amazing for some people here on the forum to have that much snow. Aaron

Great to see you getting some snow at last Stephen! Aaron

Yeah, really has been poor, most of the snow from this morning has melted....here's what i woke up to and what led to local schools shutting......looks a silly decision now Aaron

Here are a few pics of the skant bit of snow we have in South Cheshire.... think they speak on behalf of me and louise in nearby Nantwich

The thing that helped you lot get the deep snow was the incessant showers before the frontal event, the winds weren't northerly enough to get them at an angle where they were affecting this far south in the region. Has been a similar story for the past couple of weeks. Very frustrating for me but good news for those further north Not too sure about Congleton and Sandbach, I expect Congleton may have done OK For me, this spell has been nowhere near as exceptional as 7/8th Feb 2007. That was a marginal situation but as that front from the south pushed up it brought snow so heavy that it literally shocked me. Ended up with about 6 inches before it melted away. I got starnded for 3 hours on a bus back from Stoke, will never forget it. The front never made it to Manchester Anyway, will try and upload some pics in a min to show how sparse the snow is here Aaron