Kentish Kiwi

And similarly how confident many were of December 2009 continuing the mild theme set in place through November with its extremely active Atlantic, only for a dramatic, rather surprising turn around to the easterly around the 18th and subsequent northerly that turned December into a cold, below-average month with above average snowfall and a 'snookered' Atlantic.

I had the exact same thing happen to me. From around 23 down to 15 in the space of about half an hour. Making our BBQ outside turn rather chilly as an annoying breeze picked up, the drop in temperature was very noticeable indeed.

Something I posted in the Model Output discussion and thought might be relevant here in regards to the dry weather associated with blocking patterns: In regards to this blocking we have seen throughout the winter both to our North and West and the very real chance of some kind of blocked pattern continuing, the North of New Zealand too has seen an extremely blocked Summer and Autumn period from January through to May. This in turn lead to widespread droughts officially declared with very little rain falling during the 5 month period. In fact Auckland, a thin sliver of land between the Tasman sea and the Pacific ocean with the prevailing winds westerly and a humid, sub-tropical climate (ie one where you expect at least reasonable rain during the summer), also saw drought conditions with little noticeable rain falling through the summer and it becoming the driest summer quarter (or any quarter of the year) since records began. February and March both saw records broken with 5 and 8mm respectively, in addition to April continuing the very dry pattern, which is way below the average for the time of year. The dry conditions which have caused major problems for farmers and those who live in rural communities such as my Auntie who many of whom live off water tanks, meaning water has had to have been bought in by trucks frequently. However, the highs also brought noticeably above average temperatures and meant summer lasted deep into the autumn, the term 'Indian summer' being thrown about on some articles I've read, in addition to above average sunshine hours across much of the upper North Island. The main point of this ramble is that the blocking highs situated across the Tasman have proved very stubbourn and have only recent been broken with multiple sub-tropical depressions moving in from the North and it seems a similar situation has been experienced in the UK these last few months. This blocking may be very difficult to displace and it would be interesting if it could situate itself in a favorable position, such as we have just experienced, but for a more extended period of time through the summer. I don't know... Just an example I found interesting, in that blocking patterns seem to be common place across the globe (or at least in these two places where it isn't common) and have the potential to remain in influence for many months at a time - something that might provide food for thought. Some short articles from a NZ Weather site -weatherwatch.co.nz some might find an interesting read, although I'm not saying I think this is likely to happen in the UK also, its interesting to see the result of such blocking patterns through the summer: Driest quarter for more than 50 years Record breaking dry spell for Auckland Drought creates feed shortage for winter Drought officially declared in Auckland, Waikato Its the middle of Autumn, so where are the storms? Indian summer rolls on for some Auckland needs to save water now

Which is even more odd, considering that in my experience the BBC/MetO usually underplay temperatures in their forecasts, there must surely be a reason for such them to make such a call?

Although what you are saying is usually truthful, I'm not sure I've seen a positive post from you in some time and it is rather annoying, although to be honest it might just be that your simply telling me what I don't want to hear in regards to the northerly set-up, even if it is the most overwhelmingly likely outcome. Still I'm sure you could be more positive (or put a positive twist on things) if you put the effort in... Aaannddd back on topic, I've personally been quite surprised by the current warm spell, having missed out on all of April and the associated warmth in New Zealand for a month (extended from two weeks due to the ash) and not having felt warmth at home in the UK since September which is quite different to experiencing heat abroad. Although that said, the warmth hasn't really been a 'shock to the system' like it may have been for many others, because it was considerably warmer in NZ anyway, so I've been adjusted for spring/summer warmth since then.

I might be hallucinating here but are you actually COMPLAINING about getting up to 25C?! What makes it even more bizarre is that you live in Northern Ireland - hardly renown for heat, I'm sure 25 isn't very common that far north, especially considering its May. Rather than making a deal out of it that you didn't get to one degree higher (which actually would make hardly any difference at all to the feel of it) why don't you just enjoy the lovely, impressively above average and settled weather like the overwhelming majority of others are on this forum. I only managed 22C here with cloudless skies due to a sea breeze here in the South-east, where heat is much more common, and it was an absolutely stunning day and I'd gladly take it day after day. It really is quite ridiculous to complain about the semantics of not getting to a certain temperature, just be glad with what we've got after such a cold winter and cool may!

