Cheshire Freeze

December snowfall is the holy grail for me. Very little melt.

A strong early vortex is not necessarily a bad thing in the long run, we shouldn’t lose sight of that. I’d sooner this, with a coupling of strat and trop now (with a decent SSW chance in January), than a slightly below average strat that does nothing for us at trop level other than half heartedly throw an Atlantic trough at us with a bulging Euro HP.

Interesting. Not just the wind core to look out for then, some severe weather possible to the S of it.

This’ll be red for some N and W parts of the region tomorrow. Would not be at all surprised if gusts of 90+ mph are recorded. Fylde coast etc looks at real risk of a battering from these winds.

Yeah way off. Scraped down to -0.2c here

Could well be a later, extended winter tbh. I wouldn’t expect spring to start in March this coming year. A strong theme of the seasonals is to carry winter on into March.

Without the Euro HP we’re in the game. With lower European heights we don’t need strong heights to the N, wedges will do. In fact the above scenario could actually be snowier for many.

Jan 2013-

I was literally tearing my hair out mate.

Yes, actually very close

Yeahhhhh i’d imagine this will be swiftly locked until mid January

Not seeing the negative perspective. Even under a generally west based -NAO regime there will be times when blocking sits in the right general area for us to go cold. There’s no point micro analysing features of a mean chart to the tune of 500 miles or so.

That’s still potentially cold December trough as it’s more UK/Europe based. I certainly wouldn’t write snow chances off from that.

Feb looks as about -AO as possible to me

I’m not grumbling…we can see the main part of the puzzle

There’s a link to an American forum posted above

CANSIPS looks good to me. Solid -NAO Jan, Feb and Mar

Grim day

Couldn’t hope for a better general set up heading towards winter than what we have at present IMO. Displaced jet stream piling deep troughing against heights to our E. Could get very interesting later Nov and Dec IMO…

The trend is for increasingly long dry periods. Climate change is real and the fact is that the Azores HP is, on average, having more and more effect on our climate. There will come a time (probably within the next 50 years) that the polar jet will be so far N that the UK will likely have a Mediterranean climate. The fact that 40C is now being breached in the UK is no coincidence. It's because a semi-permanent HP is now sitting across S Europe for longer and acting as a heat dome. Mean HP is expanding north. Not sure how it was a stupid comment to be honest.

Anything over 85-90mph would certainly be red.

I do wonder how people would cope living somewhere like Tromso I couldn't cope with the 24 hour light in summer, that's for sure.

We could go forward earlier, I agree on that but I do think we put them back at the correct time. Sunrise is already past 8am here without the clocks going back.

My stance is that I hate light pouring through my window at 4am in midsummer so I'd personally go to BST+1 and have it light until midnight and dark until 5 or later. However that's not the point. GMT is the default UK time zone and unless you want it dark right up until 9am at the winter solstice, it has its uses.

There aren't any traditional work hours these days though (increasingly so). I'd have thought solar noon should pretty closely match our noon tbh. In BST it doesn't. There's that much light in summer that it doesn't really matter anyway. It's not going to be dark when the majority leave work.