Kentish Kiwi

Sorry, phrased that question badly. Obviously I can read the name, but I don't actually know who he is, as in what credibility he has or if anyone knows him...

That article/forecast makes for very interesting viewing, especially considering the accuracy from last year (assuming that is actually what he/they predicted this time last year). May I ask who wrote the above forecast?

Although we did water it regularly through the early summer dry period, I can't remember seeing my lawn looking so green, lush and healthy in the 5+ years I've lived here. Definitely no signs of dry weather remaining here, from what I can remember the rains have been pretty regular since around mid-July. Even though things did get pretty dry round here through June, and rainfall was low throughout the year until recently, it seems to me as though there was a lot of hype and panic over droughts etc that once again amounted to nothing and will quickly become a thing of the past as Autumn pushes in. Reminds me of last year where talks of drought in this area continued through the summer and into October (November obviously broke any ideas about the dry weather continuing) as the fine, dry weather continued bringing about the sensationalist type posts warning of water shortages etc, however I'm honestly yet to see any real repercussions from such things other than a rather skeptical hose-pipe ban in the North-West that seemed to spell a premature end to their summer with it deciding to rain on almost the exact day it was put in place and never really stopping since.

Probably a silly question, but will this storm have any effect at all on UV levels over the coming day/s?

To add to that... Just heard the first rumble off to the north-west. Was relatively quite and far off but lasted a decent while...

Some light convective rain here in NW Kent. Skies look very dark to the west, hopefully we get something more than rain from it!

Umm, where does it say anything about it being the 'wettest ever' July anywhere?

From what I'm reading of the situation, my guess of 16.9 may end substantially too low (ie something more around 17.5), with the next few days likely to be around 17.5(?) and then a possible warm end to the month...

The thing is, not many people in the UK at all, not just those in Scotland, could cope with several days of '30-32C with 80-90% humidity' which I should think is something not experienced in the UK even during the hottest heatwaves. I would go as far to say as that it would be significantly worse than several days of mid-30's with the usual low humidity accompanied by it when such temperatures are reached in the UK. With such high humidity your talking real tropical heat, the humidex calculator gives a whopping reading of 50C and 'dangerous discomfort' at 32C with humidity at 90% (at the higher end), and still an incredible 43C and 'great discomfort' at 30C with 80% humidity (at the lower) as a point of reference for what that kind of heat is equivalent to.

You really do have ridiculous expectations of the weather in NI and the British climate as a whole. You have to drop your hopes that your going to get three weeks of 'constant' 25C. Its not going to happen, and I would be very surprised if it has ever happened on record. Your regularly complaining and moaning is starting to get really irritating. You need to except that your never going to have prolonged or extreme summer heat that the SE/EA is capable of achieving way up in the extreme NW in Northern Ireland; its the simple physics of weather, and if you actually need someone to explain to you why (many others have tried previously but you seem to outright ignore them) after over a year of participating on this weather forum then... :lol: A hot one down here again, with temperatures topping out at 30C under hazy/sunny skies. Currently clear, calm and still pleasantly warm at 23C. Norwich is still ridiculously warm at 28C at 9 o'clock according to XC Weather.

Was 32C not reached last year during the late June/ early July heatwave?

Still plenty of time for things to turn this into a wet, or at least above average summer for rainfall, were only 1/3rd through it remember. Although to be fair, given the trend from the last few months it would seem more likely that the summer as a whole will come in below average, than above.

Have we had a below average July for the last three years in a row?!

I'm relatively sure last June was above average but not particularly so. I would have thought the last 'warmer' June was 2006?

I definitely agree on the particular mugginess of that spell, however down here in the south-east it definitely wasn't 'often really wet' although I'm obviously not saying it wasn't elsewhere. In fact I remember it being far drier around my area than it is currently with nearly all green gone from grass and garden, while although it is dry and beginning to brown off here it still doesn't compare to that which was an accumulation of notable dryness through April, May and June. It was also an exceptionally sunny spell from what I can remember, with at least five consecutive days of almost complete wall to wall sunshine (those five all reached or topped 30C). This spell of heat has not been all that sunny down here with afternoon cloud cover often building up over the last two weeks or so, although it has still been warm, apart from the last two/three days which have produced more in the way of unrestricted sunshine. This in addition to the fact that only one day so far (yesterday) has been able to properly rival the temperature reached during the five day peak of the heatwave last year where an official level two heat warning was released by the MetO. Firstly, see above. Secondly, (and I know I've said it already in a few other topics) the spell from late June/a few days into July last year produced 13/14 consecutive days of temperatures at or above 25C. Evidently this apparent persistence of warmth was pretty restricted to the SE corner and I get the feeling that the reason this spell is getting more attention is because its producing more widespread warmth and settled conditions across a much wider area. Also I'm not entirely sure how many 25C+ days this spell has created, but I'm pretty certain that we've had at least a week's worth and that by the end of this weekend we will probably have seen more than last years spell, as you seem to be using that as a benchmark.

