Kentish Kiwi

Surely that's two days behind if tomorrows will be Friday?

I'm pretty certain it would be a huge overstatement to call the winter of 2008/9 'extremely cold'. Cold, yes. Below average, yes. But nothing particularly severe at all really, although it was exceptional in the idea that it came after around a decade of generally mild winters. I still agree though that it would be very rare to find 3 below average winters in a row, I think Mr Data said a while back that its only happened twice in the last century.

Possibly the warmer air being cooled more at the surface level and 850 due to the entrenched cold over the land of Greenland itself but is allowed to have more of a warming effect over the relatively mild sea to the east? Hence the warm pool popping up on the east coast as it 'leap-frogs' the land from the west...

Will be very interesting to see how European snow cover responds to the general change in pattern over the next two weeks (assuming a permutation of the synoptics on offer from the models is likely), could see some big gains in Eastern Europe/Western Russia and possibly catch up to where we were last year? Basing this purely on the understanding that the less zonal flow across Europe, with pressure building to the north and east, is better for snowcover on the continent than the Tm SWerly pattern that has been prevalent these last couple of weeks?

Yes, its good to see he isn't afraid to put himself out there and really put his theory to the test. He seems genuinely interested in whether it will work out or not and in my opinion its a very welcome and fresh perspective to see. By making a prediction of such a rare occurrence means there can't be any ifs, buts of maybes as often is the case when forecasters give out vague thoughts or percentages of chance. Genuinely excited by the prospects on offer but still a long way to go as it stands. As many have already noted, one correct forecast could be purely down to luck, although it seems unlikely given what happened, but it could be that his methods are only useful as a general guide and he was just fortunate at how accurately this particular forecast turned out... Anyway, very interested in how this develops and would appreciate if someone would keep this thread updated in the coming months as I don't visit the forums he uses.

I thought today/yesterdays low was deeper than the Monday storm? Didn't the current one drop as low as 957?

Wrong thread?

Signs that the tentative early warming may have already peaked, with it taking a dive towards average, and, as many expected, will not be sustained such as we saw last November. That said, the warming itself can't hurt at all and it may still 'regather' itself and hold the Stratospheric temperature above average. At a simplified level this could be an illustration of a +QBO year compared to a -QBO one, like last year.

Do you think you could provide me with a link to the above (first) graph please CC? For me anyway it seems to be the most simple and straight forward chart to follow. Tentative yet promising early signs in regards to the above warming, even though it would seem larger-scale signals are generally against sustained warming compared to last year anyway. Cheers, KK.

Thats pretty much the timings that Northern New Zealand (Auckland northwards) experiences through the seasons and it was something I found much more pleasant than the daylight hours over here during the winter, but that's simply down to its latitude compared to the UK (<37 degrees latitude). Although it is nice having the long, light summer evenings here, I find winter hours here far to short and depressing especially as this is coupled with the extremely low and weak sun. It also seems as though alot of daylight hours in the summer are 'wasted' in the UK, with such early mornings and late evenings, though I can understand how this appeals to those early morning people out there. During the winter in Auckland (and areas further north) you could actually feel the suns warmth on a sunny, calm day making it feel quite pleasant, particularly when temperatures could reach the mid-teens under such conditions and the UV was so that you could still get slightly tanned/burnt if exposed for a good few hours, for example if you went fishing. Similar in many ways to mid-late March in the UK actually when thinking about it. Anyway, it goes a way to make the winter months far more bearable in my opinion.

Blowtorch? Really?

Is there any scientific evidence for snow cover amounts in the Northern Hemisphere (particularly Canada, USA, Scandinavia and Siberia) having any effect on the winter in the UK, even if indirectly?

I think he probably means more towards the start of the winter, as opposed to mid-Autumn, as there will be a lot of change in the atmosphere in the NH between now and then (as I'm sure you already know). Although I do agree with your thoughts on the long term signal for a southerly tracking jet-stream (three years or so now) and it would seem unlikely for this to change too drastically by winter time.

It definitely is possible and happens occasionally (although I'm not saying I agree at all with his forecast as he doesn't actually provide any basis for it... ) .Usually it means some sort of high pressure forming over/slightly to the north of the UK. This can provide the south-east with an easterly flow off the continent on the southern flank of the HP system and the potential for snow-showers off the North Sea, while most of England remains underneath the high pressure proper, lacking a direct feed off the continent, but still ends up cold due to inversion conditions under the high. Scotland can also end up in the mild section in this hypothetical set-up, being on the northern flank of the HP with milder winds from the Atlantic.

Just wanted to pop in and say that I really appreciate these updates you do J07. Obviously a topic of particular interest to me and its very nice to be able to keep up with the weather all the way down there, I often look at weatherwatch.co.nz which is quite a good read. Its also very interesting to read the discussions of the differences between NZ and the UK in terms of climate and other meteorological factors (UV etc), I get rather tired of people saying to me that NZ's climate is 'just the same as here (the UK)' or when I complain how cold it is, remarking 'aren't you used to this though with it being so snowy and cold in NZ?' obviously thinking Lord of the Rings is an accurate representation of NZ's climate! :lol: Where abouts can you view GFS charts for NZ/Australasia TWS? I've looked around a bit but can't find anything remotely comparable to the netweather chart viewer or wetterzentrale??

