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Cheshire Freeze

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Everything posted by Cheshire Freeze

  1. Cheshire Freeze
    Pure filth from the GFS this morning. Still too far out to bank on, especially with disagreements between models over the polar regions.
  2. Cheshire Freeze
    You wouldn’t believe how valuable experience actually is when it comes to weather models. You can quickly see when things are going wrong after a while of doing this.
  3. Cheshire Freeze
    Well this wasn’t unexpected. It never seemed to be getting any closer and that’s never a good sign. Two GFS ensemble suites in a row downgrading is also not a good sign. I maintain that we needed that proper split of the SPV because relying on trop teleconnections is absolutely fraught with peril at mid-longer range.
  4. Cheshire Freeze
    Just a note, it’s perfectly plausible this goes west based because all winter the strat warming has been focussed towards Canada.
  5. Cheshire Freeze
    Is water wet?
  6. Cheshire Freeze
    The GFS saw a lack of latitude to the HP at D9/10 Most other models overamplified. No idea why people wheel out hemispheric verification stats when it’s the UK and Europe we’re interested in.
  7. Cheshire Freeze
    I agree, there’s a signal…but me and you have both been around on here long enough to know that signal can be snuffed out very quickly. I’m not interested until this is inside D5.
  8. Cheshire Freeze
    There’s a specific scenario that leads to an Azores HP becoming Scandi blocking…and it requires several aspects to line up and coincide pretty perfectly. That’s why classic E’lys are so rare.
  9. Cheshire Freeze
    Tbf Mike, not long ago we were looking at Icelandic HP this coming weekend…solid means too for this scenario. Now we’re looking at a UK HP. There’s absolutely no evidence that the same won’t happen for the next D10 chase. Even with solid background drivers we’re really struggling. We see this scenario play out year after year these days and people say they won’t be fooled next time and yet they always are.
  10. Cheshire Freeze
    To be fair to him, he has a point. Come T0 heights tick up slightly to our S and pressure lowers to our N. It’s a common occurrence within the modelling during winter. Just because heights look ok to our S at D10 it doesn’t mean they will be when D10 becomes D5.
  11. Cheshire Freeze
    Anyone else getting bored of these D10 chases? Nice to look at but ultimately at the mercy of sudden changes in the modelled atmospheric drivers which often lead to the whole lot collapsing before inside D6. I’m reserving judgement for now…this winter has so far promised lots but instead we’ve been rained on and blown about by the wind.
  12. Cheshire Freeze
    Surface flooding in places around here. Miserable.
  13. Cheshire Freeze
    Anybody got a canoe?
  14. Cheshire Freeze
    You watch winter happen in March…
  15. Cheshire Freeze
    Yes some of us have been around here long enough to know the script! A few weeks ago a SSW looked a cert. Hence I couldn’t see a way for the strat to gain the upper hand.
  16. Cheshire Freeze
    Next chance will be later Jan Though I’ve just checked the GFS strat output and I personally wouldn’t bank on that either with SPV sat over the pole.
  17. Cheshire Freeze
    The SSW was critical IMO but what do I know, others are saying that isn’t the case. IMO it would have aided a more -AO as it was happening just like the 2013 event did.
  18. Cheshire Freeze
    Saw the writing a few days ago personally. That’s why I’ve not bothered with much input on here.
  19. Cheshire Freeze
    Looking like later Jan to me now though if we miss the boat on this cycle. This is where a split SSW would have given us a safety net.
  20. Cheshire Freeze
    I don’t think a Greenland HP is the form horse tbh with you. A topple into Scandi is looking more likely than that…a UK HP even more likely than that
  21. Cheshire Freeze
    No worries. It’s a hotly debated point but obviously any westerly momentum in the strat in the middle of winter (where the strat/trop are most likely to be coupled) is not ideal, no matter how relatively weak. There have been changes in the modelling. Look at the NH set up. We’ve gone from initial tpv in tatters type charts to a healthy looking tpv atop some modest Atlantic amplification.
  22. Cheshire Freeze
    The issue being that where we were orginally seeing solidly -AO charts being churned out, we’re now seeing strengthening TPV. This is due to the failed reversal IMO. So we are seemingly reliant on Atlantic sector amplification…which really isn’t ideal to hang your hat on.
  23. Cheshire Freeze
    I’ve personally never put much stock in the ensembles. They can be as fickle as the op runs at times. Only takes one of the stragglers to have it nailed and the whole set will shift. Seen it too many times…
  24. Cheshire Freeze
    Looks like a split flow to me? Strong WAA there
  25. Cheshire Freeze
    The way that Iberian heights are lingering, there will be some anomalous heat building down that way come spring. Even with Greenland heights they still fester on the GFS control
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