Kentish Kiwi

Which to be fair won't mean much if the ECM goes with the UKMO. Personally the only way I see things being cleared up tonight is if the ECM clearly and definitley backs either the GFS or UKMO, it will only confuse things further if it comes out with its own mid-way evolution (which looks somewhat unlikely). However, saying that even if the ECM does show that its clearly in agreement with one of the two, things really won't be clear until at least mid-morning tomorrow, as there would still be the big uncertainty with either the UKMO or the GFS + Minnows completely at odds with the others... To put it simply, and as many others have said several times, the only certainty at the current time is uncertainty - it really is on a knife edge :lol: KK

Really? Looks to me as though its pretty much ranging from dead E to at its most northerly a NE, but mainly staying at a direction of around ENE - Have a look on the UK stream charts from around T+228 onwards (unless I'm completely misreading the charts). In fact I personally couldn't find a chart in FI that had a SE flow with the Easterly slowly developing into a northerly in the depths of FI. Certainly wouldn't be dry with such severe uppers and vigorous convection of the North-Sea. Wind direction looking particularly juicy for the SE and East-Anglia, definitely more Northerly tint than a Southerly, although mainly strongly E. But as you say, not much point in the details that far out, best to just look at the general trend as many are doing - and it seems to me that doesn't look mild KK

:lol: The anti-Bartlett? That's just about as good as it gets for us, isn't it? Lower than -15 850's and the dam down into 504 for the South-East!

Oddly enough, I didn't see a single proper flake in either Tonbridge or Sevenoaks through the day. Just goes to show with such a localised event as this there can be relatively large distance over quite short distances, with various factors having influence.

I love how this cold spell has left us thinking 0c is mild! :) Maybe thinks the SE is most relevant as its closest to him?? Moderate snow continuing, nice size flakes too, hopefully will start to lay a little better as dewpoint decreases. The question is, who should you put your faith in? Your Window, or your iPhone? Personally I'd go with what the iPhone's saying and come to the conclusion that it is indeed snowing... :lol:

Radars really are performing terribly today with this situation for some reason.

Currently experiencing moderate-heavy snow falling, as has been the case on and off throughout the day, not really making much effort to settle unfortunately.

Hi Chiono, Just wanted to pop in and give my thanks for the effort you (and a couple of others) put into this thread and monitoring the Stratospheric conditions, with it also quite refreshing to be able to read through such an organised, succinct and 'clutter free' thread (although I'm probably not helping things by adding this). Very interesting stuff and is in my opinion critical when looking ahead during the winter. Seems things are at least slightly more promising looking towards February than they were earlier in the month, showing just how quickly things can change. Just a quick question. From what I've gleaned, I believe that the various forms of warmings of the Stratosphere, disrupts and weakens the Polar Vortex in different ways, in relation to zonal winds and there slowing/reversal? I was just wondering what the difference between a SSW and MMW is (if any), what they actually stand for and which is more promising? Thanks, KK :lol: :lol:

Actually I think statistically the coldest time of year is Late Jaunuary/first few day of February, even if the days are getting slightly longer and the sun that bit stronger by that time.

Haha, so true, I do notice that some people (not gunna name names ) manage to get pretty regular 'BLIZZARDS' and 'WHITEOUTS' whenever there a snow event or even a few showers blow through of some kind even though others are just getting moderate-heavy snow. Maybe they just have there own severe micro-climates . Probably just more excitable than others and get caught up in the moment, they'd probably die with excitement if they experienced a 'true' blizzard! On that note, just experienced a period of actual heavy snow, that was really coming down, did see rather wet though, or at least more wet than snowfall of late. Died down no to just light snowfall at the moment, been experiencing similar conditions all day.

Moderate/heavy shower now, can't say I'm that excited to be honest and it seems like rather wet snow, all a bit futile now. Sadly the lovely Icecles we had are now withdrawing quickly and it doesn't help that the little 'uns have been outside and ravaged the decent covering we had making it look rather miserable now. Coming down quite enthusiastically now, shouldn't really complain too much ay!

