[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Got to admit this isn't really floating my boat at all. Just looks misty outside here in Chipping Sodbury. Plenty on the grass which is covered, hardly anything on the cars and paths/roads as it blows straight off. Give me marginal big, wet British flakes any day over this

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

I wouldn't describe what we've had so far as anything other than light. The snizzle looks worse blowing around, but it's talcum stuff and no real intensity here yet. Grass and kerbs are covered. It's blowing straight off cars and flat roofs

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Bit of light stuff here earlier left a patchy powder cover. Cloudy and breezy here. Hoping for a covering later

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

A few flakes in the wind here in Chipping Sodbury. Literally no idea what to expect here tomorrow. Maybe a couple of inches, which will look wonderful. 

What I am sure of is the perishing cold. I’ve just got home and it is staggeringly cold out there now and increasingly windy

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

27 minutes ago, khodds said:

I’m Going to be to far south for this to hit I think ?. 

You’re not missing much. I’m right under it and it’s just a few flakes in the breeze

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

1 minute ago, Mark N said:

Snow depth from Hirlam 18z. 

Couldn’t be more different from the ARPEGE hi res output if it tried. 

Basically no one and no model has a bloody clue still do they?

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Just now, Mark N said:

HIRLAM really has nailed it  

 

How is the accuracy of this model generally viewed? I’ve never really used it. 

EURO4 often leaves me a little sceptical.  Take the 9pm to midnight chart for tonight. A blanket of pink from the top of our area north. There’s barely been more than the odd shower or flurry across this area

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

10 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

??? Not sure where your getting your information from but Snow charts from above posters show huge snowfalls possible over you and most of the SW. In addition BBC TV and Met Office predictions are currently onboard with heavy snow for our area.

Much of the raw output. GFS, ECM, ARPEGE, ICON, all of these showing small amounts of snow here (where I am - North Bristol). I can’t link charts, but 18z ARPEGE shows around 6cm here total accumulation. ICON even less. GFS patchy and lighter. 

Check out Fergusson on Twitter, There’s a chart on there recent. He seems to allude as to it being a firming up of events (less). Someone asks him if the warning will now  be scaled back tomorrow. He says depends on midnight runs

Admittedly the last chart of EURO4 looks decent enough

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Baffling. I cannot find any output that remotely reflects the forecast on BBC Points West this evening or the Amber zone. Nothing. Most of the output takes it across western wales and Ireland. Patchy stuff at best here. What am I missing? Are the forecasts being heavily modified with human input? It’s not even tonight. It was the same yesterday. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

New warning for Friday some areas

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Funny that, just a few minutes ago you said this: Important to remember that they do still use all models

*added to the ignore list 

Not too smart are you. That’s the BBC tv forecasts. DOH!!!!!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

And they all use different models for their raw data. It’s that simple. Pointless 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I don't care if you think it's pointless. What POINT is there in having an app in the first place? The MetO app didn't show this.

I don’t think anything. I’m telling you if you read raw data computer generated app forecasts as gospel then you are always going to be expecting weather that doesn’t happen. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Oh yeah.. the BBC forecast a couple of weeks ago showed a day where heavy hail showers were supposed to fall all day. That didn't happen.

You’re looking at raw data. Pointless. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

One thing I would say. If the met office are still expecting this to be a real event I would expect the warning to go amber at some stage today. If it stays totally without modification by tomorrow my expectations will start to wain

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

The snow forecast for later tomorrow looks like missing our area. Hitting the N Midlands then forecast to head into mid-Wales. Last night's forecasts had its remnants heading through Cotswolds and down through Bristol and into N Somerset.

Late Thurs/Fri? Wait and see re exact track.

The issue with Beeb forecasts now is that they use Meteogroup so are no longer from the Meto. Is your preference Met Office OR Meteogroup? I've noticed slight differences in accuracy over last week or so.

Important to remember that they do still use all models and have their own experts making judgements based on all output. Fergusson, Hammond, etc all expecting snow (here)

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

The TV graphics are a lower resolution than that on the website.

They're also modified rather than raw data. I think I'll stick with the tv forecasts and the commentary that goes with them, that made no mention of rain.

Admittedly I'm in a far better position here than the south coast

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I know their graphics are hard to distinguish .. haha

 

I'd watch the latest TV forecasts. They are nothing like that

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

1 minute ago, Barometer Obama said:

The ukmo is sticking to pretty good for us. Even somewhere between the two would probably work. I just hope the gfs is heading in the wrong direction 

Might be straw grasping, but history tells us that GFS doesn't handle these sorts of systems particularly well, os hopefully UKMO is on the money. ARPEGE hi res model is good too. Would love to be able to see MOGREPS this morning. 

Helps being this far north of the coast where I am as well

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

1 minute ago, Barometer Obama said:

the worry is the gfs and Ecm are pushing it further west, that trend needs to change.

Indeed. A trend that has been increasing run on run since early yesterday

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

2 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Latest output looks good for Thursday/Friday 

Depends where you look. UKMO, ARPEGE and ICON are good and show the low disrupting over the south and a period of snow here, possibly turning back to rain for a while on the south coast

GFS has been forcing that low and it's snow further and further west toward Ireland and the Atlantic with every run since yesterday. We all know which one will be right don't we? Law of sod dictates that

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Yeah, Cheesepuffs is a cached copy from yesterday before it was updated to remove that area. The current warning is as per Polar Bear

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

All the original warning still there for me. Cleared cache too

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Isn’t this the same forecast as has been on the BBC site all afternoon?

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Just now, AWD said:

It's not just about the 850hpa values though.  I would like to see accompanied surface temps and DP's to have a decent call at the resultant weather on the ground on Friday/Saturday.

The UKMO & EC are so vastly different though, that neither can be taken with great confidence currently.

True, and they are both favourable for an all snow event right down to the south coast

But it’s one operational run. In the grand scheme of things it tells us very little. The bigger picture is all the info available to us from all models, and there’s is undoubtedly, currently, a marked chance of something quite noteworthy. All subject to all manner of changes at four days out though. Light years