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Cheshire Freeze

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Everything posted by Cheshire Freeze

  1. Cheshire Freeze
    The point is we were staring down the barrel of an entrenched Euro HP a couple of days ago (if we took the modelling at face value)…which never ever looked plausible at all.
  2. Cheshire Freeze
    Mayday mayday, the tpv sending distress signals Looking even less healthy up top too
  3. Cheshire Freeze
    This is a beautiful synoptic to be in… Often we get cold but no precipitation. With this you get high risk but a potential high pay out. Just enough forcing to allow systems to head SE enough that it interacts with cold advection from the main cold trough.
  4. Cheshire Freeze
    This chart is really only a couple of tweaks away from the UK bring buried in snow just before Christmas
  5. Cheshire Freeze
    Well here we go…this time last night I said expect the trend to continue and here we are at 192 hrs-
  6. Cheshire Freeze
    Why shouldn’t it? It has been under attack for weeks and periods of VI (like now) aren’t uncommon before the thing collapses.
  7. Cheshire Freeze
    Well knock me down with a feather, it’s almost as if the GFS is starting to come to terms with the script. I don’t think the above sort of output will surprise a few of us on here.
  8. Cheshire Freeze
    Increasing confidence the UK will be under cold cyclonic conditions around Christmas. Snow chances for some I’d imagine. GEFS mean-
  9. Cheshire Freeze
    Also signs the strat could have a fork put in it by the time early-mid Jan comes around. A nice warming working around from the European side on this run- I don’t see the negativity that has marred this thread in the past few days tbh…and I’m the first person to chirp up if the outlook looks dire to me.
  10. Cheshire Freeze
    You can see even on the GEM that the TPV is draining away from the Canadian side with an amplified ridge in behind- Again, it’s likely had the run gone on that Christmas would show as cold and cyclonic for the UK
  11. Cheshire Freeze
    Momentum seems to be swinging the other way now after a few days of lull in terms of wintry output. As expected, the momentum is towards a movement of the TPV towards the Eurasian side of the hemisphere rather than the Canadian side around Christmas We’re beginning to see more and more amplification over the Canadian side over the last 24 hours of runs. Expect this to continue.
  12. Cheshire Freeze
    A cold one. Initially I had hoped we’d hang on to the early month cold via a proper Scandi HP and easterly, which would then be replaced by a cold N Europe trough. The cold N Europe trough is still on the menu though with the main vortex moving across Scandinavia. Looks fairly set to me given the dual hit of the earlier Canadian warming and increasing amplification upstream.
  13. Cheshire Freeze
    Almost like there’s been a lot of overreacting hysterics on here over the past few days… The scene for later December into Jan has been set for weeks.
  14. Cheshire Freeze
    If that’s true then it’s absolutely shocking. From a model that I’ve seen people claim has one of the best grasps on the stratosphere.
  15. Cheshire Freeze
    The EC46 waxes and wanes more than the moon. Seen enough from that particular model and its predecessors over the years to know just how fickle it can be. It was only a few short weeks ago it wasn’t even interested in the cold spell just gone. I’m keeping an open mind but I still believe we’re in for a wintry spell around Christmas. If we do get entrenched mild however, it’ll be a big coup for the CFS that has hone persistently euro high for winter since August.
  16. Cheshire Freeze
    Looks promising at D10 on the GFS 0z
  17. Cheshire Freeze
    Pressure anomaly for Christmas Eve on the 0z GFS- 18z GEFS ensemble mean-
  18. Cheshire Freeze
    Given the weight of evidence towards Christmas cold, I think for those of a betting nature, a flutter on a white Christmas might be a good shout this year…
  19. Cheshire Freeze
    Good continuity (for the lead time) now for something interesting leading up to Christmas Day
  20. Cheshire Freeze
    Anyway…on to the models. Been at work all day so not really taken stock of what’s been thrown out on the runs today. Though catching up with the thread at various points, it looks to me like we’re still on track for a cold Christmas week and beyond. UK HP is often a precursor ‘holding’ pattern which precedes a pattern change in winter.
  21. Cheshire Freeze
    The back end of the GFS runs will probably need to be followed now as they take us out to the next period of interest.
  22. Cheshire Freeze
    That’s some N’ly at the end of the GFS. A part of the trop vortex drops into Scandi…beautiful. Over the past few years it has been the other side of the pond seeing that! Air mass wouldn’t be too modified under and around that either. Severe cold if something like that occurred.
  23. Cheshire Freeze
    What a grim, grim spell of weather. 15mm for the day accumulated courtesy of steady light to moderate rain. @Dark Horseall the best to you mate.
  24. Cheshire Freeze
    This rain is incessant isn’t it… @Iceaxecrampon sorry for your loss mate.
  25. Cheshire Freeze
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