Matty-H
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Posts posted by Matty-H
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1 hour ago, AWD said:
Worth noting, the Meto SW forecast for Tuesday - Wednesday now mentions "locally disruptive accumulations".
Looks like they area forecasting an increase in snow shower activity midweek across the SW now.
That’ll be the showers projected to hit Devon and Cornwall on Wednesday. Check out the yellow warning for that area
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39 minutes ago, Rapodo said:
Well looking at predicted totals for down here hardly worth raving about is it. Expectations gone right out the window today. Cold yes snowy disruption like we was told. No.
But we weren’t told that at all for here (West Country). Not by one reputable outlet.
Ian Fergusson also backing this up in the last hour saying no immediate concerns of snow for our region. May change later in the week. That’s an easterly for you and nothing else was ever forecast by the met office
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6 minutes ago, Bobd29 said:
Hi, a question for the more knowledgeable. I understand why more eastern counties would be favoured for snow of course but with very cold air arriving next week would this not become quite unstable travelling over the North Sea creating troughs that could easily reach the West Country? Indeed could these be quite numerous and intensive as time goes by? Perhaps I am looking at a straw to clutch!
The warmer sea track will enhance shower activity across eastern areas as the cold air passes over it, but the reality for over here is that the air is dry and it would take proper features to get anywhere near this far west
It’ll be bone dry here next week *unless* we get small scale features that manage to hold integrity to get this far over, *or* as some models are showing - low pressure systems try to push in from the south, although history and experience might tell us that models can over-cook progression of lows like this under these conditions and thick, cold air, and they often end up hundreds of miles south of here
A break down will come eventually. We need it come from the S or SW into the cold air to give us our best chance of a period of snow. Ideally then it would stall and regress, but that’s the dream ticket
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1 hour ago, offerman said:
Why are there no snow warnings out for West Country ? Only east? Surely with these charts wind flows and cold depths there must be some snow that would make its way to the west or even bumping from the south-west and turn to snow
I don’t think so really. We are relying on troughs or disturbances that may form in the flow not getting wrung out before getting this far west, or the low situation pushing up from the south that some models are showing this time next week. Other than that it’ll be largely dry here (here being South Glos). Will probably catch the odd shower/flurry
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9 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:
BBC extended outlook forecast just updated goes for widespread snowsouth and southwest england later next week.
Do you have a link please? Text or video?
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Just now, Rapodo said:
Just had the weirdest experience at work no joke. A 90+ year old women who I do work for just grabbed my hands staring at me in eyes and saying to prepare myself and family for extreme snow as she can "feel" it coming! She looked demonized! Very very odd. Freaked me right out considering she's not seen any charts.
Steve Murr’s mother....
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Matty always the cautions man, I didn't even notice it, to busy looking at all the x's over the Cotswolds (middle bit of the Cotswolds, south Cotswolds and Yate are way off of my radar
) lol,Haha! But of course ;-)
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Latest modified GM for 12z Sun. Compare to FAX. Takes ensemble mean position. Note rain-snow discrimination thro Somerset etc is clearly clearly not to be taken literally at this range. Shorter sea track further E on S Coast enhances snow potential, as per event in Jan.
Hi Ian. What are the symbols that are a circle with a little dash? Look a bit like an on/off symbol on a tv etc. Thank you.
Sorry, just seen above reply to this exact question. Being picky I noticed one right at the end of the channel in this area
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I'm not sure why people are so skeptical about it reaching Bristol? I'll look forward to that pint later Matty
It's not so much it reaching here, it's its intensity by the time it does. The MetO high resolution model has it starting to lose intensity very quickly though the evening. It'll be late evening before it makes it here I think.
Of course it's a nowcast situation and developing with each passing hour.
Time will tell as they say
Lager, Bitter or Cider?
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This, as expected has not changed very much at all. Remains the same from a couple of days ago.
Sorry about the rough and ready graphic
Well, if we get a pasting here just north of Bristol I'll buy you a pint TC
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This is to be expected its the shortwave developing, this will run east, it means that rather than having a short period of snow the front will slow so favoured areas could get quite alot.
Yes, maybe. The shortwave was mentioned last night on various forums. The northerly/northeasterly track is still evident on the looping radar images at present.
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Hmmm.... There appears to be a slight tilt on the axis of the front. This could well end up further south and further east than my patch.
TC, I hope you're right about Bristol. I'm not convinced right now, but not doubting your analysis
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Ian Fergusson continues the downgrade:
http://www.bbc.co.uk...r/ianfergusson/
Snow for high ground across Devon/Cornwall. Rain for lower ground. Some light snow for more northern West Country areas
South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
My very amateur interpretation is that uppers are more favourable for an all snow event. I’m talking about southern and southwestern coastal areas now as it’s always looked an all snow for Chipping Sodbury area. My ‘concern’ is if the westerly track continues, the associated fronts will go with it. Way too far off to be sure. At the moment, and taking ALL output into consideration, the potential is there for a serious snow event.