Jason T

Well very quite in here, Something weird happened at work today, got told we have got a delivery tomorrow of 28 tons of rock salt, still have 20 tons in stock. We never have a delivery of SALT in JANUARY always beginning of DECEMBER.

Well latest post from JOE B. Winter releases its icy grip.. no surprise in the north, but elsewhere, updates are needed. Now that winter is breaking, which is no surprise across the north, the question is what should bring it back? The extreme cold that I think is a sign of things to come more frequently in the coming years is now focusing its fury on eastern Asia and for the next 10-15 days in North America. The relaxation of the pattern here though begs the question, does it ever return. Given what I am seeing, I dont think so. For the north, that is not a big deal. But for the areas over the continent where I was confident that the cold would return as strong, it is a big change. The core of blocking has shifted west, with one center going back over Siberia and the other into northern and central Canada. This allows more troughines over the northeast atlantic, and the development of the positive NAO. This means the warming touted for the northwest is now getting established in the areas that were very cold and in areas that have only had minimal cold this winter. So is it over? For ALL the areas that had temps more than 1C below normal in Dec, , the possible exception Scandinavia, YES. Sometimes patterns like what we went through are like slingshots, you pull the slingshot back and then it lets go, and flies the other way. In some respects this was a double fooling, because what is going on is what I thought would happen in the US, much like 2006. Instead the cold this year instead of being focused as in Jan 2006 across all of asia is from eastern Asia through Alaska and into the US.. The result is that the cold pool is on the other side of the world so to speak and we are left in warmth. The latest European computer model indicates to me that much of the next 2-3 weeks is milder than normal precisely in the areas I thought would be cold. So this is a big admission that while nailing the first part of winter in these areas, I was wrong the second half across the continent. Again in the northwest, I think the idea was made clear the worst was in December. By the first week of Feb, a positive arctic oscillation develops and those are normally warm patterns across much of Europe. Moral is no coldest winter in a 1000 years, or 100 years ( never my forecast) and after the roaring start, an inglorious ending seems to be in the works. I will be reworking this as I study it more, but felt I had to get it out given the overall revision needed. A word about email. folks, I am swamped right now with a major US outbreak of winter, which fortunately I caught just after Christmas, and quicker than I came to the conclusion that the worst of winter was over in more places than just the UK and Ireland, which is the subject of this blog. I wont be able to answer email in any kind of complete fashion till after this winter battle in the states is done after the 20th. SL

Oh well MK i know,BUT the signals are getting really strong now for this time frame and the model thread is very much alive now,there a rumours we could top DECEMBER and as for snow fall well Jan and Feb. Some posts on there are basing current output to winter 1947,so i looked up history and data on that year and OMG well all i can say is google images jaw dropping. http://t2.gstatic.co...-z4-izlLNoFbBIg http://t1.gstatic.co...GNBla-SzlpU1J-Q http://t3.gstatic.co...PAjgugNjqkljmGu http://t2.gstatic.co...ZwzZg8BQN2DnJPQ

UPDATE ON 'RETURN OF BIG FREEZE' Taking a look at the GFS charts, I can safely say that the 'Freeze' is likely to return the week beginning 17/01. Colder air will slowly seep into Scotland and Northern Ireland, where heavy snow could cause some distruption. By midweek, the colder air will have reached the south UK. A strong NE wind could potentially cause some significant distruption to the south UK (particularly London & SE England), where situations of intense lows meeting the freezing air, resulting in heavy snowfall (similar to what we saw in February 2009, in the SE England, but perhaps worse due to colder air and more intense lows). It's slightly too early to tell, but the whole of the UK could be in for a significantly severe 4 weeks (17.01 - 7.02). Next update: 10/01/11 Bear in mind its a column of the daily mail................SL

Well brill idea, Be very interesting to see the posts from the knowledgeable,s. Also OON can someone remove that annoying topic link NEW REGIONAL THREAD it dont work. SL

Hows you MK, yep ironic really all that rain yesterday and today, if it was cold enough would have been an outstanding SNOW event for all, The rain just reminded me of how depressing and boring the uk weather can really be. However on a better note, We probably need this mild wet scenario to get that big COLD SPELL with all the trimmings,Winter NOT finished yet just delayed.

Very interesting at the moment BEN,be interesting to see what happens. Brief mild spell coming,then the fun begins.

Happy new year to all,enjoy yourselves. WINTER NOT FINISHED YET, BOY its been a good one so far....

Evening everyone,hope you all had a good xmas. Well not quite sure about this snow business later, One thing certain wont be much for awhile after tonight tomorrow anyway bit of radar watching i guess.

Happy xmas D, read your post in the mod thread, Must say if that pulls of next week new year will definitely go of with a bang. Very very interesting times ahead. Merry xmas to all aswell. SL