I guess it comes down to opinion in the end, although I would say its being extremely pessimistic and not to mention ignorant to simply write off the summer in May (although it does depend on what you define as 'writing off' the summer), that being similar to writing off the winter in November; which would rightly so be immediately argued against if it were brought up on these forums at that time of year. Location is also probably a major factor in this argument, myself living much further south than the two of you, being in the south-east, and consequently my opinions on last summer are strongly contrasting to your own. Down here we had a very agreeable, dry and pleasant summer which followed on from a sunny, dry and settled spring with an exceptional June and as a result I would gladly take a repeat. However, I understand this would be against what a large proportion in the country would want, with those in the north and west having had an unsettled and cool summer, not having had the repeated continental influence we regularly saw.

Is that for the GFS or ECM?

ECM 12z backs away from the northerly too, although it at one point shows an opportunity for one to come in, after this current high pressure system (and associated warm spell) it evolves too far east and instead the UK is left with a new high pressure developing over it out in FI. Have to say it looks like the slight better, more settled weather will be to the west, with the east more likely to see any effects/coolness from this phantom northerly incursion if it does develop at all.

Juicy 06z, would definitely, as the saying goes, 'bank on that' - shame its almost certainly a large outlier, but I suppose not long now till well see if its actually picking up a new trend with the 12z or not. On the other hand the 00z and ECM both paint a promising, summery picture anyway, even if there is that northerly creeping in towards the end. Today, here in the South-East, it has been pretty warm and generally sunny reaching up to about 18 around midday, however cloud quickly bubbled up and by around 2 o'clock it was almost completely overcast and the temperature correspondingly dropped to 16 as it currently stands. Whats disappointing is that its warmer now over much of the country including even Aviemore and its even cooler out on the South-East coast where temperatures haven't risen from 12C all day due to a thick sea fog! A question for some of the more knowledgeable of you out there if you don't mind: Everytime I look at the GFS temperature forecasts for this upcoming warm-spell it seems to have the whole of the South-East, including the wholly inland parts under depressed figures in the mid-teens and even lower on the coast, while the rest of the country and in particular the Central-South bathe in temperatures in the mid-twenties. Even though we look to soon be well under the influence of the center of the high pressure there still seems to be a very slight E-SE flow and I'm wondering if these GFS forecasts are simply inaccurate due to their relatively low resolution and the low temperatures its showing are just for the immediate coastline, but it can't competently illustrate the rise as it moves inland into the heart of the SE, or that it will actually be the case due to the (what looks to be a considerably weak and indirect) flow off the sea bringing cloud and murk this far inland (North-West Kent)? It seems very odd for it to be showing temperatures so depressed in the SE under a HP situation with warm air advecting from the South; its normally our area or those slightly to the NW that record the highest temperatures in these situations. Any thoughts?? Sorry if this seems rather jumbled and confusing; its been rather rushed and is slightly complicated to describe concisely. Any response will be appreciated Cheers, KK

Opinions are obviously just that - opinion, but I personally think that's a ridiculous suggestion. Would you then apply that to winter or early and mid spring; for instance if we somehow managed to get 17 in January in London (10C above the average of 7C I believe) would that constitute a heatwave and the associated warnings? Of course not, because 17 isn't even particularly warm, although it would feel peasant if it were to occur during mid-winter. The same can be said for March, would 21C count as a heatwave (being 10C above average) and in April, would 24C be a heatwave? Or is May somehow a special month, with its own rules, independent of the others? If 10C above were to occur in June, July, August or even September you would expect the temperature to be above 30C, which would then in my opinion be warm enough to be considered a heatwave. A couple of days in mid/late May that barely reach solidly into the mid-twenties should in no way be considered a heatwave. The term is far to loosely thrown about. Very warm for the time of year? Yes. But surely a 'heatwave' should have some defined meaning behind it and only be used when the heat is strong enough to be of concern to those at risk (which the MetO in fact does, as I'm sure your aware). 26C in favored areas will be noticeable, especially in the sun (as it would be at any time during the summer) but surely not dangerous to anyone unless their being absolutely stupid.

