Kentish Kiwi

The rain today radar certainly seems quite... odd. Seems to be a focal point around London with shards shooting out in all directions if that makes sense. Seems to be struggling particularly as the precip moves through this 'focal point'.

Front seems to still be moving through at a fair old rate. Was expecting it to have slowed down considerably given the weather forecasts seemed to show it remaining over the SE through until mid-morningish...

Pink sky at night, snowman's delight.

Ahh that pretty much answers my question. Hopefully we'll see the precip get heavier/bigger because it is very fine even if falling at a moderate rate...

Are things inland going to get marginal at all? Some 0C dew points on XC weather out to the west... Anyway some quite peculiar snow here. Very fine and glittery and powdery looking... Blowing around significantly in the wind. We already have a 'big drift' (2 inches) building up at the foot of our door which is unusual. Otherwise a good covering, difficult to estimate but a good few cm's.

Am I correct in thinking this front has moved through slightly earlier than predicted? Not far from my location now and was only expecting it to reach here around 9pm...

Going out into Sevenoaks town tonight for my mates birthday dinner (table booked for 6.30). We're obviously well aware of the snow potential but I've told everyone we should be safe until about 8.30-9 on the basis of this mornings forecasts. Is this still the case? I could have a lot of egg on my face if we get snowed in by 8... Was also going to say the temperatures in north-east Kent today has been remarkable. A high of -3C?? About as cold as it can get on the coastline without snowcover...

Obviously things are changing as the day progresses. For one thing the flow will be more off the continent which will drag in colder dew points. If you took some time to look at the NAE you'd see that rain on the coast further west is expected, with snow inland, while further to the east snow is forecast right along the SE coast.

Noticed that as well. Easily the coldest temperature I've ever seen from that area! I really hate to do this, I've tried to look at the NAE and the GFS precipitation charts to get an idea but I'm not too sure... When do people expect the snow to hit here in West Kent? From what I've seen I'm expecting around 9pm...

Any actual time roughly? She doesn't really seem to have an idea of whats actually happening because she asked me whether we had any snow in Sevenoaks...

Was wondering if someone could help me... I've got a friend that's traveled down to the University of Southampton today and is driving back to Kent this afternoon/evening, I was wondering what time the precipitation is expected to arrive there and what time it would be sensible for her to drive back. Any help appreciated, cheers.

Am I the only one that finds the estimates here a little exaggerated in terms of overall totals? Or have I missed something from the 18z's...?

Thanks Paul, that was exactly the kind of thing I was looking for. Interesting I haven't heard much about that February... Though I arrived in the UK in March 2005 and remember there being talk of quite a lot of snow the month before and us having just missed it. Wow, that sounds quite incredible. It really does make recent snowfalls (even my 45cms last December!) look like quite weak affairs. Can't really imagine that happening nowdays and the impact it would have on the capital, let alone rural towns and villages...

Thanks for the reply. I'm unsure of February/March 2004 and 2005 but I was under the impression March 2006 was cold due to northerlies? I'm looking for specific examples of easterlies...

Posted this in the the general discussion thread by accident as I was hoping for a more localised view from this thread, can anyone help? "In the model discussion thread, GP mentioned the potential for a 'big easterly to end the month'. Are there any examples people can think of where easterlies at the end of February/start of March have delivered significant snowfall to our area? I'd be worried convection from the North Sea would be limited due to colder SST's and potentially less cold upper air temperatures..."

In the model discussion thread, GP mentioned the potential for a 'big easterly to end the month'. Are there any examples people can think of where easterlies at the end of February/start of March have delivered significant snowfall to the UK? I'd be worried convection from the North Sea would be limited due to colder SST's and potentially less cold upper air temperatures... Edit: Intended for this to be posted in the regional South-Eastern thread but it would still be interesting to here about UK wide examples of late winter easterlies. If it is considered off-topic, apologies Mods and feel free to delete...

Yes, I fully expect to see the GFS 12z 'binned' by the general model discussion thread as 'too progressive' if we see an eastwards shift. It is quite ridiculous in that sense as a few certain memebers seemingly always find some reason or another to disregard a run if it shows an unfavourable output, yet is in some cases lauded if it portrays a cold or favourable outlook!

Agreed, I don't see too much on offer before the Saturday/Sunday event at all, particularly where I am in West Kent. East Kent may be placed to see a few showers from that that small feature but I'd be surprised to hear about anything over 5cm. This is assuming some freak streamer doesn't set up, which, given the wind profiles, it shouldn't. Edit: Just to clarify, in the above post I am referring to this post from RJS which I assume username was also referring to: Not from Friday's potential. However, definitely possible into Sunday if the precipitation reaches us.

An interesting type of convergence zone (winds convergence) running into that area is almost certainly the explanation for the 'streamer' that seems to have developed I would have thought, in addition to a slightly longer sea track than we have down here which increases the moisture on offer (although only slightly in this instance).

-9 at Benson with a dewpoint of -11 (23:50). Potential for it to drop quite a bit lower through the rest of the night if it stays calm?

I doubt the showers will penetrate far enough inland to even reach West Leeds... If they do they are likely to be scattered and light.

Looks like some kind of radar error. In the meantime we can only imagine:

Anyone?

Yes, the greater the thermal differential (between the upper air and sea) the greater lapse rates are - this helps to fuel convection. The issue we have had is the pressure is so high that the subsiding air is 'cancelling out' this potential which in addition to the origin of the air has lead to an extremely dry airmass. The temperature difference is already easily enough for convective 'lake effect' snow were the pressure low enough and/or if small scale instabilities had developed. Basically we are now looking for moisture levels (dewpoints/humidity) to increase which will lead to better convective potential, although I am still scepticle we will see anything of note from the north sea over the next couple of days in my location. (worth noting my understanding is far from complete and there are many others in this thread who could explain this more accurately)

Chiono just said they've already arrived. It's not like -10C uppers are 'required' for convection anyway, more to do with the moisture and instability that's on offer... Something that has begun to improve after the airmass dried out so thoroughly last night, as is evident by the increasing humidity.