Matty-H

Got to admit this isn't really floating my boat at all. Just looks misty outside here in Chipping Sodbury. Plenty on the grass which is covered, hardly anything on the cars and paths/roads as it blows straight off. Give me marginal big, wet British flakes any day over this

I wouldn't describe what we've had so far as anything other than light. The snizzle looks worse blowing around, but it's talcum stuff and no real intensity here yet. Grass and kerbs are covered. It's blowing straight off cars and flat roofs

Bit of light stuff here earlier left a patchy powder cover. Cloudy and breezy here. Hoping for a covering later

A few flakes in the wind here in Chipping Sodbury. Literally no idea what to expect here tomorrow. Maybe a couple of inches, which will look wonderful. What I am sure of is the perishing cold. I’ve just got home and it is staggeringly cold out there now and increasingly windy

You’re not missing much. I’m right under it and it’s just a few flakes in the breeze

Couldn’t be more different from the ARPEGE hi res output if it tried. Basically no one and no model has a bloody clue still do they?

How is the accuracy of this model generally viewed? I’ve never really used it. EURO4 often leaves me a little sceptical. Take the 9pm to midnight chart for tonight. A blanket of pink from the top of our area north. There’s barely been more than the odd shower or flurry across this area

Much of the raw output. GFS, ECM, ARPEGE, ICON, all of these showing small amounts of snow here (where I am - North Bristol). I can’t link charts, but 18z ARPEGE shows around 6cm here total accumulation. ICON even less. GFS patchy and lighter. Check out Fergusson on Twitter, There’s a chart on there recent. He seems to allude as to it being a firming up of events (less). Someone asks him if the warning will now be scaled back tomorrow. He says depends on midnight runs Admittedly the last chart of EURO4 looks decent enough

Baffling. I cannot find any output that remotely reflects the forecast on BBC Points West this evening or the Amber zone. Nothing. Most of the output takes it across western wales and Ireland. Patchy stuff at best here. What am I missing? Are the forecasts being heavily modified with human input? It’s not even tonight. It was the same yesterday.

New warning for Friday some areas

Not too smart are you. That’s the BBC tv forecasts. DOH!!!!!

And they all use different models for their raw data. It’s that simple. Pointless

I don’t think anything. I’m telling you if you read raw data computer generated app forecasts as gospel then you are always going to be expecting weather that doesn’t happen.

You’re looking at raw data. Pointless.

One thing I would say. If the met office are still expecting this to be a real event I would expect the warning to go amber at some stage today. If it stays totally without modification by tomorrow my expectations will start to wain

Important to remember that they do still use all models and have their own experts making judgements based on all output. Fergusson, Hammond, etc all expecting snow (here)

They're also modified rather than raw data. I think I'll stick with the tv forecasts and the commentary that goes with them, that made no mention of rain. Admittedly I'm in a far better position here than the south coast

I'd watch the latest TV forecasts. They are nothing like that

Might be straw grasping, but history tells us that GFS doesn't handle these sorts of systems particularly well, os hopefully UKMO is on the money. ARPEGE hi res model is good too. Would love to be able to see MOGREPS this morning. Helps being this far north of the coast where I am as well

Indeed. A trend that has been increasing run on run since early yesterday

Depends where you look. UKMO, ARPEGE and ICON are good and show the low disrupting over the south and a period of snow here, possibly turning back to rain for a while on the south coast GFS has been forcing that low and it's snow further and further west toward Ireland and the Atlantic with every run since yesterday. We all know which one will be right don't we? Law of sod dictates that

Yeah, Cheesepuffs is a cached copy from yesterday before it was updated to remove that area. The current warning is as per Polar Bear

All the original warning still there for me. Cleared cache too

Isn’t this the same forecast as has been on the BBC site all afternoon?

True, and they are both favourable for an all snow event right down to the south coast But it’s one operational run. In the grand scheme of things it tells us very little. The bigger picture is all the info available to us from all models, and there’s is undoubtedly, currently, a marked chance of something quite noteworthy. All subject to all manner of changes at four days out though. Light years