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Rorky_Leicester

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Posts posted by Rorky_Leicester

    The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 2

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    the nmm also shows the precip coming in from the nw as very intense precip. In all honesty if I was living around Staffordshire area id be watching this development more than the low through the night.

    And this is due to occur in the afternoon tomorrow? If we can get lucky with the low overnight and then to welcome this beautiful streamer in the afternoon - 5-10 inches??? :winky:

    General Climate Change

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    snipped.

    If I was to substitute your name for mine, and excluding the bit about the Copenhagen summit etc - then I could almost identically cut and paste, word for word, the rest of that correspondence you have received in terms of one I received from an enquiry of my own to them about a year ago.

    I don't know what your own stance is, but my own questions to them about assumptive man made positive feedbacks, the potential influences of negative solar and natural cycles were completely ignored at the expense of the spiel to do with AGW, what has happened since the 1970's, and basically being told just like you to re-read the IPCC gospel blah blahrolleyes.gif

    Haha yeh I expected as much. He completely bipassed my questions and just seemed to give the generic answer to doubts about climate change.

    General Climate Change

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    This is a reply I recieved from the metoffice.

    Dear Mr. O’Rorke,

    I am very sorry it has taken so long to reply to you but we do look to send out an individual response to every enquiry we receive. As I am sure you will appreciate, since the United Nations Climate Conference in Copenhagen last December we have been very busy, with heightened interest in all matters relating to climate change.

    May I first note that the Met Office has been researching climate for many decades. Because of this expertise, the Met Office Hadley Centre where research on climate change is conducted, was opened in 1990 and has provided hundreds of peer-reviewed scientific papers on the subject of climate change. The Hadley Centre scientists are significant contributors to the IPCC and I would encourage you to read the latest Assessment Report: www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html

    During the course of this world-leading research, it became apparent something unusual was happening to the earth’s climate. The earth was warming at a much faster rate than could be explained. The Met Office Hadley Centre scientists have naturally worked on many research projects to understand the causes of this unprecedented warming.

    Climate is much more than just temperature. Warming leads to changes in many aspects of climate, at different rates in different locations – hence the use of the terms such as ‘climate change’ and ‘global warming’.

    The IPCC has a high level of confidence that the earth is currently warming, describing it as ‘unequivocal’ due to the compelling evidence provided by weather observations from around the world over the past 160 years. They also state that it is very likely (greater than 90% probability) that most of the climate change we have seen in the last half century is due to human emissions of greenhouse gases.

    Climate models, which are used to predict the future of the world’s climate, include most known factors which cause internal variability. Because of this, the projections for global climate do not include continual warming year-on-year. Instead they more closely reflect the reality we would expect, with some years warmer than others and even some series of years cooler than preceding years.

    Recent Met Office Hadley Centre research investigated how often decades, with a stable or even negative warming trend, appeared in computer-modelled climate change simulations. We found one in every eight decades has near-zero or negative global temperature trends in simulations. Given that we have seen fairly consistent warming since the 1970s, the odds of one in eight suggest the observed slowdown was due to happen. Our decadal forecast predicts an end to this period of relative stability after 2010. We project at least half of the years from 2010will be warmer than the 1998 record. Climate researchers are, therefore, reinforcing the message that the case for tackling global warming remains strong.

    Out of interest, both the Met Office Hadley Centre and NASA are predicting that 2010 is likely to be the warmest year on record, as detailed on these web pages:

    www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20091210b.html

    http://climate.nasa.gov/news/index.cfm?NewsID=249

    More in-depth information about the science behind climate change can be found on our website (www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science), which you may wish to visit.

    Finally, you may be interested in reading our informative publications about the science of climate change. For details, please visit: www.metoffice.gov.uk/publications/climate-change.html

    I do hope you find this reply useful.

    Kind regards,

    Paul Gross.

    Customer Feedback Team,

    Met Office, Exeter EX1 3PB.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    BBC & Sky News are yet to pick up on the NAE ppn chart for the South on Saturday. Why is that?

    On the latest BBC forecasts theres a hint of it from South Wales up to the Bristol area with snow graphics and alot of Rain coming from behind it so they are definitely aware of the threat.

    General Climate Change Discussion Continued:

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    Oh now Dev! let them have their final flurry......

    I know you do not subscribe to holding folk responsible for their opines but I ,for one , do.

    Folk hold me up as some 'devil of a doomsayer' yet I know I speak the truth.

    Though I am willing to accept apologies it will mean nothing when the past 15yrs of bickering is shown to have cost us our 2/3 of humanity.

    No manner of saying "I was wrong, I was Misguided, I was nought more than a self interested,self centred ,greedy fool"l will do it for me.

    You spoke your piece (with authority) and you will be measured by it.smile.gif

    I am going to archive this post so in 5 years when this whole masquerade has boiled over you can realise what a hyperbolic, ignorant post that was '2/3 of humanity' - give me a break.

    General Climate Change Discussion Continued:

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    If the Metoffice cannot predict seasonal weather, which they have done unsuccessfully (ie. BBQ summer and mild winter ) then how can we trust them to get the forecasts right for 20 years onwards when regarding climate change and rising temperatures. Long term forecasting is a new science and is not yet accurate. Also to add global temperatures have not risen since 1999.