Probably 'nowt' considering its the "earliest since 2003"...

Flash of lightning and rumble of thunder with moderate heavy showers, very dark skies though. Was amazed to see all the convection/showers on the radar when I logged on a few minutes ago I had no idea any of it was about...

The the state and temperature of the stratosphere is definitely something to watch in the coming months as last years consistantly (yet not spectacularly) warm polar stratosphere through November can be argued to be a major factor as to what brought the cold, or at least the northerly blocking, in mid December. I'm hoping Chiono will start up a similar thread for this season as it made for very interesting, educating reading through the autumn and winter last year, with his efforts much appreciated by many on this forum including myself. What I was also reminded of is what is happening in terms of Ozone pooling. GP mentioned this on several occasions last winter and commented that it was somewhat indicative of where, and to what strength, northerly blocking might set-up. I seem to remember this was also linked to stratospheric warming? :lol: seems I spoke to soon!

And Netweather is any different?

Think your kinda running out of time for that one, only 5 more days or so and we'll be into the second half of Autumn and I certainly wouldn't call the last month and a half 'cold'. Did you mean the second half? IF 2010/11 is going to be a severe winter I think I would very much like the rest of the autumn to be pleasant and mild, as I don't think I would be able to stand 4-5 months of cold (and that's assuming spring doesn't continue with the cold). Although that said I'm definitely starting to get excited for the prospect of snow and wouldn't be too upset if we saw a good fall of a few inches in November down here :blush:

Wait, how is -20C not severe or threatening? If you're talking about the UK winter then it most certainly is both, obviously not so for Russia if that's what you were referring to. I may be entirely wrong here but this is my understanding of applying theoretical probability to the situation. If statistically getting a cold winter as a opposed to a mild one is 50/50 (like tossing a coin), then three cold winters in a row is equivalent to 12.5% (0.5x0.5x0.5), which is obviously less than getting a single cold winter (50%) or two cold winters in a row (0.25%), so after two tosses of a heads (cold winter) you are more likely to get a tails (mild winter) simply due to the law of averages/probability even though each individual toss remains 50/50...? [On second thoughts it may be more complicated then that, with the use of tree diagrams and adding up the probability of getting three cold winters - 0.125 - and then dividing it by the probability of any combination of the three. Or something along those lines which I can't properly remember...] Either way I don't think you can deny that getting three below average, or more particularly two severe, winters in a row is statistically very unlikely considering its only happened twice in the last century. The odds therefore are instantly stacked against winter 2010/11 being anything memorable, especially in terms of anything prolonged, however there is obviously more to it than just averages, and the state of the atmosphere should probably be looked at ahead of such figures (treat every situation on its own merits and all that). The info that this is the strongest Nina since 1955 is definitely something to consider, not only because from what I've read 55/56 (and 54/55 to an extent) were significantly cold winters, but also because its so far the second strongest on record it has the potential to produce a bit of a wildcard winter (not disregarding its potential to be mild) to what we expect as we don't have much to compare to it historically.

No problem at all I think it would be fair to say that the coming La Nina will have a pretty big impact on the coming winter, as it is widely forecast to peak into what is considered a strong Nina, however in regards to what particular impact it will have, I don't really have any firm idea, although other more knowledgeable users may be able to give you more information in this field. One thing I think is generally accepted is that a strong Nina is not as ominous in terms of mild, 'blowtorch' weather in the winter as a strong El Nino is, which I suppose in itself is a good starting point. Yeah, your correct that the Jet Stream is and has been generally further south than had become the norm during the early 2000's, something that can be seen from the current charts with low pressures undercutting a Siberian block which would cause an absolute meltdown on this forums were it to occur in say, January. The Jet Streams long term tendency to be further south over the last couple of years is definitely a positive in terms of good, snowy winter weather, lets just hope this trend continues through the coming winter months!

It would help if you could be more clear in regards to what you are actually asking. Firstly, are you talking about the La Nina or El Nino (El-Nina does not exist as far as I'm aware)? Secondly, either of those (La NIna being the state of the ENSO this winter) will have an impact in one way or another on our weather, however it is impossible to say that La Nina would 'influence our weather to give another cold and harsh winter' as it is simply not that clear cut... It will influence our weather, be it for a below average, average or above average winter, but there are many many more factors to take into account when making a judgement on the coming winter, as no sole teleconnection can be attributed completely to a below average winter (in general terms).

But surely that's only because it's giving a 'reading' of what the pressure patterns are at the time, and therefore if a certain pressure pattern is strong enough (with the AO/NAO giving a strong reading of negative/positive as a result), then obviously the pressure systems are able to 'override' other teleconnections/drivers, but this is not to say it is the AO which is effecting the weather. This may be a rather extreme comparison, but isn't it like saying the CET is a driver of the weather, in the sense that it gives a figure as a result of the weather and is indicative of the situation in terms of temperature, however it is obviously nothing close to a 'driver' and is simply a measurement, usually compared and contrasted to average. Chiono has gone out of his way to explain it as clearly and concisely as you could hope for, yet you still choose to argue against what seems to be a pretty straight forward and clear cut concept.

What repercussions may the timing of the peak have on our winter based on analogues SB?