Kentish Kiwi

Please don't encourage him...

A rather cool 16C here with a strong and gusty easterly wind but not a cloud in the sight, deep blue skies and feeling pleasant as a result. Very far removed from the raw, cloudy easterly a few members (they know who they are) went on about in the MOD in the days leading up to this easterly spell. Looks to be an exceptionally sunny start to May with there being a possibilty of the first five days being completely cloudless...

Would have thought that if the GFS 18z were to verify it would likely give a solidly above average May and probably the warmest Spring on record.

Surely a little early to be making such a statement...

Is that likely to happen?

Completely agree. North-Easterly Blast's posts about his so-called 'pear shaped winter' are some of the most repetitive, irritating and tiresome I have experienced on this forum. Please, on behalf of I am sure many posters and readers on Netweather, just stop and let it go. On another note, does anyone know if an upward or a downward adjustment is more likely at the end of the month?

So close to the record.

Quite a noticeable smog around the North Downs (I believe its smog anyway) remarkably poor visibility.

Only a few miles from Sevenoaks and have only had a spot or two of rain so far. Can see some good CG strikes and very regular thunder out towards oaks though. Pretty good storm actually... Wasn't expecting anything.

Regular thunder and have now seen a few decent flashes of lightning!

12.3C for me please. Enough to make this the warmest spring on record I believe?

Regular rumbles from a cell here in NW Kent that's become active in the last half an hour or so, no rain or lightning though.

Is it possible today could be even warmer? Is there any risk of the mean CET record being broken?

To be fair though, making assumptions of what the weather will be like April/May simply based off the pattern of what happened in December into January hardly has any real basis... Even if it does bear an 'uncanny resemblence' (something which I had also noted) doesn't mean everything's going to follow on in a similar pattern, in fact I would argue that it's more likely it wont. I do however also get the feeling that we may see more of a predominance of heights to our north now that the Polar Vortex is disintegrating, at least for a period at the beginning of May and especially compared to what we have seen during the last few months.

Just noticed we have a couple of 'May Bugs' (otherwise known as Cockchafers) banging against our windows (attracted to the light). What's interesting is how early they are this year, I seem to remember them only coming out in June last year... Certainly the earliest in the season I've noticed them in the 6 years I've been in the UK.

Would just like to say that this is a fantastic post. Fully agree with all of the above.

Is it really so certain that the April 2007 record is going to be beaten though? The easterly that's been shown on a good few runs looks like it will produce a lot in the way of cloud and cooler temperatures (especially considering how cool some North Sea coastal areas were today)... Could this not peg back the CET considerably? It gets going around the 26th, so that's 5 days where it has the potential to bring temperatures down...

Appreciate the reply GP and certainly what I was hoping to hear to support what those two May GWO composites were illustrating, good to know any potential and sustained northwards retrogression of the HP cell doesn't have too much support from the teleconnections. Also quite an exciting prospect you paint in regards to June, particularly glad to note the differences with 2007...

Very interesting and you would certainly expect it to be the case considering what we are looking at. Also probably very likely we'll see the biggest rise from a December CET to an April CET (quite obvious considering we're looking at potentially the warmest April on record after the second coldest December on record...).

Another brilliant post GP. Certainly not what those hoping for any meaningful rain in the medium term would be hoping to hear. In regards to the bolded sentence; what are your thoughts about the possibility of the current high moving far enough north to bring in a rather solid looking easterly/north-easterly (as has been hinted at several times by the GFS/ECM) and its effect on temperatures, particularly for the eastern side of the UK? ie. is it very likely?

Well GP seems to think its a definite possibility and that even 2007 could be in jeopardy: "Global model ensemble mean products are no in tune suggesting a ridge to develop close to our east and build back west as the trough in the Atlantic elongates and breaks up for the second half of the month. This is hugely significant as it places in the box seat to break records. Warmest April on record, driest March - April spell on record ?" Would certainly be incredible to have the April record smashed so convincingly and then beaten just four years later... It is worth noting that April is a warming month and even if we have a cool middle period, it wouldn't be out of the question for temperatures to recover significantly in the last quarter of the month, especially considering what GP is suggesting.

Those who don't say East Anglia. Pretty dry in this part of the country I suppose, but obviously it hasn't been very warm (in the grand scheme of things) so evaporation hasn't really been a factor and the lack of rainfall isn't nearly as serious as if it were to occur in peak summer-time. That said, the bird bath is finally starting to dry out (rather earlier than other years) so the strength of the sun & temperatures are beginning to have an effect. The medium-longer term outlook on the GFS looks decidedly zonal from what I've seen of the last few runs which certainly can't be a bad sign for those hoping for rain. However the west to north-westerly winds on offer probably wouldn't produce anything of particular note in the SE/EA with the tendency for high pressure to our south over the near continent.

I'm not really too surprised with your above comments, you've never been the most most optimistic of posters in my experience... I suppose it depends on what you consider to be a 'notably warm' summer. If by 'notably warm' you mean the kind of very good summer that comes along once or twice a decade (and I believe a notably warm summer does occur, on average, once or twice a decade), then such a statement is, too be frank, ridiculous, as there is obviously far more chance of a once or twice a decade summer occurring than a record (over 300 years) cold summer occurring. It's simply not 'more likely', by the laws of statistics. Then again if by 'notable warm' you're referring to a repeat of 1976 or August 2003 (and in my opinion they were far more significant than just 'notable') then such a statement may have more support behind it. Either way I would have thought regardless of background teleconnections for the upcoming summer we would be more likely to see a record warm summer than a record cold one, simply due to the warmer base temperature of the earths surface in recent times and a trend for increasingly warm summers (up until 2007), although I think either occurring is extremely unlikely. Also, the fact that we have experienced what many would consider 4 average to poor summers overall on the trot, although I'm not entirely sure how strongly the statistics would back this up and they certainly haven't been too bad in the SE, there could be support to say we are statistically 'overdue' a warmer, sunnier and drier summer, especially UK wide and not just confined to the SE/EA... Out of interest, does anyone know what state the common teleconnections and drivers (NAO, AO, ENSO, AMO, PDO etc) were in during recent summers (last 50 years or so) that were significantly cool/wet/unsettled? i.e. what atmospheric state is conducive to poor summers in the UK...

Absolutely agree with you there, was thinking the exact same thing. It seems to me as though North-Easterly Blast has developed sone sort of personal vendetta or grudge against the winter of 2010/11 and has gone out of his way to portray it in a negative light (probably without even realising it). Though I do agree with him to an extent in regards to the 'pear-shapedness' of the winter. Personally this winter has been FAR from a 'disappointment' and will certainly be looked back on fondly, it definitely doesn't compare with the mild winters experienced between 1988-2007. I get the feeling that there would be far less complaining, negativity and dissapointment in regards to the winter as a whole if the months had been flipped and we saw a classically mild December and a below average yet largely snow-free January, followed by a severe and very snowy sub-zero February (even though it would be statistically less significant than the November/December spell), simply because of the physiological effect of the cold and snow being fresh in the memory and 'saving' what many would probably be labelling a potentially disastrous winter. This even though such severe and persistent cold and snow is much harder to achieve so early in the season than in February. I personally would prefer a spell of severe wintry weather in December than a comparable one in February - less solar influence and therefore less day-time thawing, with sharper overnight (and day) frosts as a result. Plus the added bonus of warmer SSTs provideing more instability and therefore convection for easterlies, just as we experienced. Anyway, just an alternative way, to that which NEB has been repeatedly championing, of looking at the unarguably memorable winter we have just experienced.

I can't seem to find this appraisal video anywhere... Any help?