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    West Midlands: Herefordshire Shropshire Staffordshire Stoke-on-Trent Telford + Wrekin W Midlands Warwickshire WorcestershireHeavy SnowSun 10 JanThere is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of England and Wales.

    Further outbreaks of snow, some heavy and prolonged, with accumulations of 2 to 5 cm generally and locally around 5-10cm over high ground. Strong winds will cause drifting of snow. There will also be further icy stretches on roads and pavements.

    Issued at: 1158 Sat 9 Jan

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Good fun on Newsnight tonight seeing someone from the MetOffice squirm under pressure from Paxman. They defended their winter forecast by saying the 30% chance of a cold winter was higher percentage than previous winters. They went on to say that their short term forecasts were brilliant. They also said they picked up the signals of the prelonged cold spell on the 10th December. Now I'm a complete amateur, and I told people at work about a potentially severe winter in the last week of November, just from signals that the GFS and ECM were throwing up consistently in 'Fantasy Island'. All our experts on here picked up on it much much earlier than the MetOffice. So they can defend themselves by saying, if true they went for a 30% chance of a colder than average winter, as opposed to a 20% chance.

    The private forecasting sector has out performed the MetOffice this year by a huge margin outside of 5 days and longer term. Maybe in terms of winter forecasts the others had at least put global warming aside, just for now.

    Chris likes this (Y)

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    -9 outside. Wow i just had trouble getting up my drive, had to drive round the village to gain momentum, hit the gate button just in time and screamed the car up waking all neighbours with high rev counts I LOVE IT.

    I love how metcheck has given up on predicting time scales and dates, 'Severe weather warning until further notice' mind you I cant blame them.

    General Climate Change Discussion Continued:

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    To whoever this may concern,Hello, my name is Christopher O'Rorke and i'm a student at the University of Leicester and follow the weather keenly. To put it bluntly I am completely baffled by your constant plugging of 'Global Warming' or as you've now changed it to 'Climate change'. Aside from the obvious financial gain and media coverage your receiving I'm very confused why your making such a fuss about nothing. I'm very disappointed in the Met office jumping on the bandwagon of Al Gore and for also being caught trying to pay off scientists to agree with Climate change even though they didn't study this subject in particular.I would really appreciate a reply from you, which convinces me why Climate change is now a bigger issue than World Poverty and how this problem deserves more funding than solving world hunger. An estimated $10 billion is needed to solve the world's water problems but you and other brainwashing meteorologists are demanding that this money is spent on what is simply the earth's cycle! If I do not get a reply expect one from me in 5 years when your plugging 'Global Cooling'.Thankyou for your time.Chris.

    This is an email ive just sent to the metoffice, haha had to get it off my chest!

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    To whoever this may concern,Hello, my name is Christopher O'Rorke and i'm a student at the University of Leicester and follow the weather keenly. To put it bluntly I am completely baffled by your constant plugging of 'Global Warming' or as you've now changed it to 'Climate change'. Aside from the obvious financial gain and media coverage your receiving I'm very confused why your making such a fuss about nothing. I'm very disappointed in the Met office jumping on the bandwagon of Al Gore and for also being caught trying to pay off scientists to agree with Climate change even though they didn't study this subject in particular.I would really appreciate a reply from you, which convinces me why Climate change is now a bigger issue than World Poverty and how this problem deserves more funding than solving world hunger. An estimated $10 billion is needed to solve the world's water problems but you and other brainwashing meteorologists are demanding that this money is spent on what is simply the earth's cycle! If I do not get a reply expect one from me in 5 years when your plugging 'Global Cooling'.Thankyou for your time.Chris.

    This is an email ive just sent to the metoffice, haha had to get it off my chest!

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.metoffice.com/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20100106b.html

    Haha, looks like the metoffice are covering their own back in regards to climate change. They obviously know people are having their doubts about it since this cold snap and are trying to reassure people that their overhyped media Por.n is correct. I've translated the article for anyone who is a little confused 'GW is still on, SO GIVE US YOUR MONEY IN TAXES PLEASE'

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Rorky_Lichfield

    People like us understand this but joe public who gets brainwashed by the G/W drivvle and potters round in his Toyota Prius needs to be reassured by the ecoenvironmentalists that all severe weather is caused by us waming the planet up as they need muppetts like these to further there Bull sh**e campaign. I bet you any money that when we get the eventual thaw and people get flooded they'll start banging the G/W drum even louder grrrwallbash.gif

    Totally agree mate, im surrounded by GW hype everyday, it really grinds my gears as peter griffin would say

    Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    wow, ive been getting this very fine moderate blowy snow for hours - visibility is poor, its just like a spray effect on everything, the side wall of my house has been carpeted with snow :) We have about 5" now in total.. I work in a school and i will be listening to the radio intently tomorrow. lovin it!

    5 inches wow! I live in shenstone and i only have an inch tops and your 10 minutes in the car, surely cant be right... :D

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