Kentish Kiwi

Cape + Lifted Index looks pretty high on the GFS 06z... Personally (and this is just being greedy and hypothetical) I would love to see a mix of the GFS 00z and the 06z, with the intense heat shown over Sun/Mon/Tues on the 06z followed by the settled and increasingly warm conditions of the 00z in the medium/longer term. I wonder if such an evolution is synoptically viable...

Would be interested in hearing what Mr Data thinks of this analysis...

Any word on that westerly wind burst GP was discussing at the start of the month? I believe it was meant to be making an appearance around this time...

Anyone able to comment on this? http://news.bbc.co.u...er/forecast/447 Apparently it's predicting 28C in London on Saturday... Surely a fault? Ahh... Just realised it's the forecast for London, CANADA. :blush: Yeah, this looks a whole lot more realistic - http://news.bbc.co.u...ther/forecast/8 Very disappointing for June, has been the month I've relied on for the most sunny, settled weather over the last 6 years I've been in the UK, suppose we were overdue a below average, poor one... On an unrelated note, thought this weather girl's name was quite suitable given her area of 'expertise' - http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/uk_reviews/newsid_9513000/9513948.stm Nina Ridge

Thought this comment was an interesting counter argument to those suggesting global warming may cancel out any effects from a grand solar minimum: ""With what's happening in current times—we've added considerable amounts of carbon dioxide and methane and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere," What adds more amount of CO2, Methane, and "Green House Gases"? Does this guy know that volcanic ativity since the Earth has been around is responsible for the gases that make up the atmosphere not humans. One medium grade volcanic explosion is more disruptive to all human contributions times 4." The topic does make for quite exciting reading it must be said.

If anything it's a thing of the future!

Quite remarkable warmth in New Zealand at the moment. Can't get my head around the fact that it has been consistently warmer or at least comparable in the North of NZ to the UK for the last few weeks and temperatures look to be similar for a while yet. Saw a status on facebook saying the beaches in Auckland we're packed the other day. All this and it's officially the summer here and the winter in NZ! Only a couple of weeks until the longest/shortest day respectively... http://weatherwatch.co.nz/content/record-challenging-heat-across-sunday

Uhh, probably because people enjoy warm, sunny, dry and settled weather? Hard to imagine how that isn't obvious. I'm really not sure how good weather in the summer over north-west Europe could negatively effect tourism but if you're able to provide an explanation I'd be fascinated to hear it.

Of course it's unlikely. It's very unlikely in fact, but it's very unlikely every year. 1976 was a truly exceptional summer and by its nature is extremely rare... GP has only suggested 'shades of 1976' - what this means exactly is up for interpretation, but it most certainly does not mean he expects this year to be a repeat of that famous summer.

I'm honestly not too worried about the summer as a whole yet. I get the feeling some perspective is needed... We're only 3 days into June and the models are only reliable out to around 5-7 days and useful as a rough guide out to possibly 2 weeks at a push. There's still plenty of time for a change to the general pattern and personally I'll be looking out for this 'renewed westerly wind burst' that GP expects will occur around mid-June, which he claims will 'send the summer into overdrive' (whatever that means - but it sounds positive for heat/settled weather). Until that time passes, say the 20th of June, and if I haven't heard or seen of any developments in regards to this, I won't be getting too worried. Plenty of good summers start off poor in June and in many respects it's a good sign, I get the feeling that if we were having a sustained spell of sunshine and heat now, member would be moaning and worrying about how it 'has to break down eventually' and that it's a bad sign for July etc etc etc. It hasn't even been that bad at all from what I've experienced but that's possibly because we in the SE & EA have been having the best of the conditions (as usual). Also, it's surely far too premature to start discussing whether GP's forecast is 'bust', it's possible that the warmth and settled conditions he hinted at have simply been delayed further than was expected (it is a LRF after all so is never going to be completely accurate) but there's still plenty of time for things to improve and for June to turn out warmer & sunnier than average. Lets wait until the month is over before we start making judgments and evaluations.

Beginning to worry now that with the likely downwards correction we'll miss out on experiencing the warmest spring on record...

I really hope he was being intentionally ironic...

How did that summer turn out then? Don't think I recall it being mentioned very often on these forums...

GMTV (and other news agencies) most probably got their ideas from PWS's forecast...

It's not really that surprising is it... The snow that prevented many from purchasing during December just meant the spending was put off and instead concentrated unusually in January. I always find those headlines that state how the UK has lost X amount of money due to a particular snow event or cold spell a little misleading in that regard.

Quite some call! Though I'm sure if that kind of heat occurred at the end of July it would take a pretty poor rest of the month for it to only come in at 0.5C to 1C above normal... (assuming such heat needs to build over a number of days for a figure like that to be recorded)

I can't believe some people are arguing that hot, sunny weather doesn't have a positive impact on British tourism and as a result local economies... (if that is what people are actually arguing, I may have miss-interpreted what is being said)

Very little real rain here and things are looking just as dry, if not more than they were at the end of April. Woke up one morning to find that some overnight showers (maybe a couple of mm) had made the ground temporarily wet but quickly dried during the day and have had the odd spit of rain on a few days that's dampened the grass a little and a moderate shower on Saturday night that lasted for 10 minutes but nothing noticeable. We also completely missed out on any precip from quite a significant thunderstorm that provided areas of Sevenoaks just a couple of miles further to the south with heavy rain, hail and moderate localised flooding from what I've heard, but still thankfully got the thunder/lightning show. However, that doesn't seem to have had any impact on how brown and dry the grass is compared to here, ie. I doubt it really helped relieve the dry conditions. Would have thought we would still be around the middle single digits for mm of rainfall so far this month but that's entirely an estimation and could be quite far off the actual figure... Anyone know somewhere I could find rainfall data for a nearby location? (or alternatively have there own data that they've collected nearby?) Edit: Just gave it a quick search and found a weather station in Kenley which is reporting 5.58mm so far this month which supports my estimations nicely, has been a very dry spring here indeed.

I want the old general chat thread back

BBC weather seems to be suggesting thundery showers down here in the SE this afternoon... Anyone know if this is a possibility?

Actually that recording has almost certainly been discredited now as the result of a faulty recording instrument. I believe Mr Data had a discussion about it last month, from what I can remember he seemed to conclude that the most reliable record high temperature is the 56.7C at Death Valley, California... But even that may be a little dodgy now, especially considering it's from 1913... I'll see if I can quickly find the discussion. Ah yes, Mr D says even the Death Valley recording is possibly unreliable: "That reading has been questioned as well also back in 1926." The next highest temperature on record seems to be 54.0°C in Mitraba, Kuwait on June the 15th 2010, which I'd have thought would be a fairly reliable record given how recent it is. Discussion on the topic can be found mainly on page 3 in this thread: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69184-when-will-the-uk-get-its-first-40-c/page__st__34 I've always found heat bursts an interesting topic, but have never put too much faith in those ridiculously high recordings from the Middle East etc... I suppose it could be possible somehow though.

First measurable rain here for god knows how long.

Could see a 25C somewhere tomorrow. Will feel notably warm given the increased humidity... (Compared to recent heat which has consisted of particularly dry air.)

I'm pretty certain that would not be the case.

Not quite sure what you are on about... There was no cloud seeding for the royal wedding.