Found this in model thread,guessing BEN AND TEITS have read it. WeatherAction World RED WARNING for extreme weather 25-31 Dec WeatherAction forecasted weeks ahead that there will be many dangerous weather events around the world in the period 25-31 Dec and specified a triple whammy of extreme events for Britain/NW Europe, NE/E USA and South/East Queensland Australia. ALSO see here for comment "Will it or won't it on Xmas day in UK?" The period 25-31 Dec 2010 is a Weather Action Red warning (World) period with top activity expected in sub-periods 25-27th Dec & 29/30th Dec. "There will be many dangerous weather events around the world in this period", said Piers Corbyn astrophysicist of WeatherAction long range weather & climate forecasters. "Snow/blizzards/rain (where appropriate) and winds will be much more severe than standard meteorology will predict from 2 days ahead in these periods" "For Britain/Europe, NE/East USA & East Queensland Australia we have specific long range extreme weather event warnings which we first issued end Nov / early December. The extremes to come are a consequence of Jet stream blockings and changes in both hemispheres caused by predictable solar-lunar effects". For Britain and Europe we stated in forecast words & maps: Two waves of blizzards and drifting snow especially 25th-27th & 29/30th largely for East/South Britain and for a large part of NorthWest Europe (along with thundersnow) around South Scandinavia, Benelux, N Germany, North Poland and perhaps parts of the Baltic States. AND that thundersnow is likley in (North) Italy in this period also. Piers commented on 23 Dec re Xmas "Our expectation of snow in the UK on Xmas Day is at the starting edge of this Weather period so there are uncertainties. We notice short range forecasts have been changing a lot for Xmas Day which is probably a reflection of increasing solar factors which will upset standard forecasts in this period. We still expect snow in parts of the UK on Xmas day but note that the general centre of this activity appears interestingly to be shifted somewhat Eastward in Europe so snow amounts on Xmas day itself in the UK will not be large. For NE/E USA we predicted (12-12-10) Very Major snow and blizzard events will strike NE & E USA in a double hit centered around 25-27th & 29-30th Dec; One of the most significant snowfall/blizzard periods in NE & east USA for decades. For South/East Queensland eg Brisbane region of Australia 25-31 Dec we prediced (11-12-10)HEATWAVE maybe peaking at 36C to 38C around 28th but date unclear. On climate change issues Piers commented: "Standard meteorology doesn’t know what is hitting the world this Northern hemisphere winter and will continue to make serious errors throughout. They will significantly underestimate the ferocity of events especially of snow amounts in our forecasted extra activity / red warning periods, and at other times may make some overestimates. "Their forecasts for the cold / snowy parts of Europe and USA will continue to predict temperatures to return closer to normal in about a week's time but such forecasts will fail and generally be extended to further ahead on a daily basis until one of our less cold / milder periods is reached". "Standard meteorology models ignore solar and lunar factors and are associated with the failed science and falsified data of the CO2-based warmist view of climate and are bound to fail again and again. "This winter is like the battle of Stalingrad in the 'Climate war'. It will be long and hard and the public will suffer until the failed pseudo-science of man-made climate change - which become like a religion - is defeated; and instead available proven solar-based advances in forecasting science are applied to reduce misery and save lives".

Rock on TOMMY,

Well guess thats it then really for snow for now. Just like to say been an fantastic start to winter, Love being involved with the thread. Just like to wish you all a merry christmas, Dont get to drunk , Most of all if travelling about take care. Will pop in here over xmas, If by some miracle a SNOW EVENT appears then,Well be right back here with you.:smiliz19: :smiliz34: SL

Well must say hate it when it goes like this, Quite.....Lets see what happens..:smiliz19:

Hows you MK,Completey agree...Interseting times ahead possibly, Oh well last day at work today still got a good covering, so atleast it will be all white for xmas, But we never know may get a bit more.:smiliz19:

Found this but most have probably read it, No change at the mo. Freezing conditions continue up to Christmas 22 December 2010 - The freezing weather will continue as Christmas approaches with severe frosts across the UK, and heavy snow in some areas continuing to give disruption to travel networks. Snow showers will continue to affect parts of the north and east of Britain tonight and through Thursday and may become heavy and frequent across parts of East Anglia and southeast England. Met Office Chief Forecaster, Tim Hewson said: "Although the risk of widespread snow has decreased, a few eastern areas could see a further 10cm of fresh snow in places by the end of Thursday. Meanwhile, widespread ice and freezing temperatures will lead to slippery conditions on some roads and pavements over most parts of the UK." The run up to Christmas and the big day itself are expected to see a respite from fresh snowfall. However, there will be some severe frosts and freezing fog at night. While there will still be snow lying on Christmas Day, the day itself is expected to be dry and fine in most parts of the UK. At this stage, the only places that might see snow showers on Christmas Day are coastal parts east and northeast England, East Anglia and Kent.

Because thats what the regional threads are for.

But is that not aimed at kent etc on the south east corner. Sooo confused i have heard south east,and the east,far south east corner,also dry and fine. I must admit to looking at uk and europe radar 24 hours advance,grid ppn.

Is that for the entire Thread TB.

Well meto have really taken the orange of now.:smiliz57:

Had about 3 cm overall. However all gone now.

1 cm max.

I see the meto updates changed again for next week onwards. UK Outlook for Sunday 21 Nov 2010 to Tuesday 30 Nov 2010: A good deal of cloud around this weekend, showers or longer spells of rain affecting southern and eastern parts on Sunday when the far south will also be quite windy. Next week conditions will soon turn colder. Northern and eastern parts in particular will remain unsettled and, at times, windy with showers and hill snow, these showers turning increasingly wintry with a risk of snow to lower levels developing later in the week. Parts of the Midlands and Irish Sea coastal areas also at risk from wintry showers later. Temperatures largely below average for the time of year and feeling cold, especially where conditions are windy. The cold theme then continues into the last week of November, with northern and eastern parts most at risk from wintry weather. Updated: 1208 on Tue 16 Nov 2010

Thought JOE B would have done a column by now,considering the event or events approaching. The other thing i have noticed is that a lot of comments on most sites is that of complete shock within the current output set ups especially for November.Words of of sustained,snow,long cold spell are readily being used.