Cheshire Freeze

I said a couple of months back that if we saw anything of wintry note in December it’d be a bonus and that the winter would probably come in below average temperature wise if it transpired (as Nino winters tend to be back loaded). Even if this initial amplification fails to bring anything of a substantial wintry nature to our shores at this time, the foundations are still set for later in December. What we’re seeing in the modelling at present is pretty much perfect for HLB to establish in the coming weeks…it’s exactly what I look for as a pre cursor to cold. Even 09/10 didn’t feature the same prominence of wave breaking that we’re seeing modelled right now.

You’re making the mistake of looking too short term. The developments we’re seeing in the model output are the sort that could tee us up nicely going forward from mid December onwards. For an El Nino late autumn, this looks great at the moment.

That’s me

UKMO D7 is a corker. Double pronged attack on the vortex…Ural block and WAA into Greenland.

A Russian/Siberian HP of this magnitude is usually a harbinger of a cold spell in the December that follows- Really interesting output at the moment

Looks to be a displacement of the strat vortex in FI of the GFS 18z. It may not be a bad thing pushing the HP east rather than holding it over the N Atlantic/Greenland. It’ll open the door further down the line.

Yeah the Arctic HP would probably aid in locking in an E’ly going forward from there.

Looks like a sustained wintry outbreak going forward on the ICON to me.

What people don’t realise when they post the verification stats is that the figures pertain to the hemisphere as a whole and not just one sector. Differing models have different strengths. The E’ly into December is not that far fetched. I just got in and saw the EC and thought to myself, ‘there’s a potential E’ly setting up post D10’

EC has a band of snow S wales into the S and W Mids

Snow risk into the Midlands I’d have thought

Look at the pressure difference over Greenland between the 12z and 0z. Night and day 12z 0z

Bit of a climbdown by the EC it has to be said

Greenland HP is fickle. Scandi blocks tend to be more stable as the jet splits and runs both above and below the HP cell. Get the right split in the jet stream and you can get a long lasting cell that alternates between Scandi and Greenland (62/63).

ICON is a cold run for sure. Tends do under do the coldness of the uppers in N’lys too.

If that frontal zone can stay far enough S, -4 to -6 uppers will be plenty cold enough for frontal snowfall. I think it was Dec ‘17 where the Midlands copped it in such a scenario with -4 or -5 uppers?

Decent strat destroyer

GFS just a bit nuts this morning-

Fairly mobile right into January. Though i think January will feature some fairly potent polar maritime outbreaks…cold zonality if you like with snowfall for the N, hills and, at times, lower ground in the S. Take a look at this, this the MEAN of all of the long rangers for March. We’re very very likely to see a major Feb warming of the strat IMO. For a mean it’s as strong of a signal as you can get-

2013 was pretty unprecedented in all fairness. A repeat can’t really be expected. Though i think a strong strat will succumb in spectacular fashion late winter.

Seems the signs are pointing towards a Feb SSW to me…however i hope to be wrong and that it happens early Jan instead!

Been that way for a while now. CFS has shown it for at least two months

All the evidence at present points to blocking around Greenland/N Atlantic for March. I wouldn’t be surprised if February has a higher CET than it.

I wouldn’t bank on it…March looks pretty unanimously cold/wintry on whichever long ranger you look at, even the CFS (which is grim for winter proper).