You've got to be joking. Yes it will be pleasantly warm and largely sunny come the end of next week if the GFS/ECM come off, but you are deluding yourself if you think it will be anywhere near 'heatwave territory'. Even if it does reach that rather optimistic 26C you say, I don't understand how that in anyway constitutes a 'heatwave'. The high twenties (ie 27-29) were reached plenty of times in the South-East last summer, yet only once did the spell of heat warrant an actual heatwave - which was the hot spell in late June to early July, bringing temperatures of around 30C for five consecutive days to a widespread area; and in truth that was a rather mild heatwave in regards to the highest temperature only officially reaching 32C. Basically it is simply sensationalistic to call the upcoming spell anything close to a heatwave (and this seems to happen every summer whenever a spell of warm to very warm weather is on the horizon) its more just what you should expect from a calm, sunny, high pressure scenario in late spring/early summer. Please don't get peoples hopes up too much. Cheers, KK

Hail in June really is nothing to comment on at all. You can (and do) get hail at all kinds of temperatures at any time of year. Hail is more related to convection and the convective potential of clouds/showers (not to mention obviously loads of other factors that influence such a set up) rather than temperature and dew point like snow. For instance I've experienced hail in NZ due to vigorous convection during the height of summer when the temperature was in the mid twenties, and you very commonly get hail in US (Usually the Central-South) during the tornado season of late spring - early summer, where temperatures get into the mid 30's.

As others have said, it really is very frustrating (not to mention depressing) to see people completely writing off hopes of a good to decent early summer. Patterns such as this may be hard to shift and it may be difficult for some to imagine that a turn-around could happen in time to 'save' May (and for that matter Summer), but am I the only one who remembers the November to December pattern change last year. That was quite a drastic change from very mild (one of the warmest Novembers on record) with strong, dominating South-Westerlies from active lows in the Atlantic and a strong jet; to Northerly blocking, cold Easterly winds and a seemingly snookered Atlantic. The two synoptic situations we found ourselves in almost complete polar opposites. A further note is that at that point (Late November-Early December) there was very little sign of true Winter on the cards in the near time frame on any of the models and the majority of long range forecasts (including Netweathers own GP) were predicting a mild to very mild December, with Winter proper only projected to start after Christmas, into New Years. But December turned out to be a very cold month by modern standards with plentiful, widespread snow over a number of regions. What I'm trying to say is just because this current pattern seems oppressive and depressing, and just because their is little apparent light at the end of the tunnel from the models and long range forecast does not mean a turnaround is not just around the corner... :wacko:

OP I find these statements rather obscure and some reasoning or sources to back it up would maybe help to throw some (sun)light over it. I'm not entirely sure where you've got this idea from, but I'm pretty sure its incorrect. The fact is you get both burnt and tanned primarily by the same type of UV ray, that being UVB, with UVA contributing more towards the aging of the skin, the tanning process itself being a defence by your skin to protect it against the sun. Obviously the rate at which this happens differs depending on the strength of the sun i.e. the UV rating, but saying that you 'burn more than you tan in the UK compared to other countries' sounds like a misconception. In fact I'm pretty sure that you burn AND tan more in somewhere like Spain, compared to the UK, due simply to the stronger UV. Coming from New Zealand (where the UV can reach 15 in the summer, which is up there with the highest in the world, compared to 7 to possibly 8 in the UK) I've always manage to catch a good tan through the summer months here, yet I've never been sun burnt even without using suncream, while for instance I did get sunburnt in Barbados this February while applying SPF 30-50 frequently. I guess what I'm trying to say is that its simply illogical that something would mean you burn at a faster rate compared to how quickly you tan in the UK, its more that you tan and burn at an appropriate rate in relation to the UV levels, your skin type and current depth of tan (as a natural defense against the UV) no matter where you are in the world, as everywhere recieves the same kind of UVA and UVB rays, just at different intensities. Surely its rather unlikely that a person with an average skin tone (whatever that is) could get burnt in February with the UV hardly getting above 1, unless it was someone with very very fair skin, especially considering the limited time the sun is in the sky, and more especially the 11-2pm period, during that month? On the topic of UV levels, although skin cancer is a very real danger to everyone in the UK, it is amazing how weak the UV actually is here, or maybe just an indicator of how strong it is in NZ. Granted in mid-summer it is quite potent ranging from 6-8, which possibly would burn fair skin easily if unprotected and possibly even medium toned, but I've only recently been comparing the UV levels throughout the year over here with back home in New Zealand. Due to closer proximity to the equator and a gaping big hole in the ozone, the UV can get up to 15 there in the north in mid-summer, although its usually more around 13 in Auckland for example - the burn time under those conditions being less than 10 minutes. At the moment in Auckland (getting well into Autumn and considering how far away it is from December 21st) its still up at 8 (very high) on the scale, though I'm not sure of what it drops to during the Winter, I would guess something around 3-4 as you can catch a tan on any sunny winters day. It just shows how strong the sun really is there, with 13-15 worse than anything the Mediterranean gets and the UK/MetO scale only going up to 11+ - no wonder its got the highest rates of skin cancer in the world... KK

