Matty-H

My very amateur interpretation is that uppers are more favourable for an all snow event. I’m talking about southern and southwestern coastal areas now as it’s always looked an all snow for Chipping Sodbury area. My ‘concern’ is if the westerly track continues, the associated fronts will go with it. Way too far off to be sure. At the moment, and taking ALL output into consideration, the potential is there for a serious snow event.

That’ll be the showers projected to hit Devon and Cornwall on Wednesday. Check out the yellow warning for that area

But we weren’t told that at all for here (West Country). Not by one reputable outlet. Ian Fergusson also backing this up in the last hour saying no immediate concerns of snow for our region. May change later in the week. That’s an easterly for you and nothing else was ever forecast by the met office

The warmer sea track will enhance shower activity across eastern areas as the cold air passes over it, but the reality for over here is that the air is dry and it would take proper features to get anywhere near this far west It’ll be bone dry here next week *unless* we get small scale features that manage to hold integrity to get this far over, *or* as some models are showing - low pressure systems try to push in from the south, although history and experience might tell us that models can over-cook progression of lows like this under these conditions and thick, cold air, and they often end up hundreds of miles south of here A break down will come eventually. We need it come from the S or SW into the cold air to give us our best chance of a period of snow. Ideally then it would stall and regress, but that’s the dream ticket

I don’t think so really. We are relying on troughs or disturbances that may form in the flow not getting wrung out before getting this far west, or the low situation pushing up from the south that some models are showing this time next week. Other than that it’ll be largely dry here (here being South Glos). Will probably catch the odd shower/flurry

Do you have a link please? Text or video?

Steve Murr’s mother....

Haha! But of course ;-)

Hi Ian. What are the symbols that are a circle with a little dash? Look a bit like an on/off symbol on a tv etc. Thank you. Sorry, just seen above reply to this exact question. Being picky I noticed one right at the end of the channel in this area

It's not so much it reaching here, it's its intensity by the time it does. The MetO high resolution model has it starting to lose intensity very quickly though the evening. It'll be late evening before it makes it here I think. Of course it's a nowcast situation and developing with each passing hour. Time will tell as they say Lager, Bitter or Cider?

Well, if we get a pasting here just north of Bristol I'll buy you a pint TC

Yes, maybe. The shortwave was mentioned last night on various forums. The northerly/northeasterly track is still evident on the looping radar images at present.

Hmmm.... There appears to be a slight tilt on the axis of the front. This could well end up further south and further east than my patch. TC, I hope you're right about Bristol. I'm not convinced right now, but not doubting your analysis

Ian Fergusson continues the downgrade: http://www.bbc.co.uk...r/ianfergusson/ Snow for high ground across Devon/Cornwall. Rain for lower ground. Some light snow for more northern West Country areas