Cheshire Freeze

I personally think we needed the SSW to grasp the mooted cold Jan. It’s a bit of a gut punch to be honest. We will get the vortex split eventually IMO but it’s looking likely later Jan now. Feb and March cold doesn’t really do it for me.

Too much vodka mate?

You’ll struggle to sustain lightning over land in December. Zero surface heating. Any lightning is usually associated with maritime influence so the further away from the sea it gets, the less likely lightning is.

Bugger all here. Too far S. Such a bland December with a seemingly constant wind.

We could get a notable reversal a bit later- possibly why March has been flagged up as being potentially very blocked by the seasonals.

Strong GEFS mean at that lead time. Impressive Time to get the big coats out soon.

Impressive back end of the GFS…

GFS is superb at D8 this morning

Cracking GFS run and completely in line with expectations too. As you say, locked in at that point with little pressure from zonal winds higher up. I must admit to having a little bemused over the past days at members who have been raising a glass to a mild winter…because all the signs point to cold. I can’t say much though because I do the same in summer when I just want it cool and the majority want heat!

Last day of work for me today then off until the 28th. Knackered but looking forward to a few days break. First Christmas Eve off in over a decade.

If you want a cold Jan-Mar then yes. Straight out of the ‘13 playbook

All looking very ‘12/‘13 to me. The way these wedges of weak heights being modelled are popping up in the mid range is reminiscent of what happened just prior to and during the strat warming that year. Even the potential warming date looks similar.

One big roar outside here. Things banging around. Usually happens at around 60mph.

Things banging around outside now

Howling out there

Meanwhile in GFS la la land the tpv really is hanging on by a tether

Hard to say. Gut says as shown on the 0z run there wouldn’t be enough advection up the left flank of the HP and the trough is a tad too close and not quite orientated correctly. However, this isn’t to say there hasn’t been a direction of travel spotted by the GEM and UKMO ops this morning.

UKMO raises an eyebrow

Hang on a moment, could be something here, might be nothing

I agree with you in respect to most years. However the atmosphere is genuinely ‘primed’ this year. I’d be the first one to pour cold water on prospects if it was merited…but it simply isn’t. Also there are a number in there who genuinely just don’t ‘get’ meteorology and a percentage of those will post as though they have a scooby. However, there are genuinely intellectual people in there too. Of course this is weather and the UK we’re talking about so there are never any guarantees over what will ultimately transpire.

Something stirring towards new year. GFS showing an emerging 4 wave pattern Beginning of the end of the spv?

It puts us in with a shout. A strong trough over Europe would be enough to overcome weak to moderate heights to our S anyway in most cases. It’s not showing above average heights to our S so that is a positive.

Upper air temperatures in the NH reach their lowest point on average during the last week of Jan. Thermal lag. The inverse occurs last week of July.

That’s as strong a signal for a Greenland block you’re likely to see on these charts in all honesty. Would be good to come to fruition in core winter.

That’s the control run mate