With all due respect, I'm very certain that it would not have been '55+ plus for the whole time' you were in Egypt. In fact I doubt anywhere in the world has recorded a week of 55+, considering the highest ever recorded temperature is something like 57.8 (although I believe there are other contestants ever so slightly higher) in Al'Aziziyah, Libya, and the highest temperature ever in Egypt was recorded at Kharga with 50.3C. It seems more plausible it was in the low-mid 40's although possibly getting into the high 40's. As someone else said it was may have been that in direct sun exposure and possibly have been higher in terms of the 'heat index' although this is largely influenced by humidity which will have been very low in such desert conditions. I'm sorry if I sound rather blunt explaining this, but it does annoy me when people have wholly unrealistic views on temperatures they experienced on holiday somewhere. Your ignorance, stubbornness and rudeness doesn't endear you to anyone I'm afraid and this comment "than someone who lives in India and United Shops of McDonald" was totally unnecessary. As stated above the highest temperature EVER recorded ANYWHERE in the world is something like 57.8C. Its literally impossible that you recorded a legitimate 55C reading. It may have said that on your thermometer (or even various ones at that) but that result is certainly corrupted by what could be a number of factors, although in this case its seems most probable that it was effected by direct or indirect sunlight. I would have no hesitation to bet my life that the recording is incorrect and ignoring the sound, friendly advice given by others that you are wrong, only makes you seem frankly ridiculous. Maybe just for one second, stop and think about how a part of Norway managed to get to only 3 degrees lower than the world record, even though it is massively cooler than African and Middle Eastern deserts that fail to reach such dizzying heights, for example Egypt (a hot desert) has 'only' got to 50.3 as its highest on record, how is it possible Norway got to 5 degrees above that - its not. I know you will probably continue to ignore what has been said and I'm sorry if I've come across as rude, but my annoyance got the better of me and I needed to express how silly your claims are. KK

Many thanks for the information, help and advice Lewis; have really appreciated your consistent input over the last few days. Will definitely have a look at the NMM when I get a chance. Have to say that little IMBY ramp from you certainly got me a little more excited, a couple of inches snow cover before I leave would be absolutely perfect. Night, KK.

Just experienced a very heavy fine hail/sleet shower that lasted for a good few minutes, this following on from rainy/sleety showers on and off throughout the evening, bodes well for tomorrow/Tuesday when the colder, less marginal air starts to move in. To add to that: Looks like some pretty nice showers developing off the North-Sea from the NE/ENE, convective potential certainly + increased stability as colder uppers come in from the East... Good signs for some decent snow showers for the early part of this week IMO.

Thanks SFL Ironically I'm now experiencing a pretty heavy fine hail/sleet shower, which I suppose bodes well for tomorrow/Tuesday as colder air moves in. I'm particularly looking at snow potential for the early part of the week as I fly off to Barbados for ten days on Thursday morning and would be gutted if I didn't get to see anything from this promising cold spell, although sadly it seems as though its almost certain I'll miss out on the most potent cold which looks likely to move in late Thursday/Friday/Saturday. Will appreciate that update in regards to the NMM, am I right in thinking many regard it very highly when looking at foreasting snocw in the close time frame? KK.