What about the late June/early July heatwave from last summer? Am I the only one who remembers that...?

16.9 for me please. Hopefully less wet than the previous few July's.

Nearby Biggin Hill reached a high of 30C today making it the hottest day of the year there since that heat back in early July last year, coinciding with the annual year air show held at the airfield there. I think that actually makes it 4 years in a row where the Biggin Hill airshow weekend has reached/exceeded 25C. Considering BH is quite exposed (on the top of the downs) and Otford is in sheltered valley around 200m lower, I would say its quite a safe bet to say that my high today was 1C higher than BH's at 31C

Absolutely zero chance of the temperature even getting near to 35C anywhere in the UK today. 32C seems like the highest possible official maximum I would have thought, most probably in Gravesend considering its at 31C now. Its hit 30C here now although a thin veil of high cloud is creeping in from the west and is now partially blocking the sun. Still, nowhere near as good as last years spell at this time where we had 5 consecutive days of 30C+.

I've just now hit 28C according to my thermo. It may well be correct considering I'm 20 minutes away from Biggin Hill but in a valley that is of considerably lower altitude than BH and it has been an hour since that recording of 26C. Seems like my area is currently pretty much the warmest in the country, although I would have thought as usual Heathrow would be most likely to record 31C if anywhere in the next couple of hours.

Am I right in thinking that the ECM 12z would likely get the CET to 15.5C+?

Not hopefully in my opinion, and many others for that matter. Although it is just opinion and as you stated you do prefer cooler weather. I mean, come on though, we've just gone through the coldest winter for 30 years and a below average Spring, with the coolest May since 1996 and you hope that June is just a warm blip? It would be pretty depressing if the rest of the summer continued average/cool after June, especially if the winter is going to follow suit from the last (not saying it will, just if). The window for good, warm weather is so narrow in this country as it is...

Quite a significant difference between the 12z and the 18z at +144 which is even more noticeable at +168, with a low pressure and a north-easterly on the 12z replaced by high pressure and light winds on the 18z as the low pressure over the continent has less of an influence and as a result the heights to our west are able to make a good transition eastwards. In the winter this would have been extremely important, with the GFS moving away from what would have been a full blown unstable NEerly, to a cold (in the winter) high pressure system and the easterly being moved into France. This is also backed by the UKMO and to a slightly lesser extent the ECM with the GFS coming into line with the Euro's (on this run at least) regarding that +144-168 timeframe, an increasingly positive sign for more prolonged and better summery weather as that signal for a NE/E breeze off the North Sea continues to weaken.

"temps look to often fall just a bit below average with some cool nights too"?? As Bottesford said, please, illustrate. Personally I don't know how your coming to that conclusion... A widespread warm up looks the most likely outcome if anything, from what I can see, and temperatures haven't even been that much below average at all in the first place, apart from in the North-East.

A thoroughly pleasant outlook from the ECM and UKMO out to +144 with the ECM continuing the high pressure theme with its run only getting better in terms of warmth as it goes on. Pretty summery if you ask me, with no real sign of the Atlantic making inroads and the jet well to the north of the UK (for once!) something we have rarely seen in the last few years. Best of the weather seems likely to be around the West Midlands and into Wales. From a SE point of view I am slightly worried about the high being just that little bit too far north which would lead to a breeze off the North Sea and a reasonable chance of cloud. That said, at this time of the year a flow off the North Sea doesn't always mean cloud, a number of factors will influence where (or if) the cloud becomes a problem and it could well be a case of morning cloud being burnt of into the afternoon. A positive sign/trend is that the last few runs have placed the high a little further south, leading to a weaker wind and higher pressure which will not only lead to less cloud, but also increase the chances of it being burnt off. I guess we'll know more nearer the time around Monday/Tuesday... Anyone have any thoughts on that cloud that has a chance of spoiling things for us down here and along the east coast, if it is a case of cloud off the North Sea, how far is it likely to make it inland with such a strong, high sun?