Hey Winterfreak, I'm just up to the north of you a bit and have experienced moderate/light snow on and off this morning, the odd thing is that there is really nothing discernable on any of the radars, a few very light pinky patches showing up but , but nothing that would illustrate some of the moderate falls we've been having, and it seems this is widespread. Can't think of a reason why it would happen but its probably related to the upper warm front. I think he was probably referring more to Kent in particular, which in general I would agree with. The 'streamers' over the last day or so that have set up have have had much more impact in central and Eastern Kent due to a NNE to NE wind, while the Thames streamer back in February had more effect in Western Areas of Kent and London, due to the ENE to E wind... Will this wind ever turn more Easterly? Everyone keeps on saying over the last few days that it is and to have patience, but I'm yet to see any evidence that it has/is making a definite attempt to do so, even though the models earlier in the week were predicting them to turn by around Thursday/Friday I thought? XC Weather currently showing a NNE wind over my area, have to say I'm getting quite sick of it, the easterly just keeps getting pushed back and back. Anyway lets hope Steve and Nick are right, and it does turn more Easterly soon, which will lower dewpoints and reduce the thaw, although if I'm honest I've given up in seeing anything snowfall wise other than a light dusting which will hardly be notable :lol::lol:

Is it really necessary to use all cap locks? Really is quite annoying and on many forums there is actually a ban against doing so... Only succeeds in making you seem obnoxious and irritating.

Umm, I think you'll find thats called wind Neil!

Is that in regards to the coming front moving North-West over the Channel from France. It was predicted to bring us light snow, and that's what it is bringing to those areas in France. However as we have seen today with this minor front developing into something bigger due to convection and instability, are we expecting this front to also pep up in intensity as it passes over the channel?

Yes I believe it is.

Is it ever going to turn!! I swear it was forecast to happen a few days ago, but keeps on changing slightly last minute and getting put back!? I wouldn't worry too much, it may just be the warmth of your house due to central heating, which rises out through the roof, hence warming the lying snow. I've had it going on for the snow on my roof for a while now, it was even dripping rapidly last night at -5C so at least for me it isn't connected to the outside temperature. On the plus side the dripping water is freezing quickly and forming some awesome widespread icecles along the guttering

Am I right in thinking the winds have veered more Easterly towards something like ENE rather than NEish. Certainly seems like the band is beginning to push further westwards, better news for us West Kenters and those on London + Surrey. Hows the intensity like in these showers? Is it keeping it together or weakening slightly?

Moderate-heavy snow started here with good sized flakes. Nothing to extreme like other reports, and its not laying as well as I might have expected so far, but hey at least its snowing! Was going to say there was no wind of note but just as I thought it a really big gust of wind blew through ripping snow of the roofs and trees etc, can certainly understand the reports of blizzard conditions, especially as were relatively sheltered here compared to the coasts!!

Not all of Kent, mainly seems to be Central and Eastern areas. Here in the west most has decayed before it reaches us, this NE wind is really annoying!

Nothing here yet and it continues to decay as it pushes ever so slowly westwards. Starting to get frustrated hopefully my fortunes will increase later on in the day.

Agree with you there, just hope it manages to keep it together enough to see something moderate at least for the time being. At least this is just the start and theirs plenty more to come that will hopefully be more intense...

Intenisty picking up now off the East looks like East Kent/East Sussex is about to get hit pretty damn hard! :lol:

Its a trough ahead of the main band and it seems to be pretty active itself. You would expect the main band to be more intense and prolonged too, but guess we'll have to wait and see. It seems odd that many are expecting light snow, considering all the reports of moderate to heavy snow over Germany, Belgium, Holland and France from the band we are expecting, surely if anything it would pep up more with instability over the North Sea?

If it had lasted for three hours+ it would have been an actual blizzard by definition, so pretty much actual blizzard conditions for a time, wind gusts need to be at 35mph+ with heavy blowing snow and lowered visibility which it seems you had. Must have been awesome!