The GFS seems quite confident in relatively frequent showers for the early part of this week (ie Monday afternoon into Tuesday) along the East Coast and into the South-East, which it shows will definitley be of snow (I know how difficult and unreliable such a forecast is). Does this seem likely to enventuate and is it supported by other models in regards to the frequency/type of precipitation, for instance the NAE or NMM (I think those are the correct abbreviations)? Regards, KK

Hi Mackerel, Ironically I just managed to catch the latest BBC forecast in the background while viewing the models and can confirm he (may have been Rob or Dan C) mentioned snow showers pushing into 'Eastern areas and Eastern Scotland', however as it was only on in the background I didn't see what day/s he was referring to, although you could hazard a guess that the forecast was in reference to Sunday/Monday as it seems unlikely they would go any further out. Guess that just answered your question? KK

I'm sorry, but I'm not sure how that comment by BB was in anyway 'drastic'. Seemed to be a fair and unbiased comment on what the charts on the 18z run are currently showing, with pressure higher you would expect the air to carry less precipitation, note he only said its likely to be 'slightly less' snowy (if the run was to verify perfectly). He also made an effort to show that he understands its only one run and that he understands many changes will take place before we reach the date referred to. Cheers, KK

In my opinion the GEFS has lost most of its credibility in the last few days (at least for its ability to forecast this upcoming and uncertain pattern), I mean sure they're useful in a sense, but they only really seem accurate in identifying if a particular run is an outlier or has support by the rest of the runs. Just because the Ensembles of the GFS show one thing, it doesn't really mean anything if the model itself is inaccurate - there all runs from the same model, therefore even if a certain synoptic evolution of a run has Ens support it doesn't at all mean its a certainty or as one early suggested 'picking up on a new trend', if the run as a whole is faulty. In the last few days we've seen the ensembles flip almost as quickly as the Op itself and it has sometimes been the case that the Op has lead the way in predicting an upcoming pattern, with the ensembles taking one or two runs to 'catch-up', which in at least my opinion somewhat voids the usefulness of the Ens collection as a stable platform to study general trends. (Though it must be said the ECM Ens are more accurate and reliable than those of the GEFS, and have more use in the medium/long term.) At the moment, with such uncertainty in the outlook I'm not too sure why anyone would be paying attention to one rogue 18z run from a model which has seen its shaky reliability and poor accuracy even further questioned in the last week, especially so when it goes against what nearly all of the most respected models are showing (ie ECM, UKMO, GEM if I've been reading correctly), in addition to the 'pub run's' notorious reputation for going completely off the wagon and over-blowing certain synoptic details that ultimately have a massive effect on the overall pattern. Sure we should maybe take notice of what the GFS is showing if it continues to show this trend for the 00z and 06z, but even then I would still be very skeptical given recent downfalls of the GFS, unless there was far more substantial cross-model support from particularly the UKMO/ECM.

Great news, especially for those in Scotland. I doubt any in their wildest dreams would have believed they would see this in 2010. In fact I'm sure if anyone even suggested this might be a possibility, back in, say November, they would have been completely dismissed as an ignorant cold ramper. I wonder what Ian Brown thinks about it, he has been very fair and constructive in his input of late - has he thrown in the towel for his theory of the M***** E** which, if I'm not mistaken, he claimed such a feat was actually impossible? Anyway, it must be odd for any of those younger members up in Scotland to think they have just lived through the coldest winter in almost 100 years, if not more... Has anyone got any statistics, for instance something similar to the CET but for Scotland, to compare this years temperatures to, such as 1962/63?

I think what your doing there is misreading the wind direction of the lows and highs. From what I can tell, your reading it as the winds are traveling from Canada across the Atlantic towards the UK but infact the wind is traveling in the opposite direction, from Europe across the Atlantic to Canada (winds flow anti-clockwise around low pressures ie. that big dark blue/purple mass to the West of the UK, meaning that chart is showing a South-Easterly, not a North-Westerly). The only way were going to see real cold from this situation is from an Easterly from Europe, which is what that chart shows to a degree. Don't worry about misreading the charts as your new! They are quite complicated and can take some time to get used to, I'm sure everyone here will be happy to help you out - don't be afraid to ask!