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Cheshire Freeze

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Everything posted by Cheshire Freeze

  1. Cheshire Freeze
    Yeah think it was around the 20th December 2010 we had a decent overnight fall.
  2. Cheshire Freeze
    To be honest I was becoming increasingly perplexed by the stubbornness of the NWP in the face of favourable teleconnections. As you say, the gut is rarely wrong .
  3. Cheshire Freeze
    I know Stockport had a foot of snow. My gf at the time had a column of snow stuck to the roof of her car and it was a foot deep, no joke. I also saw pictures of the centre of Stockport and the snow was up to the benches.
  4. Cheshire Freeze
    With the amount of amplification upstream the 0z GFS could well go on to be a banger
  5. Cheshire Freeze
    GEM looks like the 18z GFS…so clear as mud again this morning!
  6. Cheshire Freeze
    There’s still so much play in the pattern. For example, that low could prompt a ridge ahead of it which would promote more of a slower moving N’ly (ala ICON).
  7. Cheshire Freeze
    Laughable differences from the 18z to the 0z GFS at 138hrs quite frankly.
  8. Cheshire Freeze
    Indeed An op run finally backing the GEFS
  9. Cheshire Freeze
    We can’t say that. We can’t say that because at the moment we’re in unusual territory where the strat vortex is being well displaced from it’s usual territory. On top of that we’ve got weather models that can’t even resolve the MJO properly. With the strat so weak, literally one bit of amplification in the right place at the right time could lock us into cold. This isn’t the usual winter scenario where we’ve got a strong strat coupled to the trop with endless strong westerlies above…
  10. Cheshire Freeze
    Yeah, it literally shows it in the chart that BA posted. I was just describing the EC46 not giving my own thoughts
  11. Cheshire Freeze
    Those charts change so often I really don’t pay much attention to them. Sometimes a dominating pattern isn’t picked up fully until fairly short lead times. The only thing we can say is that a +NAO isn’t heavily favoured into January at this current point in time.
  12. Cheshire Freeze
    We can only dream Kev. Even with a decent background set up we can’t seem to shake the Azores HP ridging into Spain and France these days. Almost certainly due to Hadley cell expansion and the changing climate. We’re seeing summers heat up due to it too. The thing that concerns me is that it’s happening so quickly now.
  13. Cheshire Freeze
    EC looks like GFS at 144 to me 168 chart will reveal more.
  14. Cheshire Freeze
    Uppers middle of Christmas Day-
  15. Cheshire Freeze
    Couldn’t ask for more tbh going into Christmas Day- control run
  16. Cheshire Freeze
    From memory I think Northwich is as far SE thundersnow has got from a NW’ly (from reports on here over the years).
  17. Cheshire Freeze
    Thundersnow is one thing I’ve never witnessed. Would love to.
  18. Cheshire Freeze
    Not yet
  19. Cheshire Freeze
    2004, remember it well. Day started off with horizontal sleet showers and ended with snow piling straight down with little wind. Ended up with 2 inches of snow here.
  20. Cheshire Freeze
    Nothing mate. However given the differences between the UKMO and GFS, this is one argument that could develop into something akin to two bald men arguing over a comb.
  21. Cheshire Freeze
    Looks fairly good in terms of strat too with that slow moving wave impacting against the HP out east.
  22. Cheshire Freeze
    Some decent thicknesses associated with that GFS northerly, temps struggling to around freezing on Christmas Day Entirely possible Mike. Though not looking probable at present for a full GH. I agree though, it’s a bit of an open goal. I’d say more towards the first week of Jan for proper GH chances.
  23. Cheshire Freeze
    It’s now a Nartlett North Atlantic Ridge-tlett
  24. Cheshire Freeze
    Cheers mate. Been hounded out of there a few times myself when I’ve delivered less positive summaries!
  25. Cheshire Freeze
    Yes and notice the North Atlantic ridging appearing…which is completely in line with expectation. Remember a few days ago when I said expect up stream amplification to increase as the NWP gets to grips with the situation? Well that’s what we’re beginning to see. Both the GEM and GFS have it this morning.
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