Kentish Kiwi

I wouldn't say that's the best ever news. The 12z at +216/240h is far less interesting than the 00z in terms of prospects for cold from what I can see. Would bring some presumably welcomed unsettled weather though.

I fail to see how +216 is a cold fans dream? Or was that sarcasm...?

Is it generally agreed that the spell of weather we have had/are still experiencing is probably as close to an 'Indian Summer' as we could realistically hope for in the UK? Given that proper frosts in October are often unlikely to occur and heat in November is pretty much impossible?

That depends entirely on skin colour, time spent in the sun, the time of day, if your skin has seen much sun over the summer (ie. if it is prepared for sun exposure) and a whole load of other factors. Its really not something that can be answered categorically but for me, coming from New Zealand where the sun is far more intense, the UV today (of up to 3) definitely isn't anything to worry about, especially given that we're coming out of summer. I don't usually worry about the UV until it gets to around 5+ and I'm spending hours in it directly. Could well be a completely different case for someone who burns more easily and I wouldn't be surprised if quite a few people get burnt today if they were out in the sun for, say, more than 3 hours.

I'd give easily up a cold and snowy winter for this kind of weather from next March through to October

Working fine on Firefox on my Mac too.

Thanks for the replies. Yeah cheers for the help, I had used that technique a few times and seems like I'll have to stick with it for the time being as there isn't really another way around it. Good to know the bug's already been noted though, liking the new look of the the board.

I just thought I'd quickly mention while this thread is quiet that this new version of the forum is very frustrating to use on an iPhone. From what I can see there is no 'skip to last page of posts' so you can only access the first page of every thread and then have to manually go through every page of the thread to get the most up to date posts. This can be incredibly annoying and time consuming on a thread such as this one which runs into the 40's of pages. Can anyone help me with this situation? It could just be that I'm missing something obvious. Sorry to be off topic Mods, I wasn't sure where else to put this. Feel free to delete once you've seen it, any help would be appreciated.

Hazy sunshine all day with a light breeze and feeling very warm. Max of 26C, currently sitting at 25C, typical that this is the first day of school for many. Yesterday was a stunner too.

Off to Cornwall today for a week, staying in an area just a bit east of Newquay on the north coast... Anyone able to give me an idea of what weather I should be expecting given the current model output?

That would seem to fit nicely with the ECM's idea then and possibly provides the 12z with more impetus...

Yes, a huge difference in the +240h charts on the two ECM runs. Just goes to show how uncertain things are even in such 'medium' time frames. However I would say that the 12z run seems to show more support for what yesterdays ECM runs were developing into. Would be interesting to see which of the runs those 500hpa mean charts JH etc. have been posting show support for...

Back from Greece where the weather was flawless... Same old same old in the UK, worse than previous outlooks in fact. Grim. Really hoping the summer will pick up for the last couple of days of July for a festival I'm camping at - doubt it.

Well I'm off to Crete for a week today. Hopefully when I get back we'll be staring down the barrell of what the GFS 06z is showing in FI, with the Azores ridge breaking off and inching slowly eastwards across the BI...

Ahh, those charts say 'Wednesday the 22nd of June'?

29.6C here now. I would hope we'd breach 31C from this point... Quite exceptional heat given that it's only had two days to build off the back of a prolonged average/below average spell.

I'm still not sure of its accuracy over the last couple of days but my garden weather station is already reporting the temperature at 29C at just 10.30! It might not be that far-fetched as Biggin Hill (at the top of the downs) was at 25C an hour ago and Otford is in a valley that usually pools heat in the summer... Pretty remarkable all the same, could be on for our highest temperature since 2006.

26C according to my garden weather station. Seems a bit high compared to surrounding official readings but oddly it's usually quite accurate... Other than the notable increase in temperatures it is pretty much completely blue skies with the odd patch of previous altocumulus having burnt off (not that it was thick enough to block the sun anyway), with hardly a breath of wind. Feeling very warm as a result. Another point of note is how clear and blue the sky is, completely at odds with Eugene and Public Enigma's self-righteous posts discussing how milky and hazy the sunshine would be...

I fail to see how this warrants '!!' or a :o ?? (Also, just so you know, there is no space before an exclamation mark ie. it should be 'Monday!' rather than 'Monday !') Temperatures over 30C in France have been absolutely nailed on for many many days so it is not a surprise or anything special whatsoever. In fact, temperatures higher than 35C seem likely in Central France and it's possible it will exceed 40C in the SW of France. You really are an odd character... Are you attempting to be sarcastic? I still haven't got my head around whether you are intentionally trying to wind people up or if your posts are genuine. On another note, does anyone know where I can access the free Netweather GFS viewer? It seems to have been replaced by a pollen forecast and I can't find it anywhere... Ahhh found them. Was getting pretty worried they had been removed completely in favour of the subscription based Extra charts... Also, PE, if you use a higher resolution temperature viewer you can see the GFS is actually showing 27C for London on Monday, and given it's tendancy to underestimate temperatures, it seems likely it will reach at least 30C in/around London on Monday.

Met-Office Official Heatwave Threshold temperatures Region: Day max (°C), Night min (°C) North East England: 28, 15 North West England: 30, 15 Yorkshire & Humber: 29, 15 East Midlands: 30, 15 West Midlands: 30, 15 East of England: 30, 15 South East England: 31, 16 London: 32, 18 South West England: 30, 15 Wales: 30, 15 These temperatures could have significant effect on health if reached on at least two consecutive days and the intervening night. (The table didn't copy over properly so I had to edit it manually) Nothing else really needs to be said on the matter - these are the official conditions needed to be reached for a hot spell to be labeled a 'heatwave'. It also shows that heatwaves can be localised and do not need to be associated with widespread heat across every corner of the UK, ie. this coming heat may just breach heatwave values in a few parts of the SE & EA but it is unlikely to in the north, yet it can still be officially described as a heatwave in those particular locations where the thresholds are breached. Back on topic, The ECM seems to paint a picture after this hot snap that can probably be described as close to 'pleasant', particularly in the south. Winds look likely to come from a north-westerly to northerly direction with a high anchored out to our west in the Atlantic and northerly blocking remaining in place, however pressure looks to remain relatively high at between 1015 and 1025 and winds look rather slack on the whole. Not a set-up that is likely to bring any notable warmth in the medium term but one that given the time of year and the relatively high pressure should provide us with increasingly sunny spells and less showery weather than what we have become used to during June. Certainly not an outlook to be despondent about but probably a frustrating one for many who are looking for real summer weather after the last two months and how short lived this weekend heat will be.

Oh turn it in would you.

Not too far from average really... But things do look potentially more settled than we have been used to during June.

Yes unfortunately I don't think any high pressure over the UK will be particularly long lasting while those heights remain solid over Greenland.

But it is unusual to see +20ChPa temperatures reaching our shores, which although would seem unlikely it is still a distinct possibility given the ECM 12z (which I believe is the third ECM run in a row to show +20's getting into the UK is it not?)

Incredible how quickly the mood of this thread swings with a single GFS run (that goes against its previous few runs and the last couple of ECM's from what I understand). How about we wait for the ECM 12z and GFS 18z before being so pessimistic. There's every chance it was just a poor run as part of the usual ups and downs of model watching.